The Suns host the Mavericks at Mortgage Matchup Center on Wednesday at 10 p.m. ET.
The Suns are 43-36 and sit seventh in the West, while the Mavericks are 25-54 and 13th. The Suns are 24-16 at home, the Mavericks are 10-28 on the road, and the recent trend gives this game real urgency only on one side.
The Suns are coming off a 119-105 loss to the Rockets that officially pushed them into the Play-In range, while the Mavericks lost 116-103 to the Clippers and have now dropped nine of their last 11. The Suns also lead the season series 2-0, with wins of 123-114 and 120-111.
Devin Booker remains the main offensive engine for the Suns, averaging 25.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 6.0 assists, and Jalen Green has given them 18.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.9 assists.
On the other side, Cooper Flagg is closing his rookie year like a star, averaging 21.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.5 assists, while Naji Marshall has added 15.2 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 3.3 assists.
The hook here is simple. The Suns are the better team, but they have not looked trustworthy enough to treat any game like a formality.
They just blew a 24-0 start against the Rockets and got pounded 55-34 on the glass. That is why this matchup is interesting. The Mavericks do not have the record, the depth or the health edge, but they still have enough pace and enough Flagg shot creation to make this messy if the Suns drift again.
Injury Report
Suns
Mark Williams: Out (left foot injury management)
Haywood Highsmith: Out (right knee injury management)
Brandon Williams: Doubtful (illness)
Grayson Allen: Questionable (right quadriceps contusion)
Mavericks
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Daniel Gafford: Doubtful (right shoulder impingement)
P.J. Washington: Doubtful (left elbow sprain)
Naji Marshall: Doubtful (left hip contusion)
Klay Thompson: Doubtful (rest)
Caleb Martin: Doubtful (right plantar fascia strain)
Moussa Cisse: Probable (G League – Two-Way)
Cooper Flagg: Probable (left wrist sprain)
John Poulakidas: Probable (G League – Two-Way)
Tyler Smith: Probable (G League – Two-Way)
Why The Suns Have The Advantage
Start with the broad team profile. The Suns are not elite offensively, but they are far more balanced than the Mavericks. They own a 115.5 offensive rating, which ranks 17th in the league, and a 113.0 defensive rating, which ranks 10th. The Mavericks are much weaker on both sides of that equation, sitting at a 110.7 offensive rating, which ranks 29th, and a 116.2 defensive rating, which ranks 19th. That gap matters because this is not a matchup between two erratic teams trying to survive on hot shooting. One side still has a top-10 defense. The other has lived near the bottom of the league offensively for most of the season.
The second edge is the quality of shot creation at the top. Booker is still one of the best half-court stabilizers in the conference, and the Suns need that badly because their structure has slipped in recent weeks. Even then, this is a good opponent for him. The Mavericks are allowing 119.4 points per game, and the Suns already scored 123 and 120 in the first two meetings. The Mavericks also enter this game on the second night of a back-to-back after shooting just 35.0% from the field and 18.2% from three against the Clippers. That is the kind of defensive and schedule profile Booker usually punishes.
There is also a possession game angle that favors the Suns more than people might think. The Suns rank seventh in offensive rebound percentage at 33.0, which gives them a useful answer when the half-court offense gets sticky. That matters because the Suns are only 18th in assists per game at 24.9, so they are not some flowing, machine-like offense right now. They need extra possessions. Against the Mavericks, they should get them. The Mavericks have lost Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively II for the season, and several rotation pieces are sitting in the doubtful category. That strips away rim resistance, secondary ball-handling and lineup stability all at once.
The last piece is defensive pressure. The Suns still rank fourth in steals per game, and the Mavericks bring too many weak offensive indicators to ignore. The Mavericks rank 23rd in assists per game, 29th in three-point percentage at 34.1%, and 29th in offensive rating. That means their fast pace can look dangerous, but it often turns into empty speed. Against a Suns team that still has live defenders on the wing and a much stronger scoring anchor in Booker, I think that becomes a problem over 48 minutes.
