The Toronto Raptors host the Golden State Warriors at Scotiabank Arena on Sunday afternoon, with a 3:30 PM ET tip. The Raptors come in at 18-14 (5th in the East), while the Warriors are 16-15 (8th in the West), and both teams badly want this one for different reasons.
The Raptors are trying to steady themselves at home after a rough stretch in their own building, while the Warriors are basically chasing consistency away from home all season.
As for the headliners, the Warriors still ride Stephen Curry, who’s at 28.4 points per game this season. The Raptors’ top scorer has been Brandon Ingram at 21.9 points per game, and he’s been efficient at 47.2% from the field.
Injury Report
Raptors
Jakob Poeltl: Out (lower back strain)
RJ Barrett: Questionable (right knee sprain)
Collin Murray-Boyles: Questionable (illness)
Warriors
Seth Curry: Out (left sciatic nerve irritation)
De’Anthony Melton: Out (left knee injury management)
Brandin Podziemski: Probable (left abdominal contusion)
Why The Raptors Have The Advantage
The Raptors’ best edge is the simplest one: they can make this game physical and drag the Warriors into a slog where every possession feels like work. That’s when the Raptors are at their best, because they don’t need a perfect offensive night to win, they need the opponent to get frustrated.
Even on the season, the Raptors have played solid two-way basketball by the numbers. They’re scoring 113.5 points per game with a 114.2 offensive rating, and they’ve held opponents to a 113.1 defensive rating. That’s not an elite profile, but it’s steady, and steady is usually enough at home if you can win the toughness minutes.
This matchup also lines up nicely with what the Raptors want to do through Ingram. He isn’t a “spam threes and pray” guy. He lives in the midrange, he gets to his pull-up spots, and he can punish switches if the Warriors try to keep everything in front. If the Raptors get even decent availability from their perimeter rotation, they can keep a second creator on the floor and avoid the dead possessions that kill them late.
The other angle is rebounding and paint pressure. With Jakob Poeltl out, the Raptors have leaned on different looks inside, but they can still win the paint battle by committee if they’re the more urgent team. Against a Warriors group that has been shaky on the road, that effort edge matters.
Bottom line: if the Raptors slow the pace, keep Curry from getting clean early threes, and turn this into a “first to 110” game, they’ve got a real chance to control the script.
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
The Warriors have the higher ceiling, and it’s not subtle. When Curry gets rolling, the geometry of the court changes, and the Raptors can’t guard that with “good intentions.” They need perfect execution, and that’s hard for 48 minutes.
The Warriors are scoring 114.5 points per game, and the bigger thing is how their defense has looked lately. Over their last five games, they’ve posted a 116.8 offensive rating and a 110.9 defensive rating, which screams that they’re starting to find rhythm on both ends. That lines up with the recent results too, because they’ve come in playing better basketball than the early-season “what are they?” version.
Defensively, the Warriors have been strong enough on the season to give themselves a floor, sitting at a 112.2 defensive rating. And one more thing: the Raptors themselves have admitted the home-court identity hasn’t been there lately, which is exactly the kind of crack the Warriors can exploit if they start hot.
The matchup swing is spacing. The Raptors are solid, but they aren’t built to chase elite movement and off-ball shooting all night. If Curry forces extra attention, the Warriors can win the “second reaction” game, kickouts, extra passes, and open threes after the defense already moved once.
Also, the Warriors don’t need to dominate in the half-court to win. If they simply take care of the ball and avoid giving the Raptors free transition chances, they can grind out points with shot-making. That’s usually where road games flip: one team makes the simple plays, the other starts pressing.
Raptors vs. Warriors Prediction
This feels like a tight, uncomfortable game for a while, then it comes down to who has the best “late-clock answer.” That’s still Curry.
I’m taking the Warriors to steal one on the road, mostly because their recent defense has looked sharper, and I trust their shot-making when the game gets weird.
Prediction: Warriors 116, Raptors 112
