The Pistons host the Pelicans at Little Caesars Arena on Thursday, March 26, at 7:00 p.m. ET.
The Pistons enter at 52-20 and sit atop the East, while the Pelicans are 25-48 and 11th in the West. That gap shows up in the splits too, with the Pistons at 28-9 at home and the Pelicans at 9-26 on the road.
The Pistons lost 130-129 in overtime to the Hawks on Tuesday, and the Pelicans dropped a 121-116 game to the Knicks later that night.
The Pistons won the first meeting 112-104 on January 21, so they lead the season series 1-0. They have also won three straight against the Pelicans overall, so this has quietly become a favorable matchup for them.
Without Cade Cunningham once more, Jalen Duren has put up 19.3 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 1.7 assists while shooting 64.0% from the field. Tobias Harris has added 13.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.4 assists.
For the Pelicans, Trey Murphy III has produced 21.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 3.8 assists, while Zion Williamson has posted 21.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.3 assists.
This is a game with very different pressure on each side. The Pistons are protecting the top seed in the East, while the Pelicans are trying to stop a three-game road slide and avoid another close loss to a playoff team.
Injury Report
Pistons
Cade Cunningham: Out (left lung pneumothorax)
Caris LeVert: Out (right knee soreness)
Wendell Moore Jr.: Out (G League two-way)
Isaiah Stewart: Out (left calf strain)
Tobias Harris: Questionable (left hip soreness)
Jalen Duren: Probable (right knee injury management)
Javonte Green: Probable (left ankle sprain)
Duncan Robinson: Probable (right wrist injury management)
Marcus Sasser: Probable (right hip strain)
Ausar Thompson: Probable (right ankle injury management)
Pelicans
Trey Alexander: Out (G League two-way)
Hunter Dickinson: Out (G League two-way)
Josh Oduro: Out (G League two-way)
Bryce McGowens: Out (right small toe fracture)
Trey Murphy III: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Dejounte Murray: Available (right Achilles injury management)
Why The Pistons Have The Advantage
The Pistons have the best defensive foundation in this matchup by a wide margin. They are second in defensive efficiency at 1.05 points allowed per possession, second in defensive rating at 109.9, third in opponent field goal percentage at 44.4%, and second in opponent effective field goal percentage at 51.9%. The Pelicans are only 20th in offensive efficiency and 17th in points per game, so this is not a spot where they can count on easy offense against one of the league’s most stable defenses.
The chaos stats push it further toward the Pistons. They lead the league in steals at 10.5 per game and blocks at 6.3 per game, and they rank fourth in opponent two-point percentage at 51.6%. The Pelicans are second in points in the paint, but they are also only 26th in three-point makes and 23rd in three-point percentage, so if the Pistons can shrink the floor and make this more of a jump-shooting game, the matchup changes fast.
The Pistons also win this matchup in the areas that usually decide games without needing elite shotmaking. They are first in points in the paint at 58.0 per game, third in free throw attempts at 26.4, eighth in rebounds at 45.7, and 11th in offensive efficiency. The Pelicans are 24th in opponent points per game at 119.2 and 23rd in defensive efficiency. That is a bad combination against a team that wants to pressure the rim and win the physical part of the game.
The Pistons own the second-best net rating in the league at 7.7, and over their last 10 games, that number has jumped to 10.6. The Pelicans come in with a season net rating of -3.7. Even without Cunningham, that is still a strong gap in team quality and environment.
Why The Pelicans Have The Advantage
The Pelicans do have one very real path here, and it starts in the paint. They rank second in points in the paint at 57.3 per game, ninth in free throw attempts at 25.4, and 16th in field goal percentage at 46.7%. With Cade and Isaiah Stewart out, the Pistons lose their lead creator and one of their main interior defenders. If the Pelicans can keep this game at the rim instead of on the perimeter, they can make the matchup much more uncomfortable than the records suggest.
They also defend the arc well enough to bother this version of the Pistons. The Pelicans are tied for second in opponent three-point percentage at 34.8% and rank 11th in blocks at 5.1 per game. That matters because the Pistons are only 24th in three-point percentage, 29th in three-point makes, and 28th in three-point attempts. If the Pelicans wall off the paint and force the Pistons into more half-court jump shooting without Cade, the offensive rhythm can flatten out.
Ball security is another place where the Pelicans have a chance to stay alive. They rank 10th in turnover percentage at 12.1%, 11th in turnovers per game at 14.1, and ninth in steals at 8.8 per game. The Pistons are only 20th in turnovers per game at 14.9, and that matters more when Cunningham is not there to organize late-clock possessions.
The other reason not to dismiss them is simple. They have played competitive games lately against good teams, losing 111-106 to the Cavaliers and 121-116 to the Knicks. That does not erase a 25-48 record, but it does show they still have enough downhill offense and enough individual shot creation to make a better team work for 48 minutes.
X-Factors
Ausar Thompson is a major swing piece for the Pistons. He has put up 10.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.0 assists, along with 2.0 steals and 0.9 blocks per game. With Cunningham out, Thompson’s value gets even bigger because he can defend multiple spots, force turnovers, and create transition offense without needing a set play. If he turns this into an activity game, the Pistons usually look much more in control.
Daniss Jenkins matters because the ball is going to find him a lot. He has put up 8.5 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 3.4 assists this season, and he just came off a 19-point, 10-assist game against the Hawks. The Pistons do not need him to dominate the ball all night, but they do need him to keep the offense on time and avoid the empty possessions that let the Pelicans run. If Jenkins is solid, the Pistons can survive the missing creation.
Jordan Poole is a real x-factor for the Pelicans because he gives them a different kind of scorer. He has produced 13.3 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists, but the main thing is his shot profile. He can hit pull-up threes, attack a bent defense, and change a quarter quickly if the second unit loses structure. If Poole gets hot, the Pelicans suddenly have enough perimeter scoring to stress a defense that would rather load up on Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III.
Yves Missi is the other one to watch. He has posted 5.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.5 blocks per game. His job in this matchup is simple but important. He has to run the floor, protect the rim, and make Jalen Duren work on the glass. If Missi gives the Pelicans a real interior presence behind the stars, they have a better chance to keep the game in the kind of physical range they want.
Prediction
The Pistons should win this game. The strongest indicators all point in the same direction: second in defensive efficiency, first in steals, first in blocks, first in points in the paint, and 28-9 at home. The Pelicans have enough downhill scoring to make this competitive for stretches, especially if Zion Williamson gets to the line and Trey Murphy III plays, but the Pistons have the better defense, the cleaner team profile, and the clearer matchup edge over 48 minutes.
Prediction: Pistons 118, Pelicans 108
