The Heat host the Rockets at Kaseya Center on Saturday, February 28, at 3:30 PM ET. The Rockets enter 37-21 as the West’s No. 3 seed, while the Heat are 31-29 and eighth in the East.
Home and road form are impactful here because the Heat are 17-11 in their building, and the Rockets are 17-14 away from home.
The Rockets come in off a 113-108 win over the Magic on Thursday, while the Heat dropped a 124-117 decision to the 76ers the same night.
This is the first meeting of the season, so the matchup is clean and the scouting is fresh. Kevin Durant is giving the Rockets 26.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.5 assists, with Alperen Sengun at 20.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 6.4 assists.
Tyler Herro checks in at 21.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists, and Bam Adebayo is at 18.5 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 2.9 assists.
The hook is simple: both teams can score, but the injury list tilts the margin toward the visitors with Norman Powell out, as he’s been the Heat’s leading scorer this campaign.
Injury Report
Rockets
Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee ACL repair)
Jabari Smith Jr.: Out (right ankle sprain)
Steven Adams: Out (left ankle surgery)
Jae’Sean Tate: Out (right knee sprain)
Heat
Norman Powell: Out (right groin strain)
Nikola Jovic: Out (lower back injury management)
Terry Rozier: Out (not with team)
Why The Heat Have The Advantage
The scoreboard pressure is real. The Heat rank 2nd in points per game at 119.9, and they do it without playing a sloppy style.
The ball moves, consistently. They’re 7th in assists per game at 28.8, which matters against a Rockets defense that wants to win possessions with physicality and the glass.
The rebounding profile is good enough to keep them from getting buried by one of the league’s best rebounding teams. The Heat are 4th in total rebounds per game at 55.9, so they have a workable path to limiting second shots.
They also score with decent shooting efficiency, but not elite. Their effective field goal percentage sits at 53.5% (19th), which is fine, but it leaves less margin if the Rockets turn this into a grinding, low-efficiency game.
The risk is the defensive baseline. The Heat are 20th in opponent points per game at 117.2, so if they don’t control the ball and keep the Rockets out of second chances, they can give up a scoring number they can’t comfortably chase with key pieces missing.
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
The Rockets’ identity starts with defense. They’re 3rd in opponent points per game at 109.1, and that gives them a stable floor even when the offense isn’t humming.
The possession game is their clearest edge. They lead the league in total rebounds per game at 58.6, and that’s the most direct way to punish a defense that’s been leaky overall.
There’s also real rim protection. They sit at 6.0 blocks per game, one of the league’s top marks, which helps hold up against drive-heavy nights.
On offense, it’s less about volume scoring and more about shot-making and shot quality. The Rockets are 10th in shooting percentage at 47.5% and 6th in three-point percentage at 37.2%, which is a clean way to keep pace without needing to run.
The constraint is creation-through-passing. They’re 25th in assists per game at 24.8, so when the game tightens, they can drift into “your turn, my turn” possessions. Against a team that scores 119.9 a night, empty trips add up fast.
X-Factors
Davion Mitchell is the Heat’s structure piece. He’s at 8.9 points with 7.0 assists, and with the backcourt banged up, his job is to keep the Heat’s offense connected so the shot quality doesn’t collapse into late-clock jumpers.
Andrew Wiggins is the Heat’s most reliable two-way wing in this setup. He’s putting up 16.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 2.8 assists, and if he can generate a few self-created buckets without dragging the offense into turnovers, the Heat can survive the stretches where the Rockets’ defense starts winning possessions.
Pelle Larsson is a swing piece because the Heat need secondary creation and clean decisions. He’s at 10.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.4 assists, and if he keeps the ball moving and knocks down open looks, it changes how aggressively the Rockets can help off the perimeter.
Amen Thompson’s minutes can swing the tone of the game because he adds pressure without needing plays called for him. He’s producing 17.3 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 5.3 assists, and if he turns rebounds into early offense and gets the Heat rotating, the Rockets’ scoring comes easier even in a slower environment.
Tari Eason is the Rockets’ possession-maker. He’s at 11.5 points and 6.3 rebounds, and his value here is simple: extra boards and extra physicality against a Heat team that needs clean half-court possessions to keep its offense stable.
Prediction
I’m taking the Rockets. The injury list makes this feel like a possession game more than a pure shot-making contest, and the Rockets have the clearest advantage there with the league’s top rebounding rate and a top-three points-allowed profile. If they keep the Heat to one shot and avoid gifting transition opportunities, the path is straightforward.
Prediction: Rockets 112, Heat 107
