The Miami Heat host the Toronto Raptors at Kaseya Center on December 23, and it feels like one of those East games where the standings pressure shows up early.
The Raptors are 17-13 and fifth in the East, while the Heat are 15-14 and eighth. These teams already met once this season, and the Raptors took that matchup 106-96 on December 15.
From a star-power angle, the Heat have gotten a huge scoring season from Norman Powell, who’s at 24.0 points per game on 48.3% from the field. Bam Adebayo has remained the steady interior anchor at 18.3 points and 9.4 rebounds per game.
For the Raptors, Brandon Ingram has led the way at 22.0 points per game, and Scottie Barnes has been the all-around connector at 19.1 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 5.1 assists while shooting 49.8% from the field.
Injury Report
Heat
Tyler Herro: Out (right big toe contusion)
Terry Rozier: Out (not with team)
Nikola Jovic: Out (right elbow contusion/laceration)
Pelle Larsson: Out (left ankle sprain)
Norman Powell: Available (right thumb sprain)
Andrew Wiggins: Available (lower back pain)
Kasparas Jakucionis: Available (left ankle soreness)
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Available (left calf soreness)
Davion Mitchell: Available (left ankle sprain)
Dru Smith: Available (right ankle impingement)
Raptors
RJ Barrett: Out (right knee sprain)
Jakob Poeltl: Out (low back strain)
Why The Heat Have The Advantage
The Heat advantage starts with pace and rim pressure. They don’t want a pretty game, they want a stressful one, where you’re defending in transition and scrambling before you can set your matchups. That’s been the identity for this group, and it shows up in the way they generate offense.
The Heat rank near the top of the league in points in the paint at 55.0 per game, and they also sit among the leaders in drives per game, which tells you they’re constantly trying to crack the first line and force rotations.
That matters even more tonight because the Raptors are walking in without two major pieces. Without RJ Barrett, their wing depth and downhill scoring take a hit.
Without Jakob Poeltl, the defensive back line gets shaky fast, because he’s normally the guy who cleans up mistakes and keeps the paint from turning into layup lines. The Heat don’t need to be invited twice. If they can get downhill early, force help, and turn that into kick-outs and second chances, it’s the type of game where the Heat can build a lead without even shooting lights-out.
The other angle is the Heat’s rebounding and physicality. It’s not just Bam Adebayo either, because Kel’el Ware has been a real factor on the glass this season and the Heat have leaned into winning possessions, not just winning shot quality. When they control the rebound battle, they get to dictate tempo, and that’s usually where the Heat start looking like themselves.
Finally, there’s the simple “home-court correction” vibe. The Heat just saw this matchup go sideways in the first meeting, and the easiest adjustment is effort-based. Get back in transition, cut down the live-ball mistakes, and make the Raptors score against a set defense. If the Heat do that, their best path looks pretty clear: attack the rim, stack paint points, and wear the Raptors down with pace.
Why The Raptors Have The Advantage
The Raptors’ advantage is that they can win ugly, and they don’t need a perfect shooting night to do it. Their defensive profile has held up for most of the season, with a 113.0 defensive rating, and they’ve consistently looked most comfortable when they slow games down into half-court possessions where they can load up, contest, and finish possessions with rebounds.
They also have the type of creators who can survive when a defense turns the screws. Brandon Ingram can get a clean look late in the clock, and Scottie Barnes can keep the ball moving while still punishing mismatches when the switch is there. That matters because the Heat are going to pressure the ball and try to speed things up. If the Raptors keep their composure, they can flip that pressure into smart shots and free throws, and that’s how road wins happen.
There’s also a real “trend” warning light for the Heat lately. Both teams have hit a rough patch recently, but the Heat’s last-10 stretch has been brutal, and it’s often because their pace game gets taken away. When opponents get them into half-court basketball and keep them out of transition, the Heat’s offense can stall. The Raptors are exactly the kind of team that wants to take that away, and they already did it once in this matchup.
So even with the absences, the Raptors can still make this a game if they control tempo, limit turnovers, and force the Heat to score over a set defense for four quarters.
Heat vs. Raptors Prediction
This feels like a Heat response game. The Raptors’ structure and defense can absolutely keep it close, but the missing size in the middle tilts the matchup toward a big night in the paint for the Heat, especially if the tempo ramps up early.
Prediction: Heat 115, Raptors 109
