The Clippers host the Lakers at Intuit Dome on Thursday, January 22, at 7:00 PM PT.
The Clippers come in at 19-24 as the No. 10 seed in the West, while the Lakers sit at 26-16 as the No. 5 seed.
The Clippers just got punched in the mouth by the Bulls on Tuesday, a 138-110 loss that snapped their recent surge.
The Lakers, meanwhile, walked into Denver and grabbed a 115-107 win that looked way more “locked in” than their ugly stretches from earlier in the month.
This is the first meeting of the season between these two teams, with a rematch already scheduled for February 20. So yeah, the tiebreaker math starts tonight.
For the Clippers, James Harden is still putting up star numbers at 26.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 8.0 assists, and everything flows through his pace and foul pressure. Kawhi Leonard is right there at 28.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.5 assists, but his status is a real swing factor.
For the Lakers, Luka Doncic has been a problem for the whole league at 33.5 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 8.7 assists. LeBron James is still steady at 22.6 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 6.9 assists, even with the season being weird health-wise.
Injury Report
Clippers
Bradley Beal: Out (left hip fracture)
Bogdan Bogdanovic: Out (left hamstring, injury management)
Derrick Jones Jr.: Out (right knee sprain)
Chris Paul: Out (not with team)
Kawhi Leonard: Questionable (left knee contusion)
Lakers
Austin Reaves: Out (left calf strain)
Adou Thiero: Out (right MCL sprain)
Why The Clippers Have The Advantage
If Kawhi plays, the Clippers’ shot quality jumps immediately. Harden bends defenses with the ball, Kawhi punishes switches, and it becomes a “pick your poison” game that the Clippers rarely get when they’re missing wings. And even if Kawhi sits, the Clippers can still generate efficient looks because Harden basically lives at the line and controls the tempo.
The other thing is defense by comparison. The Clippers give up 113.8 points per game, and the Lakers give up 116.5. That gap matters in a matchup that usually swings on two or three mini-runs.
And the Clippers can win the math battle from three. They’re hitting 36.4% from deep as a team, while the Lakers sit at 34.8%. If you’re the home team and you’re the better three-point shooting group, that’s usually where the game tilts late.
Why The Lakers Have The Advantage
The Lakers are simply the bigger offensive engine right now. They’re scoring 116.3 points per game on 49.6% from the field, and they’re moving it too, 24.9 assists per night. The Clippers are at 112.3 points per game on 47.4% shooting. That’s not a tiny gap, that’s a different tier of nightly scoring.
And the matchup starts with Luka. He’s the league’s top-volume creator, he’s putting up 33.5 a night, and he’s the exact type of player who can ruin a home crowd by turning the whole game into “switch, hunt, punish.” If the Clippers overhelp, he’s spraying it to shooters. If they stay home, he’s walking into floaters and step-backs.
The one annoying part for the Lakers is they can’t be sloppy. They average 15.1 turnovers, and the Clippers also sit at 15.1, so it’s basically even. But if the Lakers’ giveaways turn into runouts, that’s how you let the Clippers steal a game they “shouldn’t” win on paper.
X-Factors
Ivica Zubac is the Clippers’ quiet cheat code in games like this. He’s at 14.8 points and 10.8 rebounds, and if he owns the glass, it forces the Lakers into ugly possessions where Luka has to create against a set defense every single time. That’s exhausting.
Kris Dunn is the kind of role guy who decides rivalry games without anyone noticing until it’s too late. He’s only at 8.0 points and 3.2 assists, but if he turns Luka’s dribble into pressure, deflections, and wasted clock, the whole Clippers defense looks faster than it really is.
John Collins is another swing piece because the Clippers need his energy when wings are banged up. He’s at 13.3 points on 55.6% shooting, and if he’s crashing hard and finishing through contact, it gives the Clippers scoring that doesn’t depend on Harden isolations.
On the Lakers’ side, Deandre Ayton is massive on the floor. He’s at 13.9 points and 8.8 rebounds while shooting a ridiculous 68.5% from the field. If he’s getting early seals and forcing Zubac into foul trouble, the Clippers lose their best “calm the game down” defensive piece.
Marcus Smart is the vibe guy the Lakers lean on when games get chippy. He’s at 10.0 points and 2.8 assists, and he can flip the fourth quarter with two straight stops, a charge, and one momentum three. In a game that’s going to feel like a classic, that stuff counts.
Prediction
I’m taking the Lakers, and I don’t think it’s complicated. They’re the better team, they’re the bigger offensive threat, and Luka is the best player in the matchup. The Clippers can absolutely steal it if Kawhi plays and they get hot from three, but the Lakers’ creation edge feels like the difference in the final six minutes.
Prediction: Lakers 119, Clippers 113
