Wednesday night gives the West a real elimination game. The Clippers host the Warriors at Intuit Dome at 10 p.m. ET in the 9-10 play-in matchup.
The Clippers finished 42-40 and ninth. The Warriors finished 37-45 and 10th. The Clippers went 23-18 at home, while the Warriors went 15-26 on the road. The Clippers also come in with the recent edge. They beat the Warriors 115-110 on Sunday, won the season series 3-1, and have taken 10 of the last 11 meetings overall. The winner moves on to face the Suns on Friday for the No. 8 seed. The loser is out.
The star power is still clear, even with both rosters carrying some damage. Kawhi Leonard closed the regular season at 27.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.6 assists while shooting 50.5% from the field and 38.7% from three. Darius Garland averaged 18.8 points, 6.7 assists, and 2.4 rebounds in 45 games this season, and his playmaking is a big part of why this matchup leans toward the Clippers.
For the Warriors, Stephen Curry averaged 26.6 points, 4.7 assists and 3.6 rebounds, while Brandin Podziemski posted 13.8 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.7 assists. The complication is Curry’s workload. He is expected to remain on a minutes restriction of around 30 minutes, which changes the shape of a single-elimination game.
Injury Report
Clippers
Bradley Beal: Out (left hip fracture)
Yanic Konan Niederhauser: Out (right Lisfranc ligament tear)
Isaiah Jackson: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Warriors
Jimmy Butler III: Out (right ACL surgery)
Moses Moody: Out (left patellar tendon surgery)
Quinten Post: Out (right foot injury management)
Why The Clippers Have The Advantage
The first edge is control. The Clippers have been the steadier team in this matchup all season. They won the series 3-1, they won both home games, and they have beaten the Warriors in 10 of the last 11 meetings. Sunday’s game looked familiar, too. The Clippers did not need a perfect night. They just stayed organized longer, shot better late, and let the Warriors drift into a bad fourth quarter. In a one-game setting, that matters a lot.
The second edge is efficiency. The Clippers shot 48.5% from the field this season and 36.8% from three. They also led the league in free-throw percentage at 82.2% and kept their turnovers down better than most teams, with a 14.0 turnover percentage. That profile is useful in a pressure game because it reduces empty possessions. The Warriors create more volume from three, but the Clippers are cleaner on normal half-court trips, and that usually decides these 9-10 games more than highlight offense does.
Kawhi Leonard is the biggest reason to lean this way. The Warriors still have the most dangerous shooter in the game, but Leonard is the more reliable full-possession scorer right now because there is no minute cap attached to him. The Clippers can run a slower game through him, get to the line, and trust his shot profile late. That gives them a cleaner offensive base than the Warriors have if Curry is capped in the low 30s.
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
The Warriors still have the best offensive weapon on the floor, even with the restriction. Curry changes the geometry of every possession. He averaged 26.6 points and hit 39.3% from three, and even in just 29 minutes on Sunday, he still gave the Clippers 24 points. In a single game, that kind of shot-making can break every neat preview. If he gets hot early, the Clippers can be forced to play a much faster and less comfortable game.
There is also a style edge on the Warriors’ side. They finished first in passes per game, first in three-point attempts, second in made threes, and tied for second in steals. They are not built to win with control. They are built to win with pressure, pace, and volume. That can be dangerous for the Clippers because the Clippers do not generate a huge number of easy points. If the Warriors turn this into a scramble game, the math can swing quickly.
The other point is that the Warriors have less to protect inside the game itself. This is not a series. It is one night. Their path is simple: let Curry bend the defense, let Draymond Green organize the chaos, and try to steal a quarter with three-point volume. The regular-season record was poor, but that 15.7 made threes per game and 28.9 assists per game tell you they can still create a fast offensive run when things click for 10 or 12 minutes.
X-Factors
Bennedict Mathurin is a big swing piece for the Clippers in this matchup. He averaged 18.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.3 assists this season, and his role matters because the Warriors will put so much attention on Kawhi Leonard in the half-court. Mathurin gives the Clippers another scorer who can attack closeouts, get into the paint, and create points without the offense scrambling.
John Collins is the other Clippers x-factor. He finished the regular season at 13.6 points and 5.3 rebounds while shooting 55.2% from the field and 40.6% from three. That is a strong fit against the Warriors because he can hurt them in two ways. He can finish inside if the game gets physical, and he can also stretch the floor if the Warriors help too hard on Leonard or Garland. If Collins gives the Clippers efficient offense without needing a high volume of touches, the home side gets much harder to guard.
Draymond Green is the first swing piece for the Warriors. He averaged 8.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists, and this is exactly the kind of game where those numbers matter more than they look. He has to defend Leonard, screen for Curry, make the short-roll pass, and keep the Warriors from wasting possessions. If he controls the middle of the floor, the Warriors have a real shot.
Charles Bassey is the other one. He averaged only 5.8 points and 4.4 rebounds in the regular season, but his recent games with the Warriors have been more important than that line suggests. He had 14 points and 12 rebounds against the Kings, then 16 points in Sunday’s loss to the Clippers. The Warriors need a live big man who can finish and rebound because the Clippers will try to drag them into a physical half-court game. If Bassey gives them second chances and rim pressure, the Warriors become much harder to manage.
Prediction
The Clippers are the cleaner pick. They are at home, they won the season series 3-1, and they have fewer built-in limitations going into the game. The Warriors still have the most explosive player, and that alone keeps this dangerous for 48 minutes. But the Curry minutes cap is a real issue, and the Clippers have looked more stable in this matchup from opening night through Sunday’s tune-up. I think the Warriors make enough shots to keep it tight. I also think the Clippers execute better late.
Prediction: Clippers 112, Warriors 107
