The Minnesota Timberwolves host the Denver Nuggets for Game 6 on Thursday at 9:30 PM ET at the Target Center, with the Timberwolves hoping to end the series at home with a 3-2 lead in this 2026 NBA Playoffs first-round matchup.
The Timberwolves were up 3-1 in the series, but their Game 4 win saw both Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo suffer serious injuries, which left the Wolves shorthanded in their Game 5 loss, led by Julius Randle’s 27 points, nine rebounds, and six assists. Ayo Dosunmu had another strong offensive game with 18 points, three rebounds, and four assists. Bench players Bones Hyland and Terrence Shannon Jr. both contributed 15 points apiece as well.
Nikola Jokic overcame chatter about him struggling in this series by leading the Nuggets in Game 5 with 27 points, 12 rebounds, and 16 assists. Jamal Murray had 24 points, four rebounds, seven assists, and four steals in a strong game, while Spencer Jones had an explosive 20 points, three steals, and three blocks as an emergency starter in Aaron Gordon’s absence.
Both teams are carrying significant injuries, but the Timberwolves have a lot more to overcome with the absence of their leading scorer. If they can’t finish this series off at home in Game 6, they might become the third team Jokic and Murray have overcome a 3-1 Playoff series deficit against.
Injury Report
Timberwolves
Anthony Edwards: Out (knee)
Donte DiVincenzo: Out (Achilles)
Nuggets
Aaron Gordon: Questionable (calf)
Peyton Watson: Out (hamstring)
Why The Timberwolves Have The Advantage
The absence of Edwards is brought up as one of the biggest reasons that the Timberwolves won’t be able to hold onto this series lead. However, Edwards has been laboring since Game 1, as the team has found ways to stay productive in his absence since his late-season knee injuries. While it helps to have Edwards, the Timberwolves are a much better defensive team when Edwards is absent, holding a 109.5 defensive rating without him compared to 115.0 with him.
If the Timberwolves’ defense, led by Rudy Gobert, can find ways to make the Nuggets shoot poorly on the road, they will be in the driver’s seat. The Nuggets lost Games 3 and 4 in Minnesota, shooting 36.6% from three in Game 3 and 25.0% from three in Game 4. Jokic himself had really rough shooting nights both times, which highlights that the Timberwolves have the pieces they need to stop the Nuggets even while missing two core rotational players.
The Timberwolves couldn’t find ways to contain the Nuggets’ scorers, especially with outlier scoring nights from the likes of Spencer Jones. Jones was held to 0 points in Games 2 and 4 this series, so if the Wolves can limit Murray and Jokic effectively while also cutting off rotational players, the Nuggets will have to just find ways to score.
If the Timberwolves are without key offensive pieces like Edwards and DiVincenzo, the Nuggets are without two of their best defenders in Peyton Watson and Aaron Gordon. While Gordon’s status for Game 5 is unclear, the Timberwolves can easily break down the Nuggets’ defense, which is very weak without Gordon and Watson in the rotation. The Nuggets are also yet to win a game in Minnesota this series, so this is as strong as home-court advantage can get.
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
The Nuggets will be the on-paper favorites for many heading into Game 6 because of the presence of Jokic. Jokic is averaging 25.4 points, 14.0 rebounds, and 9.4 assists this series. His numbers look sensational for what many have called the worst Playoff series for the Serbian center since his emergence as an MVP-caliber player in 2020. If Jokic’s performances so far have been bad, the Timberwolves can’t even afford to let him have a below-average game, given how impactful he can be.
Jokic looked comfortable in Game 5, being able to dictate the flow of the offense while leading the Nuggets to an efficient 47-83 (56.6 FG%) shooting from the field and 12-29 (37.9 3P%) shooting from three. Given this was the best offense in the NBA this season, it shouldn’t be hard for them to replicate this, if not improve on it.
The Nuggets can overburden key pieces like Dosunmu and Randle, as both players have a significant two-way workload to carry without DiVincenzo and Edwards. They were effective but not good enough in Game 5, with the Nuggets probably looking to load up even more on these two heading into Game 6. Stopping swing production from unheralded bench players like former Nuggets guard Bones Hyland will be a more significant challenge, but one the Nuggets are well-equipped to deal with.
With poor offensive production from the likes of Cameron Johnson and Christian Braun plaguing the Nuggets this series, a breakout game for either one might be more than enough to carry them over the line and force a Game 7 back home in Denver.
X-Factors
The Timberwolves need Naz Reid to be a high-volume scorer now more than ever. While the frontcourt is still crowded with Randle and Gobert, Reid’s production in his minutes has become a lot more impactful since he’s primarily impacting the game as a scorer. He’s averaged 10.0 points and 7.0 rebounds so far this series, with the Wolves hoping he can have a breakout game by attacking the Nuggets’ defensive weaknesses with Edwards and DiVincenzo absent.
Bones Hyland has been getting a lot more opportunity with the injury crisis in Minnesota, averaging 8.4 points and 2.0 assists through five games this series. Hyland has a bone to pick with the Nuggets as well, with the team trading him on bad terms during their title-winning 2022-23 season. Denver never sent Hyland a ring despite him spending half the season with them, so eliminating them this season would be the perfect way for Hyland to get his revenge.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is averaging 10.4 points and 3.2 rebounds in the Playoffs so far, with the Nuggets needing him to pick up the scoring behind Jokic and Murray. While he doesn’t provide much outside of bench scoring, Hardaway can be one of the most effective scorers in the NBA when he’s hot. If he can go off for 20+ points, securing this win would be considerably easier for Denver.
If Hardaway’s offense continues to struggle, the Nuggets will hope their major offseason addition, Cam Johnson, finally shows up. Johnson is averaging 11.6 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 2.2 assists in the Playoffs as he’s looked uncomfortable in the face of the Timberwolves’ aggressive perimeter defense. Johnson was expected to fill a major gap after being traded for consistent scorer Michael Porter Jr. Johnson hasn’t been shining on either end so far this series, so ending that streak in Game 6 will be crucial.
Prediction
The two best words in basketball are Game 7, and this series will be heading to one. The Nuggets have enough firepower offensively to overwhelm a shorthanded Timberwolves roster, as this grueling series will start weighing on them. The potential return of Aaron Gordon should give the Nuggets a huge boost, but even if he remains out, we’ve seen Spencer Jones have a major impact while filling in. They have more than enough to extend this series to seven games with a Game 6 win on the road.
Prediction: Nuggets 119, Timberwolves 110
