The Los Angeles Lakers went 50-32 in 2024-25, and Bill Simmons thinks they won’t be quite as successful in 2025-26. The first part of The Ringer’s annual NBA Over/Unders podcast was released on Tuesday, and Simmons went with the under for the Lakers at 47.5 wins.
“I guess the question for me when LeBron [James] comes back, can you actually be a contender when you have to hide your three best guys on defense?” Simmons asked. “That’s the part I can’t wrap my head around with this team. Their three best guys are all people you would attack if you’re the other team on defense at this point.”
Zach Lowe brought up that LeBron James played great defense for about two months last season, but Simmons, who has admitted to being a Lakers hater, doesn’t believe that’s something he can replicate.
“He’s going to be a year older, and now he has some sort of herniated disc,” Simmons said. “Whatever, it makes me nervous. I’ll just spoil my pick right now. I’m under for this, I think. I have them in like the 44 to 46 range.”
If the Lakers win just 44 games this season, it would be quite a disappointment. A big concern when it comes to this team is indeed James’ health. He is currently dealing with sciatica, which has ruled him out for three to four weeks.
You do wonder how many games James, who averaged 24.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, 8.2 assists, 1.0 steals, and 0.6 blocks per game in 2024-25, will end up playing this season. Provided the number isn’t below 50, you would think the Lakers would get to 50 wins again, thanks in large part to a certain Slovenian.
We’ve seen Luka Doncic take worse supporting casts than this one to better records in the past. Doncic led the Dallas Mavericks to a 43-32 record in 2019-20, his second season in the NBA, when Kristaps Porzingis was the second-best player on the team. Porzingis also missed 18 games in that campaign, and they finished well over .500.
Doncic, who averaged 28.2 points, 8.1 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 1.6 steals, and 0.4 blocks per game for the Lakers in 2024-25, is a better player now than he was back then. Even if James is out for long stretches, the Slovenian will have Austin Reaves next to him to carry the load on offense.
Reaves isn’t a star, but you can pencil him in for about 20 points a night. He put up 20.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.1 steals, and 0.3 blocks per game in 2024-25, and those numbers would go up if James isn’t available for a sizable chunk of the campaign.
Defense is undoubtedly a concern, but not to the point where the Lakers barely finish over .500. You doubt they can win a championship with this group, but they should be fine in the regular season.
Another point to note here is that head coach JJ Redick should also be better this season. Redick was a rookie last time around, and you’d expect some improvement from him as well, now that he has some experience under his belt.
We had the Lakers at 51 wins in our predictions, and it will be interesting to see who ends up being right come the end of the campaign.
