The Atlanta Hawks host the Miami Heat at State Farm Arena on December 26, with both teams stuck in the same uncomfortable neighborhood of the East standings. The Heat sit at 15-15 (8th) and the Hawks are 15-16 (9th), so this is basically a two-point swing in the Play-In race if you’re thinking long-term.
It’s also their first meeting of the season, which usually means the game gets decided by who imposes their style first instead of who “already solved” the matchup.
The stars are obvious. Trae Young has averaged 19.3 points and 9.1 assists this season, and Jalen Johnson has been a walking triple-double threat at 23.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 8.3 assists on 52.3% from the field.
For the Heat, Norman Powell has been the leading scorer at 23.7 points per game on 47.8% from the field and 40.7% from three, while Bam Adebayo has put up 18.3 points and 9.4 rebounds.
Injury Report
Hawks
N’Faly Dante: Out (right knee torn ACL)
Nikola Durisic: Questionable (G League)
Mouhamed Gueye: Questionable (right shoulder sprain)
Caleb Houstan: Questionable (G League)
Eli John Ndiaye: Out (G League)
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Heat
Tyler Herro: Out (right big toe contusion)
Terry Rozier: Out (not with team)
Bam Adebayo: Questionable (lower back soreness)
Keshad Johnson: Questionable (illness)
Nikola Jovic: Probable (right elbow contusion/laceration)
Pelle Larsson: Probable (left ankle sprain)
Andrew Wiggins: Available (lower back pain)
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Available (left calf soreness)
Davion Mitchell: Available (left ankle sprain)
Dru Smith: Available (right ankle impingement)
Kasparas Jakucionis: Available (left ankle soreness)
Why The Hawks Have The Advantage
The Hawks’ entire case is tempo plus ball movement. They’re scoring 118.8 points per game while leading the league at 31.1 assists per game, and that combo can make even good defenses start reaching and gambling. When the Hawks play clean, it turns into a constant chain reaction: drive, help, swing, corner three, repeat.
They also have a real path to winning the math. The Hawks shoot 48.3% from the field and 36.9% from three as a team, so if they get into a rhythm early, they can stack points fast without needing a perfect Trae takeover night. And they do push it: 101.61 pace this season, which helps them hunt early offense before the Heat can get fully organized.
The matchup problem is Jalen Johnson. His 23.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 8.3 assists aren’t just big numbers, they change how you’re allowed to guard Trae. If the Heat blitz or over-help on Trae, Johnson gets to play 4-on-3 and he’s been way too good as a passer and finisher to survive that for long.
And it’s not only the top two. Onyeka Okongwu has quietly given them 15.7 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 3.2 assists, which matters if the Heat are compromised inside at all. Vit Krejci has also been a legit role-player weapon, averaging 10.6 points while shooting 51.6% from the field and a ridiculous 47.7% from three. That’s the kind of shooting that punishes every late rotation.
The big swing is obvious: the Heat are missing Tyler Herro and might be limited with Bam. If the Heat can’t create enough easy shots, the Hawks can run them out of the gym with volume and movement.
Why The Heat Have The Advantage
The Heat advantage is defense plus rebounding, and it lines up nicely against a Hawks team that has struggled to get stops. The Hawks have a 116.4 defensive rating, which is the kind of number that makes opposing guards feel very, very comfortable. The Heat sit at 112.8 defensive rating, and that gap matters in a game where both offenses can score.
The other big edge is the glass. The Heat pull down 45.4 rebounds per game, and that’s huge because extra possessions can cover up cold shooting stretches. Kel’el Ware has been a monster there at 12.2 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per game, and if he controls the paint, the Hawks are going to feel it.
Offensively, Powell is the nightmare factor. 23.7 points per game, 2.9 threes per game, and 40.7% from three is exactly the profile that can torch a defense that doesn’t stay attached. If the Hawks send too much help at him, the Heat have enough secondary playmaking to keep the ball moving.
Jaime Jaquez matters too. He’s at 15.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.7 assists, and he plays the kind of bully-ball wing style that can stabilize an offense when things get choppy.
The Heat also won’t be scared of pace. They’re at 103.94 pace this season, so they can run right back instead of letting the Hawks dictate the speed. If they keep this close late, I trust their structure more than the Hawks’ ability to get consecutive stops.
Heat vs. Hawks Prediction
This one screams “injury swing,” and Bam’s tag is the headline. If he plays and looks close to normal, the Heat have the defensive ceiling to grind out a win. If he’s limited, the Hawks’ spacing and passing can flip the game in a hurry.
I’m taking the Hawks at home because their offensive profile is just cleaner right now, and they can win the possession battle with assists and threes even if they never lock in defensively.
Prediction: Hawks 121, Heat 115
