The Miami Heat welcome the Phoenix Suns to the Kaseya Center for a 7:30 PM EST tip in a matchup that brings together two teams moving in opposite directions.
The Heat enters the night at 20–19, eighth in the Eastern Conference, riding a three-game losing streak and having dropped five of its last ten. Their most recent outing was a 124–112 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, a game where defensive effort was there but offensive consistency was not.
The Suns, on the other hand, come in hot at 24–15, sixth in the West, winners of three straight and eight of their last ten, most recently handling the Washington Wizards 112–93 in a controlled road performance.
For the Heat, Norman Powell has quietly been their most consistent scorer, averaging 23.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 2.7 assists. His availability looms large, as he is listed as questionable. Tyler Herro, who is available despite a right big toe contusion, continues to be the engine of Miami’s offense, putting up 21.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game.
The Suns counters with elite shot creation from Devin Booker, who has been special this season at 25.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 6.4 assists. Booker’s ability to dictate tempo and punish mismatches is central to everything the Suns do. Dillon Brooks has also been a major two-way presence, averaging 21.2 points and 3.3 rebounds while bringing his trademark edge defensively.
This is the first meeting between the teams this season after splitting the series last year, and the contrast in current form is hard to ignore.
Injury Report
Heat
Myron Gardner: Out (G-League)
Vladislav Goldin: Out (G-League)
Jahmir Young: Out (G-League)
Terry Rozier: Out (Not with team)
Norman Powell: Questionable (Low back soreness)
Tyler Herro: Available (Right big toe contusion)
Suns
Pelle Larrson: Available (Finger injury)
Jamaree Bouyea: Out (Concussion protocol)
Jalen Green: Out (Right hamstring strain)
Jordan Goodwin: Available (Jaw sprain)
How The Heat Have The Advantage?
The Heat’s biggest edge comes at home. The Heat are 13–6 at the Kaseya Center and historically play with more defensive discipline on their own floor. They rank fourth in defensive rating, consistently shrinking the floor and forcing teams into late-clock decisions.
They are also efficient from deep, ranking eighth in three-point percentage, and seventh in rebounds, which matters against a Suns team that thrives on second-side actions. Ball movement has been solid as well, with Miami sitting seventh in assists. Add in their sixth-place ranking in steals and fourth in fouls committed, and you get a team that thrives on control rather than chaos.
How The Suns Have The Advantage?
The Suns’ advantages are just as clear. The Suns own the best defensive rating in the league and a top ten net rating, which reflects their balance on both ends. They take a high volume of threes, ranking eighth in attempts, and their activity level defensively is elite, leading the league in steals per game.
That pressure can bother Miami’s ball handlers, especially late in games. Phoenix has also been reliable away from home with a 10–10 road record, showing they are comfortable executing outside their own building.
X-Factors
For the Heat, the backbone of everything still starts with Bam Adebayo, who continues to be the Heat’s defensive anchor and connective piece on offense. Averaging 16.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 2.6 assists, Bam’s value often goes beyond the box score. His ability to switch defensively, protect the paint, and facilitate from the elbows is crucial against a Suns team that loves to force rotations.
Andrew Wiggins has quietly settled into a steady two way role, averaging 16.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists. He gives Miami another wing who can defend multiple positions while providing downhill scoring when the offense bogs down. His consistency has mattered during Miami’s recent struggles, especially on nights when perimeter shooting fluctuates.
Alongside him, Jaime Jaquez Jr. continues to look like one of the Heat’s most reliable all-around contributors. Averaging 15.9 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 4.6 assists, Jaquez plays with poise, makes smart reads, and thrives in Miami’s motion-based offense. His cutting and playmaking are particularly important against aggressive defenses.
The emergence of Kel’El Ware has added another dimension. Averaging 11.9 points and 10.2 rebounds, Ware gives the Heat size and rebounding that they have lacked at times. His ability to finish around the rim and clean the glass helps Miami survive stretches when shots are not falling.
On the Phoenix side, Grayson Allen has been excellent in his role, averaging 15.2 points and providing elite floor spacing. His shooting forces defenders to stay attached, which opens driving lanes for Booker and others.
Collin Gillespie has been one of the quiet finds of the season, averaging 13.2 points and 4.1 rebounds while bringing energy, toughness, and smart decision-making. He stabilizes second units and keeps Phoenix’s pace high.
Inside, Mark Williams continues to make an impact with 12.3 points and 8.2 rebounds, giving the Suns a reliable interior presence who can finish plays and battle on the boards.
Finally, Royce O’Neale rounds things out as a glue guy, averaging 10.5 points and 2.8 assists while guarding multiple positions and making the extra pass. His versatility often shows up most in close games, where small plays decide outcomes.
Prediction
This shapes up as a tight, physical game where execution late will decide it. The Heat’s defense and home court will keep them close, but the Suns’ momentum, depth, and defensive disruption give them the edge down the stretch.
Prediction: Heat 111, Suns 118
