The NBA’s free agency period just after the conclusion of the NBA Finals is always one of the most exciting times of the year. It is the start of a brand new season, with fans anticipating where their favorite players may end up while others speculate on the great signing or mistakes their team may make. Being overpaid is never something that falls on the shoulders of just the player being signed. There are two sides to the deal, with the organization targeting the free agents they know they want and making sure they end up with them that offseason by throwing them a bit more cash.
Of course, plenty of players have not lived up to a massive contract inked during free agency. Today, we will focus on the unrestricted free agents who are set to hit the market after the 2023 season has concluded. These players are most likely to be overpaid due to a few reasons in addition to the ones above. There can be a slim field of choices at their position, and a team may find themselves in a bidding war for his services. Maybe this player had an eye-opening end to the regular season and run in the playoffs that earned them big contracts. Maybe these general managers and scouts see these players as the next great scorers and passers in the NBA. Regardless of the reason, we believe that the 10 players below will be seeing big money this summer, even if it isn’t warranted.
These are the 2023 free agents that are most likely to be overpaid this offseason.
10. Yuta Watanabe
Yuta Watanabe had the type of 2022-23 season that we have seen plenty of players handsomely rewarded for in the past. No, I am not talking about his total body of work during the 2022-23 season but one aspect of his game that every team wants. With the Brooklyn Nets this season, Yuta appeared in 58 games off the bench and saw an average of 16.0 minutes played per game. He averaged 5.6 PPG and 2.4 RPG, which are both career highs.
The part of his game that I am speaking of is his three-point shooting. Watanabe shot a blazing 44.4% from three this year on an average of 2.3 attempts. After making $1,84 million in 2022-23, I expect at least one team to bid on his services this summer. I can honestly see a team in need of shooters off their bench giving him at least $5 million per season, which would be a massive overpay based on potential and not track record. It also depends on if that team will give Watanabe more of a chance on the court than Brooklyn did. This isn’t to say that Yuta doesn’t deserve the money because he probably does, but shouldn’t we see more results before handing out the big contract?
9. Max Strus
Max Strus has the best season of his young career with the Miami Heat in 2022-23. What has been even more eye-opening has been his contributions in the NBA playoffs. During the regular season, Strus averaged a career-high 11.5 PPG on 41.0% shooting overall and 10.2 PPG on 49.2% shooting overall, and 38.8% from three. Strus’ situation is a unique one in that he certainly looks to be a part of Miami’s future plans. The issue is 29 other teams who will most likely try to pry him away from South Beach.
With that being said, money may not be a motivator for Strus, who made $1.82 million in 2022-23, less than the previously mentioned Yuta Watanabe. As the clear better option for teams, Strus is likely to command somewhere between $7 million and $9 million this offseason. Strus has been an asset for Miami ever since joining them in 2020-21. This is likely to drive up the price to the point that other teams bow out if Miami is dead set on keeping him. It will be an interesting scenario to unfold in South Florida over the next few months as the Heat continue to pursue an NBA championship.
8. Jakob Poeltl
At the 2022-23 NBA trade deadline, one of the league’s most sought-after players was Jakob Poeltl of the San Antonio Spurs. Eventually, Poeltl was dealt to the Raptors, where he played 26 games and averaged 13.1 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 1.2 SPG, and 1.3 BPG. What Poeltl provides is a big and physical presence on the interior on both sides of the ball. His rebounding skills and defensive abilities are what make him a player that many teams will be bidding on once free agency opens up.
In 2022-23 with the Spurs and Raptors, Poeltl made $9.39 million. With the lack of impactful big men on the open market, teams will certainly get themselves into a bidding war over the seven-year big man. Poeltl could be a boost to any team’s defensive plans as well as physicality that seems to become increasingly rare today. I expect Poeltl to get a contract between $10 million and $15 million this season which would put him in the same range as players like P.J. Tucker and Mo Bamba.
7. Christian Wood
As a Dallas Mavericks fan for over 25 years, Christian Wood’s 2022-23 season was a disappointment by many standards. First, Wood was clearly not in coach Jason Kidd’s good graces for a good majority of the season, as he sat in crunch time on multiple occasions and didn’t see the court as much as he would have hoped. Also, Wood is a talented offensive player with the ability to hit shots from the outside. However, his defensive effort and ability to make stops are less than average at best, making him almost a liability on that side of the ball.
Dallas extended multiple contract offers to Wood during this season which he and his management team declined. This means that Wood is looking for a certain price point, or he just doesn’t want to be in Dallas, considering how their season unfolded. In 2022-23, Wood made $14.32 million. Chances are at least one team takes a chance and offers him close to $16 million to $18 million per year to join them, which would put him in the same class of players as Markelle Fultz, Davis Bertans, and Duncan Robinson, which are three players I would also classify as overpaid.
6. Jerami Grant
Let me start by saying that I absolutely love the way that Jerami Grant plays basketball. He is fast, smart, and can get hot enough to carry a team to victory at any time. The only issue is that we haven’t seen Jerami Grant do it on an actual contender in years. When he was with the Nuggets in 2020, Grant averaged 12.0 PPG in 71 appearances and 24 starts. Since then, with the Pistons and Trail Blazers, Grant has averaged 20.7 PPG and 1.0 BPG on 44.5% shooting overall and 37.2% from three.
