The Los Angeles Clippers host the Golden State Warriors at Intuit Dome on Monday, January 5 (10:00 PM ET), and it’s a classic “one team needs the win, the other team needs to prove it travels” kind of night.
The Warriors come in 19-17 and sitting 8th in the West, while the Clippers are 12-22 and down at 12th.
Star-wise, it starts with Kawhi Leonard putting up 28.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game, with James Harden at 25.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 8.0 assists.
On the other side, Stephen Curry is still doing Stephen Curry things at 28.8 points per game, and Jimmy Butler has been a real second engine at 19.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.0 assists while shooting 51.4% from the field.
Injury Report
Warriors
Seth Curry: Out (left sciatic nerve irritation)
Clippers
Bradley Beal: Out (left hip fracture)
Bogdan Bogdanovic: Out (left hamstring injury management)
Derrick Jones Jr.: Out (right knee sprain)
Chris Paul: Out (not with team)
Yanic Konan Niederhauser: Questionable (illness)
Why The Clippers Have The Advantage
The Clippers’ path is pretty straightforward: slow the game down, win the physical possessions, and make the Warriors score in the half-court without living at the three-point line.
Even with the record being ugly, the Clippers can still play “real basketball” on offense when the two stars control it. They’re averaging 112.4 points per game, shooting 47.3% from the field, and hitting 36.5% from three, so the shot-making is there when the looks are clean.
Where they actually have a chance to flip this matchup is the defensive glass and the paint. It’s not pretty overall, but if Ivica Zubac owns the interior, the Clippers can force the Warriors into a ton of one-shot possessions and keep Curry from turning one stop into a back-breaking run. Zubac is at 15.2 points and 11.0 rebounds per game, and he’s finishing at 60.4% from the field, which is basically “automatic” if the Warriors don’t keep him off his spots.
The problem is they’ve allowed 114.56 points per game this season, so they can’t afford a stretch where the Warriors start raining threes and the Clippers answer with long twos.
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
This is the part that feels unfair: the Warriors don’t need the game to be clean to win it. They can win it messy, fast, chaotic, or purely on shot-making.
They’re scoring 115.2 points per game, they’re moving the ball at 28.0 assists per game, and they create extra possessions with 9.5 steals per game. That’s the exact combo that crushes a team that already has a limited margin because of injuries.
And even though the Warriors don’t shoot a crazy team percentage, the volume is the weapon. They take 43.9 threes per game, and when Curry gets rolling, it doesn’t matter if the defense “played it right” for 18 seconds. One slip, one bad tag, one late switch, and it’s three points.
The Warriors also defend just well enough to keep themselves in control. They’re allowing 113.94 opponent points per game, and with Butler adding another steady creator next to Curry, the Warriors don’t have to rely on only one guy bailing them out late.
X-Factors
Ivica Zubac feels massive here because he can turn this into a paint game instead of a track meet. He’s averaging 15.2 points and 11.0 rebounds, and he’s finishing at 60.4% from the field. If he punishes switches, kills second chances, and makes the Warriors pay for going smaller, the Clippers can stay attached without needing a perfect shooting night.
Kris Dunn is the other sneaky swing piece because he’s the kind of guard who can wreck a rhythm game with pressure. He’s at 8.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 3.0 assists, and his impact is simple: he has to make Curry work for everything and turn a couple of those clean Warrior possessions into ugly ones.
John Collins matters too because the Clippers need a third scorer who can cash in when the Warriors load up on Kawhi and Harden. Collins is putting up 12.6 points and 4.8 rebounds, and if he hits open looks and finishes in space, the Clippers can actually keep the Warriors from selling out on the stars.
For the Warriors, Draymond Green is still the control tower. He’s averaging 8.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 5.1 assists, and if he dictates tempo and keeps the ball moving, the Warriors get those runs where the other team blinks and it’s suddenly a 12-2 burst.
Brandin Podziemski is the “third guy” who can swing the non-Curry minutes. He’s at 12.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 3.4 assists, and if he keeps the offense organized while pushing pace, the Warriors can win the bench stretches that usually decide these games.
Jonathan Kuminga is the pressure athlete. He’s averaging 11.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 2.6 assists, and if he gets downhill early, it forces the Clippers to collapse, which is exactly how Curry ends up getting those clean relocation threes that feel like daggers.
Prediction
The Clippers can absolutely make this uncomfortable if Kawhi and Harden control the tempo and Zubac turns it into a paint-and-glass night.
But with the Warriors having the cleaner offensive identity, the higher pace ceiling, and way more ways to generate easy points, I’m leaning Warriors.
Prediction: Warriors 117, Clippers 110