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
The Mavericks have one real path here, and it starts with pace and volatility. The Mavericks rank fourth in pace at 102.7 possessions per game, and that matters against a Suns team that has looked emotionally shaky and structurally messy when games speed up. They just let a 24-0 start disappear against the Rockets and got outscored 98-68 the rest of the way. That was not just one bad quarter. That was a reminder that the Suns can lose control of a game fast, especially when the opponent keeps forcing extra actions and refuses to play at their preferred tempo.
The other obvious reason to take them seriously is Flagg. He has averaged 21.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.5 assists for the season, but his recent run is what changes the tone of this matchup. He dropped 51 against the Magic, then followed it with 45 against the Lakers, and he had 25 more against the Clippers on Tuesday. He already has 21 games of 25 or more points. That is not empty late-season stat padding. That is a teenager creating real offense on a nightly basis, even with the defense loaded toward him because so many other Mavericks scorers are hurt or limited.
Rebounding is another place where they can make this uncomfortable. The Mavericks rank 10th in rebounds per game at 44.7, and the subs just got bullied on the glass by the Rockets. That is not a minor detail. It is one of the Suns’ biggest current problems. If the Mavericks can turn this into a game where Bagley, Gafford, if available, and their bigger wings keep extending possessions, the Suns will feel pressure quickly.
And there is one more thing. The Suns have not been clean late in games. They are the league’s worst fourth-quarter scoring team in April at 25.9 points per game, with the assist rate falling off badly and the offense getting too static. That opens the door for an underdog, even if the underdog is clearly less talented. If this is close halfway through the fourth, the Mavericks at least have a chance because Flagg can generate hard shots, and the Suns have made too many endings feel tense.
X-Factors
Collin Gillespie is the first swing piece for the Suns. He is averaging 12.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 4.7 assists while shooting 40.6% from three, and he just broke the franchise single-season record for made threes. That matters in this matchup because the Mavericks will spend most of their attention on Booker. If Gillespie keeps punishing those help decisions, the floor opens up, and the Mavericks lose the ability to crowd the elbows and nail area against Booker drives.
Royce O’Neale is the other one. He is at 9.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.7 assists while hitting 40.6% from three. He matters because the Mavericks still have enough size on the wing to test the Suns’ balance, especially if Brooks is forced into heavy on-ball work. O’Neale is the type of connector who can swing a game without needing volume. If he rebounds his position, makes the simple pass, and knocks down open threes, the Suns will look far more complete. If he disappears, the offense becomes too star-dependent again.
For the Mavericks, Marvin Bagley III stands out. He is averaging 10.4 points and 6.2 rebounds while shooting 61.9% from the field. Bagley is not the headline name, but this matchup gives him a real opening because this Suns team has been vulnerable inside and on the glass. If he runs hard, finishes around the rim, and steals a few extra possessions, he gives the Mavericks something they badly need, which is easy offense that does not require Flagg to manufacture everything from scratch.
Max Christie is the other one. He is averaging 12.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.0 assists, and his job here is simple but important. The Mavericks need him to be a real secondary spacer and a competent wing defender against the Suns’ guard-heavy actions. The Mavericks shot 6-for-33 from three against the Clippers. That cannot happen again if they want a shot. Christie is one of the few perimeter players on the roster who can help fix that math without hijacking possessions.
Prediction
I think the Suns win, and I think they should. The better defense is on their side, the healthier top-end scoring is on their side, and the matchup history is on their side. The Suns are 2-0 in the season series, rank 10th in defensive rating, and face a Mavericks team that ranks 29th in offensive rating and 29th in three-point percentage. The Mavericks absolutely have one scary path through pace, rebounding, and another Flagg eruption, and I do not trust the Suns enough to call this a blowout spot. But this still looks like a game where the better team, at home, against a short-handed opponent on a back-to-back, should get the job done.
Prediction: Suns 118, Mavericks 109
