The Celtics host the Hornets at TD Garden on Wednesday, March 4, at 7:30 PM ET.
The Celtics are 41-20 and second in the East, while the Hornets are 31-31 and ninth. At home, the Celtics are 20-9; on the road, the Hornets are 17-15.
The Celtics last played Monday and beat the Bucks 108-81, and the Hornets come in after a 117-90 win over the Mavericks that pushed them back to .500 and extended their streak to five. This is the first meeting of the season between the two teams.
Jaylen Brown leads the Celtics at 29.0 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 5.0 assists, with Derrick White at 17.1 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 5.8 assists.
For the Hornets, LaMelo Ball is at 19.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 7.4 assists, and Brandon Miller brings 20.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 3.4 assists.
The hook is simple: Jayson Tatum is still out, but there was real buzz Tuesday when ESPN briefly showed him as a game-time decision, a sign his return is getting closer even if it won’t be this one.
Injury Report
Celtics
Jayson Tatum: Out (right Achilles repair)
Hornets
Grant Williams: Out (right knee injury management)
Tidjane Salaun: Out (left knee sprain)
Why The Celtics Have The Advantage
The Celtics’ identity starts with defense, and the baseline number is elite. They allow 107.0 points per game, best in the league (1st), and they sit at a +7.9 scoring margin (2nd). That combination is how they win games without needing perfect offense every night.
The paint is where that defense becomes most concrete. The Celtics allow 40.5 points in the paint per game (1st), and that matters here because the Hornets are 24th in points in the paint at 46.2 per game. If the Celtics keep the Hornets away from clean finishes, the Hornets are forced to live heavier on jump shots for a full 48 minutes.
Ball security is another major edge. The Celtics commit 12.1 turnovers per game, also best in the league (1st). Against a Hornets team that’s good enough defensively to stay attached, the easiest way to avoid giving away momentum is simply getting a shot up almost every trip.
The Celtics also generate a lot of their offense from the three-point line, and the volume is near the top. They take 42.5 threes per game (2nd) and hit 36.5% from three (9th). If the Celtics reach their normal attempt total, it creates steady scoring even when the paint is crowded.
The matchup risk is obvious, though, and it sits on the glass. The Celtics are a strong rebounding team (55.8 rebounds per game, 6th), but the Hornets are even bigger there, and that can be the one lever that breaks a good defensive night.
Why The Hornets Have The Advantage
The Hornets’ strongest argument is controlling possessions through rebounding. They grab 55.9 rebounds per game (3rd) and allow just 47.7 rebounds per game, best in the league (1st). If they can win the glass, it gives them extra chances and keeps the Celtics from turning defense into separation.
They also have enough offense to punish mistakes. The Hornets score 116.1 points per game (11th), and they’ve been playing their best basketball lately, coming in on a five-game win streak. If this becomes a “make a few shots, then grind” game, they’ve shown they can hang in that range.
The three-point attempt profile is another real factor. The Hornets take 42.2 threes per game (4th), so they’re comfortable playing a perimeter-heavy style when the paint is crowded. That matters against a Celtics defense that closes the lane first and dares opponents to finish possessions with jumpers.
Here is the problem the Hornets have to solve: the Celtics are built to eliminate easy points. They allow only 13.1 fastbreak points per game (4th) and almost never beat themselves with turnovers. So even when the Hornets force misses, converting those chances into quick runs is harder than it usually is.
The clean path for the Hornets is to make the game about second chances and physicality. If they don’t create extra possessions, it becomes a long night trying to score efficiently against the league’s best points-allowed defense.
X-Factors
Payton Pritchard sits at 17.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 5.4 assists, and his value in this matchup is organizing offense when the game slows. If Pritchard keeps the Celtics’ half-court possessions clean and gets them into early actions, it helps them avoid the empty trips that let an underdog hang around.
Sam Hauser brings 9.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.5 assists, and the role is simple: punish help. If Hauser hits early threes, the Hornets can’t overload the paint, and the Celtics’ spacing becomes much harder to defend.
Kon Knueppel is giving the Hornets 19.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists, and he’s the swing if the Hornets want enough scoring to threaten a top defense. If his threes and quick decisions force tighter closeouts, the Hornets’ offense gets cleaner looks without needing perfect isolation.
Moussa Diabate is at 8.4 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 1.7 assists, and his minutes matter because this is the Hornets’ best way to turn the game into a rebounding fight. If Diabate wins a few extra possessions on the glass, it keeps the scoreboard close even when the Celtics’ defense is doing its job.
Prediction
The pick is Celtics. The league-best defense and a +7.9 scoring margin are the most stable indicators in this matchup. The Hornets’ explosive shot-making can keep it close, but the Celtics’ ability to remove easy points and avoid mistakes is the most reliable bet at TD Garden.
Prediction: Celtics 110, Hornets 102
