The NBA Cup reaches its most dramatic stage on Black Friday night, with 11 games to decide the final five spots for the knockout round. Three teams have already secured their place, and the margin for error is slim for the rest. Between the head-to-head records inside the group and point differential for wild cards, nearly every match can impact across both conferences.
East Group A
1. Toronto Raptors: 4-0 (+55)
2. Cleveland Cavaliers: 2-1 (+33)
3. Washington Wizards: 1-2 (-44)
4. Atlanta Hawks: 1-2 (-10)
5. Indiana Pacers: 0-3 (-33)
In the East, Group A is wrapped up. Toronto has clinched the group at 4-0 with a plus-55 differential. The Raptors can finish first or second in the conference bracket, depending on how Orlando performs, but either way, Toronto will host one of the quarterfinals.
The real drama involves Cleveland, which sits at 2-1 with a strong plus-33 differential. The Cavaliers can still grab the wild card, but they need other results to go their way. They must beat Atlanta, hope the Bucks beat the Knicks, and hope Orlando beats Detroit.
If those results don’t line up perfectly, things get complicated fast. If Detroit loses but New York wins, Cleveland must beat the Hawks by at least 16. If Detroit and New York both win, the Cavs must overcome a massive 28-point differential gap with Orlando. All of that makes Cleveland a bubble team with a slim path.
East Group B
1. Orlando Magic: 3-0 (+61)
2. Detroit Pistons: 2-1 (+24)
3. Boston Celtics: 2-2 (-17)
4. Brooklyn Net: 1-2 (-17)
5. Philadelphia 76ers: 0-3 (-51)
Group B is more straightforward. The Orlando–Detroit game will decide the group winner. Orlando is 3-0 with a plus-61 differential and can be the conference’s top seed with a win. Detroit is 2-1 and will land as the second or third seed if it pulls the upset. Even if Orlando loses, they can still secure the wild card depending on the margins.
As long as the Magic lose by fewer than 12 and Cleveland doesn’t win by more than 16, Orlando is in a solid position. The only real danger is a narrow Pistons win combined with a Cavs blowout and a massive Bucks win at Madison Square Garden.
East Group C
1. Miami Heat: 3-1 (+49)
2. New York Knicks: 2-1 (+25)
3. Milwaukee Bucks: 2-1 (+25)
4. Chicago Bulls: 1-2 (-42)
5. Charlotte Hornets: 0-3 (-60)
Group C is the strangest setup of the entire tournament. The Bucks (2-1, plus-13) and Knicks (2-1, plus-26) meet in a head-to-head elimination game, but only New York can win the group.
Milwaukee cannot win the group under any scenario, but they can still win the wild card. Miami is done with group play at 3-1, plus-49, but the Heat are at the mercy of Bucks–Knicks and Cavs–Hawks outcomes. If Milwaukee wins, Miami wins the group outright. If Milwaukee loses, New York takes the group, and Miami needs Cleveland to win by 15 or less or lose, plus an Orlando result that avoids shrinking the Magic’s differential advantage.
West Group A
1. Oklahoma City Thunder: 3-0 (+71)
2. Phoenix Suns: 3-0 (+35)
3. Minnesota Timberwolves: 2-2 (+45)
4. Sacramento Kings: 0-3 (-57)
5. Utah Jazz: 0-3 (-94)
The West is even more top-heavy. Group A features a heavyweight duel between Oklahoma City (3-0, plus-71) and Phoenix (3-0, plus-35). The winner takes the group and probably the top seed. The loser has a strong wild-card chance unless Memphis or the Clippers win by a massive margin in their matchup.
Memphis sits at 2-1, plus-15, while the Clippers are at 2-1 but minus-9, meaning both teams trail the Suns and Thunder by enormous differential totals.
West Group B
1. Los Angeles Lakers: 3-0 (+36)
2. Memphis Grizzlies: 2-1 (+15)
3. Los Angeles Clippers: 2-1 (-9)
4. Dallas Mavericks: 1-2 (-18)
5. New Orleans Pelicans: 0-4 (-24)
The Lakers have already clinched Group B at 3-0 with a plus-36 differential. They are likely to finish as the second seed but could move to first or fall to third depending on results. The only wild card threat from this group is again Memphis or the Clippers, who face each other in a game that is unlikely to produce a large enough margin to catch Phoenix or OKC unless everything breaks perfectly.
West Group C
1. Denver Nuggets: 2-1 (+27)
2. San Antonio Spurs: 2-1 (+23)
3. Houston Rockets: 2-2 (+14)
4. Portland Trail Blazers: 2-2 (-31)
5. Golden State Warriors: 1-3 (-32)
Group C is simple. Denver (2-1, plus-26) and San Antonio (2-1, plus-23) meet for the group title. Whoever wins takes the group and likely lands as the third seed unless the Lakers slip. No one in this group is strong enough in the margins to win a wild card.
Once the field is set, the non-qualifying teams will each get one home and one road game in December. Those matchups usually avoid high-stakes situations, so expect a few low-impact pairings across conferences.
Black Friday will decide almost everything, and for half the league, point differential will matter just as much as the scoreboard.
