The 2024 NBA Draft is being heralded as a historically weak class, with no major needle-movers available at the top. Ryen Rusilo of The Ringer spoke to an anonymous NBA team member who said the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft is the same as selecting Mavericks’ rookie Dereck Lively II or free agent forward Tobias Harris.
“This is essentially like Dereck Lively or Tobias Harris being the No. 1 overall pick.”
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Lively was the No. 12 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, while Harris was the No. 19 pick in the 2011 NBA Draft. They are both solid role-players, with Harris even making an All-Star team earlier in his career. But neither player can be a needle-mover on their own, requiring a star player to maximize their skill set.
Harris averaged 17.2 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 3.1 assists this season, ending a four-year contract with the 76ers that many hailed as one of the worst in the NBA as Harris was not producing at the level of a max player.
Lively averaged 8.8 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks as a rookie, thriving in a specialized role next to guards like Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The center is expected to be named to the All-Rookie Team, proving to be good value but not a franchise-altering piece like Victor Wembanyama, who went No. 1.
The Last Few Draft Classes Have Had Generational Prospects
Fans of the NBA in the 2000s know that Draft classes are usually hit-or-miss. Everyone knew the 2003 Draft was an all-time classic with the players on board, but the same wasn’t felt for weaker classes that followed in 2005 or 2008. People widely panned the 2013 and 2014 Draft classes as well which gave the NBA players such as Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert, and Joel Embiid.
There is value to be found in the Draft if the right eye is looking for it. Teams picking at the top of the Draft have their work cut out for them, as there’s no signature prospect that could alter the trajectory of a franchise.
The 2023 Draft brought an alien-like Victor Wembanyama, and the 2022 Draft brought both Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren into the league, two players with all-time potential.
Even the 2021 Draft was highly rated with Cade Cunningham and Jalen Green at the top, and Anthony Edwards was the top pick in the 2020 Draft with a comparatively low floor but a clearly high all-time ceiling.
The 2019 Draft brought us Zion Williamson and Ja Morant, while the 2018 Draft Class is stacked with all-time talents such as Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Jalen Brunson. Even 2017 brought Jayson Tatum into the NBA, and we can name a signature player from each Draft going back years.
Every Draft class is going to have busts and success stories. Identifying the players who could be successful in the NBA is more challenging in 2024 than it has been in recent seasons with a few key prospects rising above the rest.
The Atlanta Hawks are currently expected to draft Alexandre Sarr at No. 1, though they could move the pick for a win-now player as well. If Sarr is used correctly, he could replicate the sort of impact we’ve seen rookie centers like Lively and Walker Kessler have. But both centers were not in contention for the No. 1 pick and reflect poorly on the 2024 Draft Class.
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