A late-night Western Conference game lands at Mortgage Matchup Center on Tuesday, March 24, at 11 p.m. ET.
The Phoenix Suns are 40-32, seventh in the West, and 23-14 at home. The Denver Nuggets come in at 44-28, fifth in the West, and 23-15 on the road.
The Suns got a needed reset in their last outing, a 120-98 win on Sunday over the Raptors that snapped a five-game skid. The Nuggets also head in on a win after beating the Trail Blazers 128-112 on Sunday, with Nikola Jokic posting another triple-double and Jamal Murray adding 22 points.
This matchup has already tilted hard toward the Nuggets twice. They won the first meeting 133-111 on October 25, then handled the second one 130-112 on November 29. That puts the season series at 2-0 for the Nuggets, and both games followed a similar script: the Nuggets got clean offense early and never really let the Suns dictate the flow.
For the Suns, Devin Booker is putting up 25.5 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 5.9 assists, while Jalen Green has added 20.9 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 1.8 assists.
For the Nuggets, Jokic is at 28.0 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 10.6 assists, and Murray is giving them 25.1 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 7.1 assists.
This is the kind of game where the Suns need their guards to win the shot-creation battle early, because once the Nuggets settle into their passing rhythm, they are brutal to chase.
Injury Report
Suns
Dillon Brooks: Out (left hand fracture)
Amir Coffey: Out (left ankle sprain)
Haywood Highsmith: Out (right knee injury management)
Mark Williams: Out (left foot third metatarsal stress reaction)
Grayson Allen: Questionable (left knee injury management)
Royce O’Neale: Probable (left knee soreness)
Nuggets
Peyton Watson: Out (right hamstring injury management)
Why The Suns Have The Advantage
The Suns’ best case starts with defensive disruption. They average 9.8 steals per game, which is a top-four mark in the league, and they allow only 7.8 opponent steals per game, which is the best number in the NBA. That tells you what kind of game they need. They are not built to beat the Nuggets by matching that offense possession for possession. They need to get hands on the ball, create live-ball chaos, and keep the Nuggets from flowing cleanly into second and third actions.
There is also a real home-floor angle here. The Suns are 23-14 in this building, and Sunday’s win over the Raptors looked like a team that finally exhaled a bit. Booker scored 25, Green added 20, and the group shot 45% from three while controlling the game from the opening quarter. That version is obviously better than the one that kept blowing close games last week. If they can bring that same early force into this matchup, the pressure shifts a little toward the road team.
The other opening is the Nuggets’ defense. For all their offensive firepower, they are sitting at a 117.2 defensive rating this season, which is a weak number for a team with top-tier ambitions. The Suns are only 16th in offensive rating at 115.2, so this is not some elite attack either, but there is enough scoring here to test that side of the floor. Booker, Green, and Collin Gillespie can all get into the paint, and if Allen or O’Neale are available enough to space the floor, the Suns have a path to making the Nuggets defend far more than they want.
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
The biggest edge on the board is still the Nuggets’ offense. They lead the league in offensive rating at 121.6. They are also first in three-point percentage at 39.2%, and they are getting to the line 26.1 times per game, which ranks fourth. That is an absurdly healthy profile. It means they can beat you with passing, shot-making, or foul pressure, depending on what the defense gives them. Few teams have enough answers for that over 48 minutes.
The second piece is Jokic himself. He is leading the league in rebounds among qualified scorers, sitting second in assists overall, and he is still the most flexible offensive hub in the sport. Sunday’s win over the Trail Blazers was another reminder. He finished with 22 points, 14 rebounds, and 14 assists, and the Nuggets never trailed. When he controls tempo like that, the Nuggets do not even need a huge scoring night from him. They just need him to tilt every possession in the right direction.
Then there is the shooting around him. Murray is at 25.1 points and 7.1 assists while hitting 42.2% from three, and the team as a whole is shooting 49.4% from the field. Even when the Suns force the first pass out of Jokic’s hands, the next problem shows up quickly. Murray can punish the scramble, Aaron Gordon can cut into open space, and the role players usually get clean looks because of how much stress the stars create. That is why the first two games in this series got away from the Suns so fast. The Nuggets do not need many mistakes to build a lead.
X-Factors
Collin Gillespie is a huge one for the Suns. He is averaging 13.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 4.8 assists while shooting 42.1% from three. The Suns need his steadiness because the Nuggets are going to send plenty of attention toward Booker. If Gillespie keeps the ball moving, hits open threes, and makes the simple second read, the Suns’ offense looks a lot less top-heavy.
Oso Ighodaro is the other local swing piece. He is posting 6.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.2 assists while shooting 64.4% from the field. This is not about volume scoring. It is about surviving the center minutes, making Jokic work a little, and giving the Suns enough activity around the rim to avoid getting crushed inside. If Ighodaro can hold his own physically, the game gets much easier for the Suns’ perimeter players.
Aaron Gordon feels like one of the biggest pressure points for the Nuggets. He is at 16.6 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 2.5 assists while shooting 40.6% from three. The Suns are already thin in the frontcourt, and Gordon is the kind of forward who can punish that without needing touches drawn up for him. If he is cutting behind the defense and cashing corner threes, the Nuggets’ offense becomes almost impossible to load up against.
Christian Braun is the other Nugget to watch. He is giving them 11.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.9 assists on 51.1% shooting. His value in this matchup is pretty clear. The Suns are going to key in on Jokic and Murray, so Braun’s cutting, transition play, and activity on the glass can steal extra points without forcing anything. Those are the kinds of possessions that quietly swing these games.
Prediction
I’m taking the Nuggets. The Suns absolutely have a path if Booker controls the game early and their defensive activity keeps the Nuggets from settling in. But the bigger sample is just too strong on the other side. The Nuggets have the No. 1 offense, the No. 1 three-point percentage, a top-four free-throw rate, and the best player in the matchup by a wide margin. The Suns are healthier on the perimeter than they were a few days ago and should score enough to keep it competitive for stretches. I just trust the Nuggets far more once the game turns into a half-court execution test.
Prediction: Nuggets 121, Suns 113
