Game 4 is at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday, June 10, at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Knicks lead the Spurs 2-1 in the NBA Finals, but the series changed after Game 3. The Spurs won 115-111, snapped the Knicks’ 13-game playoff winning streak, and made this a real Finals again. The Knicks still have control, but they can’t let this become 2-2 before the series goes back to San Antonio.
Victor Wembanyama was the difference in Game 3 with 32 points, eight rebounds, six assists, three blocks, and two steals. Stephon Castle added 23 points, five rebounds, and five assists. For the Knicks, Jalen Brunson scored 32 points, OG Anunoby had 28, and Karl-Anthony Towns finished with only 11 points and eight rebounds. That Towns number matters because he was one of the best players in Games 1 and 2.
Wembanyama leads the Spurs with 29.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1.7 steals, and 3.3 blocks per game. De’Aaron Fox leads them with 6.0 assists. Brunson leads the Knicks with 27.3 points per game. Towns leads them with 11.0 rebounds. Josh Hart leads them with 5.0 assists.
Injury Report
Knicks
No players listed.
Spurs
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Why The Knicks Have The Advantage
The Knicks have the advantage because they still lead 2-1 and have the better full-series argument. They won Game 1 by 10, Game 2 by one, and lost Game 3 by four. All three games have been decided by 10 points or fewer, the first Finals since 2015 with that pattern through three games. This series is close, but the Knicks have still won more late possessions overall.
The first Game 4 adjustment is Towns. The Spurs changed the matchup in Game 3 by using Castle on Towns and letting Wembanyama roam closer to the rim. That hurt the Knicks’ spacing and made Towns less dangerous off the dribble. Towns had only 11 points after being a major factor earlier in the Finals. The Knicks need him back as a scoring hub, not only a rebounder and spacer.
Brunson also has to balance scoring and ball movement. He scored 32 points in Game 3, but he is averaging 99.7 touches per game in the Finals, 23 more than any other player in the series. His average seconds per touch is 5.57, the highest among normal rotation players in the Finals. The Knicks need Brunson late, but they cannot have every possession become Brunson holding the ball against a set defense.
The Knicks’ biggest correction is control. They had 13 turnovers in Game 3, and the Spurs turned those into 21 points. That was not a huge turnover number, but the damage was high. The Knicks are better when they keep the game in the half-court, get Towns touches, use Hart as a connector, and let Brunson attack after the defense moves.
The Knicks’ recent form is still strong. Over their last 10 games, they are 9-1, averaging 115.6 points, 45.6 rebounds, 26.2 assists, 8.6 steals, and 3.9 blocks while shooting 48.6% from the field. That is better offensive rhythm than the Spurs, who are 5-5 in their last 10 and shooting 43.4% from the field in that span.
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
The Spurs have the advantage because Game 3 gave them their best formula of the Finals. They did not use Wembanyama as a slow creator from the perimeter. They used him as a finisher. He scored four baskets in the first five minutes, all dunks or layups, and finished 8-of-11 from the field. That is the shot profile the Knicks don’t want to defend.
Wembanyama’s 32 points were his best scoring game of the Finals, and the process looked much better. The Spurs got him closer to the rim, used lobs, slips, and quick catches, and stopped asking him to handle too much in traffic. If that continues, the Knicks have to decide between helping early and leaving shooters, or staying home and letting Wembanyama finish over single coverage.
Castle changed the defensive scheme. He guarded Towns, which allowed Wembanyama to spend more time near the rim. Castle also scored 23 points on 8-of-14 shooting and made the biggest three of the game late. That is a huge two-way swing. If Castle can defend Towns without fouling and still score 16-20 points, the Spurs have a real Game 4 path.
The Spurs also cleaned up the ball. They had only eight turnovers in Game 3 and recorded 28 assists. That is much better than the first two games. When they get 28 assists and Wembanyama gets easy finishes, their offense looks much less forced.
The concern is Fox. He made the late shot in Game 3, but he went 4-of-14 from the field. The Spurs cannot depend only on Wembanyama and Castle. Fox has to give more efficient downhill pressure in Game 4. If he stays inefficient, the Knicks can load more bodies toward Wembanyama.
X-Factors
Karl-Anthony Towns is the biggest Knicks X-factor. He averages 11.0 rebounds in the series, but Game 4 is about scoring and decision-making. If Castle guards him again, Towns has to punish the size gap without overdribbling into help. The Knicks need something closer to 18-22 points from him, not another low-volume game.
OG Anunoby has become a key two-way piece. He had 28 points in Game 3 and leads the Knicks with 1.7 blocks per game in the Finals. His shooting and defense matter because the Spurs will keep using Wembanyama as a rim protector. If Anunoby hits open threes and attacks closeouts, the Knicks get cleaner spacing around Brunson.
Stephon Castle is the main Spurs X-factor. His Game 3 line was 23 points, five rebounds, five assists, and only two turnovers. His defense on Towns may be the most important adjustment of the series. If Castle wins that matchup again, the Spurs can keep Wembanyama closer to the rim and protect the paint better.
Devin Vassell has to be more than a floor spacer. He is one of the Spurs’ starting wings, and Game 4 needs more shot-making from him. If the Knicks send help at Wembanyama and Fox, Vassell will get catch-and-shoot chances. The Spurs need efficient points from him because Castle may not repeat 23 points.
Prediction
The Spurs found a real answer in Game 3. Wembanyama as a finisher, Castle on Towns, and better ball movement are all repeatable. That makes Game 4 dangerous for the Knicks.
Still, the Knicks should respond. They are home, they are still up 2-1, and Game 3 was not a full breakdown. It was a four-point loss with too many empty possessions, too much Brunson isolation, and too little Towns scoring. Those are fixable problems.
Prediction: Knicks 110, Spurs 106