Now, being a 20.0 PPG scorer is no easy feat in the NBA, and it certainly warrants attention and a nice payday. However, there needs to be some compromise when we consider that Grant has done this for three straight seasons on teams that missed the playoffs all three seasons. Do I think Grant is worth a nice contract? Absolutely. Do I think he deserves to make the $21 million he made in 2022-23? Maybe. The problem is I think we are looking at a massive deal for Grant, around $25 million to $27 million, which I do not think his impact on success or lack thereof is meant to bring in that much money.
5. Nikola Vucevic
There is no denying the talent that Nikola Vucevic has possessed over the last 12 seasons in the NBA. He has developed into a decent scorer, passer, and great rebounder over that time. In 2022-23, Vucevic averaged 17.6 PPG and 11.0 RPG in 83 games played for the Chicago Bulls. Any team in need of a scoring and rebounding big man will hop on the opportunity to sign him this offseason in a heartbeat.
The only issue with that is his defense. Interior defenders are still the most important defenders in basketball despite the game moving further and further away from the basket. There were more than just a few instances during last year’s disappointing run for Chicago in which the blame could be solely placed on Vucevic’s inability to stop an opposing player. Whether it be as a rotational defender from the weak side or as the primary defender on the ball, Vucevic had too many times that he was no match for his adversary. It is likely that Vucevic’s name and the lack of free-agent centers are going to earn him a deal close to if not more than, the $22 million he earned in 2022-23. If that is the case, then yes, Nikola Vucevic will be highly overpaid.
4. Kevin Love
Kevin Love is an NBA legend and a member of one of the most legendary first-name groups in NBA history. Putting aside what he has done in the past, however, Love is nearing the end of his career, although he can still be effective if placed in the correct system. He has proven that to be true ever since he arrived in Miami after being bought out by the Cavaliers. Love was paid just north of $28 million by Cleveland this season and $3.1 million by the Heat for the remainder of the year while averaging 8.2 PPG and 6.4 RPG.
At just over 34 years old, Love is clearly beginning to decline as a contributing NBA player. As a matter of fact, I predicted he might even be out of the league at the season’s end. As big of a stretch as that could be, Love will most likely get a deal based on his name and what he has done in the past alone. Love will get offers over the $3.1 million he is making with Miami, and as far as I can tell from what I have seen on the court over the last year, that is an overpay if I have ever seen one.
3. D’Angelo Russell
One of the best stories of the season after the trade deadline and the NBA playoffs has to be the resurgence of D’Angelo Russell and what he has brought to a Lakers team close to advancing to the Western Conference Finals. Russell has been both aggressive and methodical with his play and stepped up as a primary scorer on more than one occasion for a Lakers team that needed it desperately. His play will most likely grab him a massive payday, whether that be from the Lakers or some other team in need of production from the point guard position.
There is one big issue that I see with this. If Russell leaves the Lakers due to a big-money contract, will he even fit in with that team’s plans and schemes? I mean, we saw how rough his play was in Minnesota under pressure, and we have seen him do a complete 180-degree turn in Los Angeles. What is to say that Russell doesn’t have the same issues with yet another new team? Personally, I believe Russell is already overpaid, making just over $31 million in 2022-23 with the Lakers. If someone signs him for an amount similar or even, say, $27 to $29 million, to me, that will be an overpay until we see how he fits and if he can repeat the success he has had in his second stint as a Laker.
2. Russell Westbrook
I really dislike the fact that I have to include Russell Westbrook on this list. I have been a fan of his since his days at UCLA, where he showed that his future was brighter than many point guards who excel at that level. Obviously, Westbrook has been the subject of unfair and unwarranted slander since joining the Lakers in 2021-22 while still on a massive deal with the Wizards, making over $85.5 million between 2022 and 2023. After the Lakers debacle, Westbrook signed with the Clippers where he may just get more big money due to the playoff performance he just turned in.
I would like to make it clear that I think Westbrook could end up being underpaid as well. At this point, I don’t believe he is in it for the money but rather for the love of the game. Westbrook stepped up in a big way for the Clippers this postseason in the absence of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, averaging 23.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG, and 7.4 APG. I am willing to bet that more than one team took notice of how good he still is if he can have some control over the offense like he was unable to do with the Lakers. If that is the case, the Clippers may find themselves in a bidding war for his services, making an overpay much more likely.
1. Kyrie Irving
Let me be clear about my stance on Kyrie Irving before I get into his potential salary. I am extremely fond of him as a basketball player and as a man who stands for the things he believes in. However, there is no denying that with the amount of skill, he has and the attention he garners from the things he says, he is a distraction wherever he goes. It also seems like no coincidence that the Mavericks absolutely imploded after acquiring Irving in a deal with the Nets just days before the trade deadline.
Moving forward, Kyrie Irving will undoubtedly be the most sought-after free agent this offseason. Once again, his talent and skill are that damn good. Is he worth the price it will likely cost for his services? That depends on what you are willing to sacrifice. It seems like team chemistry turns into an issue wherever he goes, as does the amount of time he actually spends on the court. Irving played 60 games in 2022-23 and made $38.92 million for the season. Most likely, it will cost a team around that to gain his services for the 2023-24 season. I will leave it up to the fans. Are you paying $40 million to $45 million for 60 games and a massive hit to the depth you can add to your roster with that kind of cash?
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