The Los Angeles Lakers are currently in the middle of a competitive Western Conference playoff race, which has them clinging to sixth in the standings at 37-24. Being just 1.5 games back from the third seed, and two games back from the seventh-seeded Suns, how they finish the rest of this regular season could very well determine their chances for success in the playoffs.
With 21 games to go, it’s impossible to know for sure how the Lakers will fare, but we can make a guess based on what we’ve seen so far. Assuming everyone is healthy, a reasonable estimate can be drawn on the Lakers’ remaining schedule, and it paints an interesting picture of where they stand this season.
March 5th vs. Nuggets: Loss
The Nuggets have been one of the best teams in the West this season, and they are tough to beat at home. Coming off a two-game homestand, the odds are stacked against the Lakers to take the win tonight against a Nuggets squad led by Nikola Jokic.
March 6th vs. Pacers: Win
Without Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers should be an easy win for the Lakers. They’ve struggled all season, and currently rank 15th in the East at 15-47. Losing this game would be cause for concern among the fans, especially with the Lakers battling for a playoff position in the standings.
March 8th vs. Knicks: Loss
The Knicks are a winnable matchup for the Lakers, especially at the Crypto.com arena. But the Lakers have already lost once to this team, and we saw in the previous game how much of a poor matchup this is for Los Angeles. Considering the Knicks’ size and depth, I’m predicting a loss for the Lakers that will surely disappoint the fans.
March 10th vs. Timberwolves: Win
The Timberwolves have been streaky all season, and it’s hard to trust them to beat a healthy Lakers team on the road. They are 0-2 against Luka and co already, showing their difficulty containing the high-powered offense. As long as Doncic can outplay Edwards, LA should have a clear path to victory in this contest.
March 12th vs. Bulls: Win
At 12th in the East, the Bulls are easy pickings right now, and they don’t have anyone to guard Luka Doncic, LeBron James, or Austin Reaves. While some of their scorers can go off occasionally, I trust JJ Redick to come up with a gameplan that keeps the Bulls in check. If worst comes to worst, they can always count on Luka Doncic to carry them home.
March 14th vs. Nuggets: Loss
The Lakers will have one last crack at the Nuggets later this month, but they will surely be considered underdogs to win. Even at home, they will struggle to find an answer to Nikola Jokic, who has beaten them multiple times in the playoffs in the past. There’s always the potential for an upset, but it’s unlikely with Deandre Ayton starting at center.
March 16th at Rockets: Loss
The Rockets smoked the Lakers on Christmas Day, thanks to hot shooting from Kevin Durant and Amen Thompson. At home, there’s reason to believe they can replicate that performance at least once if they are at full health. For the Lakers to pull off the upset against the West’s third seed (38-22), they’ll need their front court to step up on the boards, a category they’ve been lacking all season.
March 18th at Rockets: Win
Houston has the weapons to overwhelm the Purple and Gold, but they lack the consistency and depth to beat them two straight times. JJ Redick and his coaching staff will get the players to adjust, switching the strategy, lineups, or whatever else is necessary to ensure that they avoid losing two straight against the same team.
March 19th at Heat: Loss
The Miami Heat are a well-coached and well-balanced unit that feeds off the energy from its fans. Bam Adebayo will make things tough, and it won’t help that this game is the second night of a back-to-back. For the Lakers, we can expect some absences, which would make them especially vulnerable in enemy territory.
March 21st at Magic: Win
The Lakers lost to the Magic back in February, and they’ll be looking for revenge in this rematch. In Orlando, the Magic will have the support of their home fans, but they lack the pieces to keep up with LA’s high-scoring offense. Assuming the Lakers can contain Paolo Banchero, it shouldn’t be too difficult to pull out a win.
March 23rd at Pistons: Loss
Los Angeles has struggled against top contenders this season, and it won’t be any easier against the Pistons, who currently sit atop the East standings. Detroit is at its best on its home court, meaning the Lakers will get the best version of a team that’s on track to win 60+ games. It will take a sharp and cohesive effort to pull off the upset, and most experts will be betting against them.
