The Philadelphia 76ers ended their three-game losing streak with a 126-122 win over the Utah Jazz at Wells Fargo Center on Sunday. While the players were thrilled with the win, it does hurt the 76ers’ chances of keeping their 2025 first-round pick.
The Oklahoma City Thunder currently own that draft pick, but it is top-six protected. With this upcoming draft class held in high regard, the 76ers would love to hold on to that pick, but this win over the Jazz has put them in a bit of a difficult position.
The 76ers now have a 22-41 record this season and have created a little bit of separation between themselves and the 21-42 Brooklyn Nets for the seventh-worst record in the NBA this season. That gives them the seventh-best odds in the lottery, and that’s not something they’d want.
As things stand, the 76ers have about a 68% chance of drafting at seven or lower in the 2025 NBA Draft. That means there is just a 32% chance they keep their pick, which is not ideal, to say the least.
Now, you might think a one-game difference isn’t anything too significant, but the Nets are in complete freefall. They have lost seven games in a row, and their schedule for the rest of the season is quite rough, too. Their remaining opponents have an average win rate of 51.6%, and you wouldn’t fancy their chances of getting too many wins.
The 76ers, meanwhile, have a much easier schedule the rest of the way. Their opponents have an average win rate of 46.1%, and they’re going to win at least some of those contests. At this point, you’d have a hard time imagining they’d have a worse record than the Nets come the end of the season.
With the 13-49 Washington Wizards, 15-49 Utah Jazz, 15-48 Charlotte Hornets, and the 17-48 New Orleans Pelicans almost certain to finish with the four worst records this season, the 76ers need to hope that the 21-43 Toronto Raptors start winning some more games.
The Raptors recently went on a three-game winning streak, which put them within striking distance of the 76ers. They have the easiest remaining schedule, too, with an average win rate of 37.2%. So, they are the ones most likely to give the 76ers a better shot at keeping their pick.
The 76ers and Raptors will be facing off on March 12 and March 30, and those two games could well decide who finishes with the worse record. If it is the 76ers, and they end up finishing with the sixth-best lottery odds, they’d have about a 46% chance of keeping the pick. That number would still be a bit low for their liking, but it’s a lot better than 32%.
It is incredible, though, that this is the kind of conversation we’re having regarding the 76ers in March. This was a team expected to be one of the best in the Eastern Conference after signing Paul George in free agency. The injury bug struck, though, with George and Joel Embiid missing big chunks of the season.
Embiid has been ruled out for the season now, and his future in the league even seems somewhat in jeopardy. Talk about a season from hell.
The Thunder, meanwhile, will have been relishing in the 76ers’ misery. They got that pick for taking on Al Horford’s big contract in a trade in 2020, and that could turn out to be a masterstroke.
If the Thunder do not get the pick this year, it will be top-four protected in 2026. With the 76ers’ injury concerns, that might turn out to be a great pick, too.
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