The Golden State Warriors host the Dallas Mavericks at Chase Center on December 25, and it’s the exact kind of Christmas game that can swing a season’s tone. The Warriors are 15-15 and sitting ninth in the West, while the Mavericks are 12-19 and 11th.
This is the first meeting of the regular-season series, so nobody has the “we already solved you” card yet. It’s a clean slate, with two more matchups coming later in the season.
On the star side, Stephen Curry is still doing Stephen Curry things at 28.7 points per game on 47.3% from the field, and Jimmy Butler is adding 19.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.7 assists on 52.3% shooting.
For the Mavericks, Anthony Davis has delivered 21.7 points and 11.4 rebounds per game on 52.5% from the field, while Cooper Flagg has been the nightly jolt at 19.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.8 assists on 48.7% shooting.
Injury Report
Warriors
Seth Curry: Out (left glute, injury management)
LJ Cryer: Out (left low back strain)
Al Horford: Probable (right sciatic nerve irritation)
Mavericks
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Dante Exum: Out (right knee surgery)
Miles Kelly: Doubtful (G League, two-way)
P.J. Washington: Questionable (right midfoot soreness)
Moussa Cisse: Questionable (G League, two-way)
Klay Thompson: Probable (left knee soreness)
Max Christie: Probable (illness)
Dwight Powell: Probable (illness)
Brandon Williams: Probable (right ankle sprain)
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
Start with the setting. The Warriors have been a different team at Chase Center, going 9-4 at home, and that matters a ton against a road group that’s struggled to stack wins away from home.
Then it’s the identity. The Warriors don’t play perfect, but they generate chances. They’re at 27.8 assists per game and 9.7 steals per game, which is basically their whole vibe, movement offense, active hands, and constant pressure on your decision-making.
They also come in hot. The Warriors have won two straight, including a 120-97 win in their most recent game against the Magic, and that kind of momentum matters when you’re trying to keep a .500 season from sliding into “panic shopping” territory.
The big swing is how they attack the Mavericks’ thin middle. With Dereck Lively out and the Mavericks constantly juggling their frontcourt rotation, the Warriors can spam actions that pull bigs into space and force help rotations. That’s where the extra passing and the steals turn into easy runouts, and that’s where the Warriors can create a gap without needing a nuclear shooting night.
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
The Mavericks’ advantage is the chaos factor, and lately it’s been real. They’re 6-4 in their last 10, and they just stole a wild, high-end win over the Nuggets with Flagg and Davis taking over late. That kind of game gives a team belief fast, because you stop feeling “short-handed” and start feeling dangerous.
They also have a pretty clear stylistic matchup: make it a scoring game. The Mavericks are allowing 117.4 points per game, so defense hasn’t been their calling card, but it also means they’re used to living in track meets. If this turns into a possessions-and-shotmaking night, the Mavericks have the bodies to trade buckets, especially if Thompson plays and gives them another spacing threat.
And even if the guards are limited, the Mavericks can still win with size and free throws if Davis controls the paint. The Warriors are a smart team defensively, but they’re not built to casually handle elite power and rim pressure for 48 minutes if the whistles start piling up.
Warriors vs. Mavericks Prediction
I’m taking the Warriors. The home edge feels real here, and the ball pressure plus the passing should create enough easy points to separate in the second half, even if the Mavericks hang around with shot-making early.
Prediction: Warriors 121, Mavericks 113
