The Los Angeles Lakers made one of the best picks in the first round of the 2024 NBA Draft, landing Dalton Knecht with the 17th pick. While drafting a 23-year-old rookie is always risky, the Lakers were banking on Knecht’s win-now potential to help the franchise spruce up its shooting.Â
It looked like the Knecht selection was inspired, as the 6’6″ swingman had a huge impact in wins over the Utah Jazz (37 PTS, 9-12 3P) and San Antonio Spurs (20 PTS, 4-10 3P) with standout performances early in the season. But as his rookie season has continued, Knecht has seen his numbers drop significantly.
He’s averaging 9.4 points and 3.2 rebounds this season on 33.9% from three. His shooting percentage has been greatly hurt by a seemingly rotten run of form where Knecht has gone 13-63 from three (19.0 3P%).
So is this a reason to worry for the Lakers? Let’s analyze this situation.
Just A Rookie Slump
In my estimation, what Knecht is going through is a spell of form almost every rookie in the NBA goes through. Efficiency is one of the hardest arts to master in the NBA, as everyone can be a good shooter but not everyone can be an efficient shooter. This season, Knecht has been far from efficient but has been encouraged by the coaching staff to take three-pointers at will as one of the best shooters on the roster.
Games where Knecht scores over 30 points steal the headlines, but those games are far-and-few for NBA rookies, even the elite ones. The hope is that they can find a comfortable baseline of solid production, something Knecht has yet to do. His minutes keep fluctuating due to his poor form, with the Lakers unable to let him shoot through such struggles due to the winning expectations on the roster.
Rookies go through peaks and troughs in the NBA before finding what makes them the best. The Lakers have optimized Knecht’s situation by leaning on his strongest skill, but the challenge of executing that consistently at a high level in the NBA is immense, even if it’s a 23-year-old rookie.
Exposing Overall Offensive Holes
Knecht’s slump in form has hurt the Lakers overall, as the team hasn’t been nearly potent enough offensively. This is a poor shooting roster at its core, with last season’s best shooter D’Angelo Russell having already left and LeBron James not shooting it as efficiently as he did in 2023-24. Without Knecht spacing the floor, the Lakers are looking like one of the weakest three-point shooting teams on paper.
As Knecht struggles, the Lakers’ offense does too. The team has a 119.7 offensive rating over the last 10 games, a span where Knecht averaged 8.1 points on 23.1% from three. If he can’t make teams respect him on the three-point line, he provides minimal offensive value on the court and will continue losing more minutes if he can’t turn it around.
The Lakers have been a poorly built shooting roster for a few seasons, relying on high-quality outside attempts to make sure their shooters have the best chance of converting them. The conversion has been pretty low this season, and without Knecht, it leaves them looking scared.
They’re a bottom-five three-point shooting team this season, averaging 35.3 3P% on 33.9 attempts per game.
Should Fans Lose Hope?
With most rookies, it’s easy to explain away the bad stretches as a learning curve. You expect older rookies like Knecht to be better equipped at translating their game to the highest level.Â
That seemed to be the case when Knecht was having his hot games but hasn’t looked like it at all during almost any other game. He’s not productive offensively or defensive right now, but the Lakers don’t have additional rotational players waiting for an opportunity behind him.
The Lakers fans shouldn’t lose hope but they should readjust their expectations. Expecting Knecht to be a 40% or even 38% shooter from three as a rookie is too bold, and his unlimited green light means he’s chucking shots up when he shouldn’t as well. It doesn’t make for pretty basketball, especially if you’re anticipating a miss.
Nonetheless, Knecht brings youthful energy to the team while helping them set up for the future. Knecht might be 23 right now, but he’s bound to get better at shooting on an NBA court the more games he plays. He’s still fitting in right now, so nobody should overreact, and hope he finds his shooting arm once again to inject the Lakers with life.
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