The Boston Celtics host the OKC Thunder at the TD Garden on Wednesday, March 25, at 7:30 p.m. ET.
The Celtics are 47-24 and second in the East with a 24-11 home record, while the Thunder are 57-15 and first in the West with a 28-8 road record.
The Celtics are coming off a close 102-92 loss against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday, while the Thunder picked up their 12th consecutive win with a 123-103 effort over the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday. Tonight’s game will be their second and final encounter of the season, with the Thunder’s 104-102 win over the Celtics on March 12 being a part of OKC’s ongoing 12-game win streak.
The Celtics are led by Jaylen Brown, who’s averaging 28.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.1 assists, and is hoping to add another argument to his case for All-NBA First Team with a win over the best team in the NBA. Derrick White is their true second option right now, averaging 17.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists over the season, serving as the perfect glue guy on a roster that’s trying to reintroduce Jayson Tatum into its offense.
The Thunder are led by MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s averaging 31.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 6.6 assists this season. He’ll be joined by his trusted co-star Chet Holmgren, who’s averaged 17.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks as a two-way force for the franchise this season.
This is an inter-conference clash of the highest order, as both teams look to send a message with a defining late-season win. The Thunder are trying to hold off the surging Spurs from the No. 1 seed while the Celtics are hoping to pounce on the No. 1 seed Pistons in their conference. Neither team will give an inch in this exciting matchup.
Injury Report
Celtics
Nikola Vucevic: Out (finger)
Hawks
Thomas Sorber: Out (knee)
Why The Celtics Have The Advantage
The Celtics have been one of the best teams in the NBA all year with good reason. They don’t have many chart-topping statistical milestones, but the team has been remarkably consistent across the board.
Despite having a low points output on the season (114.1 PPG, 22nd in the NBA), the Celtics have one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA. They have a 119.3 offensive rating, which would be the second-best in the NBA. They also have an excellent 111.5 defensive rating on the season (fourth-best in the NBA), giving them a strong +7.8 net rating, which ranks third in the NBA. However, Boston lags behind the Thunder in defensive and net rating, so their offense is where they need to look to execute this win.
The Celtics rank third in three-pointers attempted this season with 42.3 per game, which they convert at a 36.0% clip. While their efficiency ranks middle-of-the-pack, their volume shooting means they’re fourth in the NBA in total threes made this season. With players firmly in shooting rhythms by late-March, the Celtics could be one hot rally away from putting the Thunder to bed.
Boston has the defensive structure to force Gilgeous-Alexander into a rough night and systematically shut off the Thunder offense. That couples with their shooting ability, the Celtics have more than just a puncher’s chance against the hottest team in the NBA.
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
The margins between the Thunder and the Celtics are slim, but most of the stats on the season tend to favor the Thunder’s body of work. OKC is fifth in points per game (118.7), third in steals (9.7), fifth in field goal percentage (48.2%), and second in free throw percentage (82.1).
The Thunder’s offensive strategy is quite different from the Celtics’, as they look to generate points out of downhill opportunities, primarily created by star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder are fourth in drives per game (54.7) and third in drive points per game (32.5).
They’re the best defensive team in the NBA with a 106.0 defensive rating, which means their seventh-best offense with a 117.1 rating gives them a +11.1 net rating, the best in the NBA by over 3.1 points. The Thunder’s defensive excellence is also a product of their defensive activity, with the franchise forcing 20.8 deflections per game (second-most).
The Thunder also have the best bench unit in the league by far, with their bench having a +5.4 rating, which is better than many Playoff teams can say about their starting units. This is a well-oiled machine that has virtually no weaknesses. The best shot any opponent has at beating them is to catch fire from outside, which is why this matchup is so entertaining, because that’s the one thing the Celtics can do better than most others in the NBA.
X-Factors
Jayson Tatum pushed hard to make an early return to the court after his Achilles rupture last season, but the results have been mixed. He’s averaged 19.1 points and 8.9 rebounds on 38.8% shooting in eight games since returning. While he’s still getting court rust off him right now to be ready for the Playoffs, a high-stakes game against a team like the Thunder might be the perfect time for the 27-year-old forward to break out of his slump.
Payton Pritchard has been an ever-dependable member of the Celtics rotation. While his offensive production is guaranteed, Pritchard has had a productive season as a guard who can impact all facets of the game. He’s averaging 16.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 5.3 assists this season and will be a guard the Thunder will hope to lock down, as Pritchard getting hot means a Celtics win. Boston has a 19-3 record in games where he scores over 20 points this season.
Jalen Williams has had a season disrupted with injuries, but last year’s All-NBA selection is averaging 17.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 5.4 assists this season. He seems to have found his rhythm over the Thunder’s undefeated March campaign and will be the key difference-maker for the Thunder outside the production they get from Gilgeous-Alexander.
Ajay Mitchell has been one of the best unsung guards in the NBA. He’s stepped up every time the Thunder have had a key absence this season, averaging 14.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.6 assists over the season. He can score on all three-levels while playing high-effort defense, so a player like that should never be counted out from being the decisive factor in a close game.
Prediction
The Celtics are one of the few teams that could go head-to-head with the current version of the Thunder and emerge victorious, but it’s hard to see that happening here. Even with home-court advantage, the Thunder have been dispatching their opponents comfortably, whether it’s on the road or at home. Unless there’s some major three-point variance, it’s hard to see what weakness the Celtics can attack to emerge victorious here. Tatum is also a huge x-factor for this, but it looks like OKC will pick up their 13th straight win against a high-level Eastern Conference opponent.
Prediction: Celtics 116, Thunder 122