March 25th at Pacers: Win
It’s fortunate that the Lakers still play the Pacers twice this season. Even on the road, this game should be an easy victory for the Lakers, assuming they don’t play down to the competition. Without Haliburton, Indiana is in full tank mode, and the Lakers’ roster is superior in virtually every way. While Pascal Siakam can pose a real threat, his efforts will be in vain unless someone else can step up with an unlikely performance.
March 27th vs. Nets: Win
These types of games are the ones that the Lakers are supposed to win. Against a Nets team that’s been awful all year, losing at home would be akin to a major disappointment. As long as Luka Doncic is in uniform, the Lakers will be in a good position to dominate, just as everyone expects.
March 30th vs. Wizards: Win
Trae Young has returned for the Washington Wizards, but that doesn’t mean they are ready to start winning games. The inexperienced team hasn’t developed its chemistry, and (without Anthony Davis), they don’t have the personnel to keep up with LA. For the Lakers, a win should be relatively easy here, so long as they can keep up with the younger competition on the floor.
March 31st vs. Cavaliers: Loss
With James Harden and Donovan Mitchell, no wins came easily against the new-look Cavs. LeBron James will surely be inspired against his former team, but defense is one category in which the Purple and Gold have struggled all year. If the trend holds up, it’s hard to see how they could contain Cleveland and their stacked roster full of size, shooting, and elite interior play.
April 2nd at Thunder: Loss
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has returned for the Thunder, meaning they are once again in a position to dominate the West. The Lakers are winless against them in 2025-26, and it’s clear by now that they have no clue how to play this team. Without home court advantage, the odds are stacked even more against the Lakers for this one.
April 5th at Mavericks: Win
The Mavericks and Lakers have a lot of history with each other, but there shouldn’t be any drama in their last meeting of the season. Luka always goes off against his former team, and the Mavericks just aren’t in a position to respond in a way that would make the game competitive. Never say never in the NBA, but the odds don’t favor victory for a Mavericks squad that doesn’t have much left to play for right now.
April 7th vs. Thunder: Win
The Lakers will have played five games against Oklahoma City by the season’s end, and you have to think they’ll be able to win one of them. Whether it’s an injury absence, game-time adjustments, or simply increased intensity from the players, we can expect something to flip the Lakers’ way, and this game presents the perfect opportunity to make a statement before the playoffs. At the very least, we can trust JJ Redick will have a more comprehensive game plan to disrupt OKC’s offense.
April 9th at Warriors: Win
The Warriors are in a very similar boat as the Lakers: stuck in purgatory as a middle-of-the-pack team. Besides Stephen Curry, they lack a reliable source of scoring, which explains their mediocre 31-30 record. At full strength, the Lakers are better all-around than the Warriors, and they shouldn’t have too much trouble outscoring them when it matters.
April 10th vs. Suns: Loss
As a scrappy, well-rounded team that plays with purpose and physicality, the Suns are exactly the type of opponent that the Lakers struggle to beat. They are 1-3 against Phoenix, mostly due to the efforts of guys like Dillon Brooks and Devin Booker. Unless the Lakers can match their intensity and motor, a loss seems like the most likely outcome.
April 12th vs. Jazz: Win
The Lakers will end the 2025-26 season with an easy victory. The Jazz have been tanking for months, and they will not be playing to win in the final game of the year. Even if Redick opts to rest his starters for the playoffs, the Lakers should still have the upper hand against a Utah squad that’s only won 18 games so far.
Record: 12-9
If the projections play out perfectly, the Lakers will finish 49-33, one game below their record last year. It’s hardly the improvement Lakers fans were expecting to see, but what really matters is what happens in the playoffs. As long as they can secure a top-six seed, the Lakers will have a chance to get hot and make a run when the stakes are highest.
As for what rank they’ll be when they get there, we can only guess. They are sixth right now, but they could settle as high as fifth or fourth, depending on how the teams above them close out the season. That position would set the Lakers up for a difficult first-round fight, either against the Rockets, Nuggets, or Timberwolves, before a difficult semi-Finals showdown against the Thunder or Spurs.
The best scenario would be a matchup with the Rockets in the first round before facing the Spurs in the Semi-Finals, but any roster with Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, and LeBron James has a chance to go all the way (regardless of the competition). If they can stay healthy, no teams are going to underestimate their firepower down the stretch of this season.
