In one of the most exciting opening series of the postseason, 76ers host the Celtics in Game 4 at Xfinity Mobile Arena on Sunday, at 7 p.m. ET. The Celtics lead the first-round series 2-1 after winning Game 3, 108-100, and taking home-court advantage back. Game 4 is simple for the 76ers: win, and the series is tied. Lose, and they go back to the Celtics down 3-1.
The series has been uneven. The Celtics won Game 1 by 32, the 76ers answered with a 111-97 win in Game 2, then the Celtics survived a tighter Game 3. Through three games, the Celtics are averaging 109.3 points, 46.0 rebounds, and 25.3 assists. The 76ers are averaging 100.7 points, 39.7 rebounds, and 18.7 assists. The scoring gap matters, but the rebounding and assist gaps explain more about how the series has looked.
Jaylen Brown has been the best scorer in the series, averaging 29.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 3.7 assists on 50.8% from the field and 50.0% from three. Jayson Tatum is at 23.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 7.7 assists. For the 76ers, Tyrese Maxey is carrying the offense with 27.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 7.7 assists, while Paul George is averaging 18.0 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 3.0 assists.
Injury Report
76ers
Joel Embiid: Doubtful (post-appendectomy surgery recovery)
Kelly Oubre Jr.: Questionable (right adductor soreness)
Celtics
No players listed.
Why The 76ers Have The Advantage
The 76ers’ best argument is not complicated: they have the best downhill creator in the series right now. Maxey has scored 21, 29, and 31 points in the first three games. He is only shooting 39.2% from the field, but the volume is necessary with Joel Embiid out. In Game 3, Maxey had 31 points and six assists, and he was the reason the 76ers were still within one possession deep into the fourth quarter.
The adjustment is about making his work easier. In Game 3, the 76ers scored 42 points in the paint and had only 11 turnovers. That part worked. The problem was spacing around it. VJ Edgecombe shot 0-of-7 from three, and the 76ers made only 12 threes as a team. In Game 2, they made 19 threes and won by 14. The difference is obvious. They do not need to become a jump-shooting team, but they need enough made threes to keep the Celtics from crowding Maxey’s drives.
George also has to stay aggressive earlier. His Game 3 line was solid, with 18 points and five assists on 7-of-14 shooting, but he had no control in long stretches. The 76ers need him as a pressure point, not just as a secondary scorer. If he forces Brown or Tatum to defend through screens, the Celtics’ late-game offense gets harder.
The 76ers also won the turnover battle in Game 3. They committed 11 turnovers, while the Celtics had 17. That should have been enough to steal the game. The next step is turning those extra possessions into cleaner transition chances. The Celtics had only five fast-break points in Game 3, but the 76ers scored only nine. That is not enough when Joel Embiid is out.
Why The Celtics Have The Advantage
The Celtics have the better late-game structure. Game 3 showed it. The 76ers had the push, the crowd, and Maxey’s scoring, but the Celtics closed with Brown and Tatum making the cleanest decisions. Brown finished with 25 points, seven rebounds, four assists, and three blocks. Tatum had 25 points, five rebounds, and seven assists, while hitting 5-of-9 from three.
The biggest adjustment from Game 2 was shot quality. In Game 2, the Celtics went 13-of-50 from three and looked too dependent on tough perimeter attempts. In Game 3, they still took 47 threes, but made 20 of them. More important, Payton Pritchard and Nikola Vucevic gave them real spacing from the bench. Pritchard hit five threes. Vucevic hit three. That changed the floor when the 76ers tried to load up on Tatum and Brown.
The Celtics also keep winning the glass. They have outrebounded the 76ers 138-119 in the series. In Game 3, they won rebounds 45-37 and second-chance points 22-17. That is a problem for the 76ers because they are already playing without Embiid. If Adem Bona and Andre Drummond cannot keep the Celtics off the offensive glass, the 76ers need near-perfect shooting to survive.
The Celtics do have one issue to clean up: turnovers. Their 17 turnovers in Game 3 kept the 76ers alive. The 76ers are not scoring enough in the half-court to win if the Celtics protect the ball. That is why Game 4 feels like a discipline test.
X-Factors
VJ Edgecombe is the 76ers’ swing player. He is averaging 17.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 3.3 assists, but his series has been uneven. Game 2 was massive: 30 points, 10 rebounds, and 6-of-10 from three. Game 3 was the opposite: 10 points, 10 rebounds, and 0-of-7 from three. If Edgecombe gives the 76ers another Game 2 shooting night, the series can turn.
Kelly Oubre Jr. matters even more because of the injury report. He is averaging 13.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, and had 17 points in Game 3. If he cannot play, or if the adductor soreness limits him, the 76ers lose a wing who can defend Brown and run the floor. That would push more pressure onto George and Edgecombe.
Payton Pritchard is the Celtics’ cleanest bench swing. He is averaging 10.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 4.3 assists in the series. Game 3 was his best game: 15 points on 5-of-10 from three. The Celtics do not need him to run the offense for long stretches. They need him to punish help defense. He did that in Game 3.
Nikola Vucevic is another key piece because the 76ers are attacking the paint. He is averaging 7.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.7 assists, but Game 3 was his most useful game: 11 points, six rebounds, four assists, and three blocks. If he holds up defensively, the Celtics can keep spacing the floor without giving too much back inside.
Prediction
The 76ers have the urgency, the home floor, and Maxey is playing well enough to give them a real chance. But the Celtics have more answers. They have won the rebounding battle, they have the better shot profile, and Brown has been the most reliable scorer in the series. Unless Embiid returns and looks close to himself, the Celtics should have enough late-game control to win another tight one.
Prediction: Celtics 106, 76ers 101
