The Bulls host the Heat at United Center on Thursday, January 29, at 8:00 PM ET.
The Heat come in at 25-23 (8th in the East), while the Bulls are 23-24 (10th in the East).
The Heat just dropped a 133-124 game to the Magic, with Bam Adebayo posting 21 points, 12 rebounds, and seven assists in the loss. The Bulls, meanwhile, are coming off a 113-110 loss to the Pacers.
And yes, this matchup has extra spice because the Heat-Bulls game on January 8 got postponed due to condensation on the court, and this is effectively the rescheduled “make-good” spot on the calendar.
For star power, Tyler Herro is putting up 21.9 points per game, and Adebayo is at 18.0 points and 9.7 rebounds.
For the Bulls, Coby White is at 18.8 points and 4.7 assists, while Nikola Vucevic is giving them 17.0 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 3.8 assists a night.
Injury Report
Heat
Terry Rozier: Out (not with team)
Bulls
Josh Giddey: Out (left hamstring strain)
Kevin Huerter: Out (right low back tightness)
Jalen Smith: Out (concussion)
Zach Collins: Out (right 1st toe sprain)
Noa Essengue: Out (left shoulder surgery)
Why The Heat Have The Advantage
The Bulls’ defense has been leaky all season. They’re allowing 119.8 points per game, and in this matchup that’s a problem because the Heat have quietly turned into a volume scoring team at 119.7 points per game.
The other swing skill is disruption. The Heat are forcing the issue with 9.0 steals per game, and when you stack that against a Bulls group missing key ball-handlers and connectors, it screams “live-ball turnovers lead to easy points.”
And I’m just going to say it: if this turns into a late-game shotmaking contest, I trust the Heat creators more. Herro’s 21.9 points per game plus Adebayo’s steady interior production gives them a cleaner “two-man identity” than the Bulls have had most nights.
Why The Bulls Have The Advantage
The Bulls can absolutely win this if they turn it into a pace-and-threes night. They’re at 117.7 points per game, they shoot 47.7% from the field, and they’re at 36.9% from three, so if they get hot early, the math starts bullying you fast.
They also move the ball. The Bulls are at 29.9 assists per game, and that matters against a Heat defense that’s been giving up 118.0 points per game itself. If the Bulls get into early actions and force rotations, the corner threes will be there.
And the simplest edge: home/road split. The Bulls have been much better at home (15-10) than the Heat have been on the road (10-15). That’s not analysis, that’s just reality.
X-Factors
Norman Powell is the Heat swing piece for me, because 23.0 points per game from a non-primary star is basically a cheat code when the game gets chaotic. If he’s truly healthy enough to press the gas, the Bulls do not have the perimeter depth right now to cover Herro, Powell, and the secondary driving lanes without giving up clean looks.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. is the “glue” guy that can decide a game like this. He’s at 15.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 4.7 assists, and the assists number matters because the Bulls will try to load up on Herro. If Jaquez is making quick reads and punishing closeouts, the Heat offense stops being streaky and starts being inevitable.
Nikola Jovic is the wild card. His line (8.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists) doesn’t scream takeover, but his spacing and decision-making can pull bigs away from the rim. If he hits a couple early threes or makes two straight extra passes, the Bulls’ help defense starts arriving a step late.
For the Bulls, Matas Buzelis is the pressure point. He’s at 14.9 points and 5.3 rebounds, and when he’s confident, the Bulls have a second forward who can score without plays being drawn up. If he wins his matchup minutes, it changes how aggressively the Heat can help off the wing.
Ayo Dosunmu is another one. He’s putting up 14.6 points and 3.4 assists on strong efficiency, and with injuries piling up, his ability to create something out of nothing is huge. If he’s getting paint touches, the Bulls’ shooters get cleaner air.
Prediction
I’m leaning Heat, even on the road. The Bulls’ injury situation takes away too many of the “steady” minutes, and their defense has basically been begging opponents to win shootouts all year. If the Heat play with any discipline at all, they’ll get enough stops and enough free points off mistakes to steal it.
Prediction: Heat 121, Bulls 116
