The Mavericks host the Celtics at American Airlines Center on Tuesday, February 3, at 8:00 PM ET.
The Celtics come in at 31-18, tied for the No. 2 seed in the East, while the Mavericks are 19-30 and sitting 11th in the West.
The Mavericks just dropped a 111-107 game to the Rockets, their fourth straight loss, while the Celtics rolled past the Bucks 107-79 and keep stacking wins even without their top guy.
On the floor, the Mavericks are still led by Cooper Flagg (19.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.1 assists), with Naji Marshall putting up 14.6 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.9 assists on efficient shooting.
For the Celtics, Jaylen Brown has been on one at 29.4 points, 6.9 rebounds, 4.8 assists on 48.5% from the field and 36.2% from three, and Derrick White is at 17.2 points, 5.4 assists, 4.6 rebounds.
Injury Report
Mavericks
Anthony Davis: Out (left finger sprain)
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
P.J. Washington: Out (concussion protocol)
Dante Exum: Out (right knee surgery)
Brandon Williams: Questionable (right lower leg contusion)
Moussa Cisse: Questionable (G League – Two-Way)
Miles Kelly: Probable (G League – Two-Way)
Ryan Nembhard: Probable (G League – Two-Way)
Celtics
Jayson Tatum: Out (right Achilles repair)
Amari Williams: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
The one real path is shot-making plus chaos. The Mavericks are at 114.1 points per game and they do move it, 25.2 assists per night, which can matter against a switching defense if you force rotations and keep the ball popping.
They also shoot a solid 47.2% from the field, and if Flagg is getting downhill early, it can pull help and open the floor for Marshall and the secondary guys to feast on closeouts.
But it’s basically a tightrope. They’re coughing it up 15.1 times per game, and against a disciplined, low-mistake opponent, empty possessions turn into an avalanche fast.
Why The Celtics Have The Advantage
This matchup screams Celtics because of the math and the control. They’re scoring 116.1 points per game while allowing just 109.1, and they protect possessions with only 12.0 turnovers a night. That’s how you travel and win even when a star is out.
The big one is shot quality from three. The Celtics are at 36.7% from deep as a team, and their offensive rating sits right at the top of the league. If the Mavericks are giving up 116.6 points per game and sitting at 34.4% from three themselves, that’s a brutal trade-off in a game that’s likely decided by runs.
And without Jayson Tatum, the offense still makes sense because Jaylen Brown has been playing like a No. 1 option all season, and Derrick White, plus the guards, keep the game organized.
X-Factors
Payton Pritchard is the Celtics swing piece for me. If he’s giving them his usual 16.8 points, 5.3 assists, 4.3 rebounds, and turning the game into a track meet whenever he checks in, the Mavericks are going to struggle to survive the non-star minutes. The Mavericks’ depth is already stretched thin, and that’s exactly when Pritchard will try to bury you.
Neemias Queta matters because the Mavericks are missing so much size and structure. He’s at 10.2 points and 8.0 rebounds, and if he owns the glass and gives them vertical spacing, it forces the Mavericks to send help they can’t really afford.
Anfernee Simons is the “this could get ugly” button. He’s averaging 14.2 points in his role, and when his pull-up threes are falling, the Celtics start playing with a margin the opponent can’t climb.
On the Mavericks side, Naji Marshall is the obvious one. If he’s really been that steady at 14.6 points on elite efficiency, he has to be the guy who punishes single coverage and makes the Celtics pay for loading up on Flagg.
Max Christie is another swing. He’s at 13.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and the Mavericks need his shot-making to show up because they’re not winning a half-court game by grinding.
Prediction
The Mavericks are too banged up in the spots that matter. If you’re missing that much creation and rim pressure, you end up asking Flagg to be perfect for 48 minutes, and that’s not realistic against a Celtics team that wins the possession battle and bombs threes.
Prediction: Celtics 118, Mavericks 108
