The Denver Nuggets host the Dallas Mavericks at Ball Arena on Wednesday, March 25, at 10:00 p.m. ET.
The Nuggets are 45-28 and fourth in the West, while the Mavericks are 23-49 and 13th. The Nuggets are 21-13 at home, the Mavericks are 9-25 on the road.
The Nuggets are finishing a back-to-back series after a 125-123 win over the Suns last night, and the Mavericks are coming off a 137-131 overtime loss to the Warriors on Monday.
The season series has been tighter than the standings say. The Mavericks lead it 2-1 after wins on December 1 and December 23, while the Nuggets took the last meeting on January 14.
Nikola Jokic has put up 27.9 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 10.7 assists while shooting 57.3% from the field and 38.3% from three. Jamal Murray has added 25.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 7.1 assists.
For the Mavericks, Cooper Flagg has produced 20.3 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.6 assists, while Daniel Gafford has given them 14.3 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks.
This game matters more for the Nuggets. They are trying to protect a top-four spot, while the Mavericks are playing through injuries and trying to finish a difficult season without losing competitive edge.
Injury Report
Nuggets
Aaron Gordon: Questionable (right hamstring injury management)
Peyton Watson: Questionable (right hamstring injury management)
Mavericks
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Caleb Martin: Out (right plantar fascia strain)
Moussa Cisse: Doubtful (G League two-way)
Brandon Williams: Questionable (concussion protocol)
Daniel Gafford: Questionable (right shoulder sprain)
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
The offense is the biggest separator, and this time the numbers actually back it up in a real way. The Nuggets are first in offensive efficiency, first in effective field goal percentage at 57.4%, first in assist-to-turnover ratio at 2.20, seventh in assists at 28.5 per game, and third in fewest turnovers at 13.0 per game. That is an elite half-court profile, and it matters in this matchup because the Mavericks do not force many mistakes once the first action gets beat. If the Nuggets are getting a shot on most trips and turning rotations into open looks, this can tilt fast.
The style of the game also leans their way. The Nuggets are only 20th in possessions per game at 102.6, which tells you they do not need pace to score. They are comfortable grinding a game into half-court reads, post touches, and second-side passing. The Mavericks are third in pace, so one of the clearest swing points is whether this game gets played on Nuggets terms or Mavericks terms. If the Nuggets slow it down even a little, the shot-quality gap becomes much more important.
There is enough defensive support here, too. The Nuggets are fifth in opponent three-point percentage at 34.9% and 13th in opponent effective field goal percentage at 54.2%. That is not an elite defense overall, but it is good enough in the exact areas that matter against this version of the Mavericks. They are only 24th in effective field goal percentage at 53.1%, 25th in assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.69, and 26th in offensive efficiency. So if the Nuggets stay connected to the arc and make the Mavericks finish possessions with tougher half-court shots, the math starts to work heavily in their favor.
The broader team profile says the same thing. The Nuggets are first in offensive rating league-wide, while the Mavericks are down at 26th in offensive efficiency and only 19th in defensive efficiency. Even with the Mavericks leading the season series 2-1, the bigger sample still says the Nuggets have the cleaner foundation on both ends for this specific spot, especially at home and in a game where their seeding still matters.
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
The Mavericks’ best argument starts with pace and game shape. They are third in possessions per game, and they already have a 2-1 edge in the season series. In both wins, they got to 131 points. That is not random. Their path in this matchup is to speed the game up, get the Nuggets defending earlier in the clock, and keep the game out of a clean half-court script. When this matchup gets loose, the Nuggets have not looked nearly as comfortable defensively.
There is also a real paint-scoring angle here. The Mavericks are fourth in points from two-pointers at 62.4 per game, which matters because the Nuggets are only 22nd in defensive efficiency and 21st in defensive rating. That is the pressure point. If the Mavericks can get downhill, finish inside, and force the Nuggets to rotate more than they want, they can keep the game close without needing some huge three-point night.
The other clear edge is three-point defense. The Mavericks are second in opponent three-point percentage at 34.6% and 14th in opponent effective field goal percentage at 54.3%. So while their defense has holes, they do have one important strength for this matchup: they are usually pretty good at taking away easy threes. Against a Nuggets team that is first in effective field goal percentage and one of the most efficient passing teams in the league, that matters because it can force more possessions to end with contested twos instead of catch-and-shoot threes.
The case for the Mavericks is narrower, but it is real. They are not the better overall team, and their 26th-ranked offense, 24th-ranked effective field goal percentage, and 25th-ranked assist-to-turnover ratio make that clear. But if they win the pace battle, protect the arc, and turn this into another high-possession game like the first two wins in the series, they have already shown they can make the Nuggets uncomfortable.
X-Factors
Christian Braun is a real swing piece for the Nuggets because his role fits this matchup cleanly. He is at 11.8 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.9 assists while shooting 51.4% from the field. The Mavericks are going to spend most of the night reacting to Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, so Braun’s cutting, transition finishing, and straight-line drives matter a lot. If he turns those openings into efficient offense, the Nuggets get the kind of easy scoring that breaks a game open.
Peyton Watson belongs here, too, as his January showing was special. He has put up 14.9 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.0 assists, along with 1.0 steals and 1.2 blocks, while shooting 49.5% from the field and 41.1% from three. That makes him more than just an energy wing. He gives the Nuggets a real two-way piece who can help on the glass, protect the rim from the weak side, and punish help if the Mavericks overload toward the stars. If Watson is active on both ends, the Nuggets look deeper and much more stable.
Naji Marshall is one of the clearest X-factors for the Mavericks because he gives them another attacker who does not need a play called for him. He is at 15.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 3.3 assists while shooting 51.9% from the field. That matters in this matchup because the Nuggets can get stretched when secondary creators attack the paint after the first action. If Marshall keeps getting downhill and making simple reads, the Mavericks have a much better chance to keep their offense alive deep into possessions.
Max Christie is the other one to watch because he is the cleanest spacing piece among the Mavericks’ role players. He has put up 12.6 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.0 assists while shooting 45.3% from the field and 40.9% from three. The Nuggets will naturally collapse toward the paint and load up on the ball, so Christie’s catch-and-shoot value matters a lot here. If he makes open threes and attacks closeouts under control, the Mavericks can keep the floor balanced. If he goes cold, the offense gets much easier to crowd.
Prediction
The Nuggets are still the pick. The Mavericks have earned respect in this series, but the strongest indicators are still on the Nuggets’ side: first in offensive rating, a 21-13 home record, and the best player in the matchup controlling every possession. The Mavericks have enough scoring to make this interesting for a while, especially with Flagg, but the Nuggets should have too much structure and too much shot quality over 48 minutes.
Prediction: Nuggets 123, Mavericks 114
