The Trail Blazers host the Knicks at Moda Center on Sunday, Jan. 11 at 3:00 PM PT.
The Trail Blazers enter at 19-20, sitting 9th in the West, while the Knicks come in at 24-14, sitting 2nd in the East.
Last time out, the Trail Blazers beat the Rockets 111-105 to stretch their win streak to five. The Knicks dropped a tight one to the Suns, 112-107.
This is the first meeting of the season between these two, and it’s a fun styles clash. The Trail Blazers have been living on chaos and confidence lately, and the Knicks have been living on shot-making and steady execution.
On the Trail Blazers side, Deni Avdija has been ridiculous at 26.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 7.0 assists this season, and Shaedon Sharpe is right there as the downhill scorer at 21.5 points per game.
For the Knicks, Jalen Brunson has been the engine at 29.0 points and 6.3 assists per game, and Karl-Anthony Towns has been a nightly problem inside at 21.3 points and 11.5 rebounds.
If the Trail Blazers can turn this into a muddy, physical game again, the building’s going to be loud fast. If the Knicks keep it clean, it’s usually curtains.
Injury Report
Trail Blazers
Damian Lillard: Out (left Achilles tendon injury management)
Jerami Grant: Out (left Achilles tendinitis)
Scoot Henderson: Out (left hamstring tear)
Kris Murray: Out (lumbar strain)
Matisse Thybulle: Out (right knee tendinopathy)
Blake Wesley: Out (right foot fracture)
Jrue Holiday: Questionable (right calf strain)
Robert Williams III: Questionable (right knee soreness)
Knicks
Landry Shamet: Out (right shoulder sprain)
Josh Hart: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Guerschon Yabusele: Questionable (right quad contusion)
Why The Trail Blazers Have The Advantage
The first thing is the vibe. They’re on a five-game win streak and they’ve been playing with that “we’re not scared of anybody” edge, especially at home. That matters when you’re the underdog talent-wise, because effort turns into a real weapon.
They also have a very specific path to making this ugly. The Trail Blazers average 27.2 free throw attempts per game and grab 45.3 rebounds, and those are the kinds of stats that let you grind possessions and keep the scoreboard close even if the shooting is shaky.
And the Avdija factor is real. When your lead guy can create shots and create advantages without needing a perfect set, you can survive cold stretches. If the Knicks over-help, Sharpe gets cleaner lanes. If they stay home, Avdija gets to bully-matchup his way into the paint.
Why The Knicks Have The Advantage
The Knicks just score too easily. They’re putting up 119.4 points per game on 47.2% from the field, and they’re also drilling 38.0% from three. That’s a brutal combo against a Trail Blazers defense giving up 118.74 points per game.
The other swing is control. The Knicks only cough it up 13.8 times per game, while the Trail Blazers are at 16.8. If this turns into a half-court game with fewer live-ball mistakes, that favors the team with Brunson running the show.
And if Towns gets the Trail Blazers into foul trouble early, it’s going to snowball. He doesn’t even need to shoot great, he just needs to force rotations and put bigs in tough spots, then Brunson starts cooking against a tilted floor.
X-Factors
Donovan Clingan is a massive swing piece for the Trail Blazers. He’s at 11.1 points and 10.8 rebounds per game, and the whole game changes if he controls the glass and keeps the Knicks off second chances. If he wins his minutes, the Trail Blazers can survive the stretches where the Knicks’ offense usually separates.
Toumani Camara is the other one, because he’s the “do the dirty work and hit enough shots” guy. He’s averaging 12.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.8 assists, and he’s going to see a lot of the toughest defensive assignments on the perimeter. If he makes Brunson work every trip and still gives you double-digit scoring, that’s how the Trail Blazers keep this within one run.
Then there’s Jrue Holiday, if he suits up. He’s at 16.7 points, 8.3 assists, and 5.3 rebounds in his games this season, and his presence would matter immediately because it gives the Trail Blazers another adult ball-handler who can calm the game down when the Knicks blitz Avdija.
For the Knicks, Miles McBride has quietly been a big deal at 12.9 points per game. If he’s hitting pull-up threes and playing with pace, it stops the Trail Blazers from loading up on Brunson every possession.
OG Anunoby is the classic “you feel him more than you see him” guy. He’s at 15.3 points and 5.5 rebounds, and his defense is the type that can cut off Sharpe’s straight-line drives and force Avdija into tougher finishes. If OG is winning those matchups, the Knicks can keep their offense steady without giving up the easy stuff.
And keep an eye on Mitchell Robinson’s impact on the margins. He’s only at 4.5 points, but he’s grabbing 8.8 rebounds a night, and if he controls the rim and the boards, it takes away the Trail Blazers’ “scrap for extra possessions” lifeline.
Prediction
I’m taking the Knicks, but I’m not expecting a comfortable cruise. The Trail Blazers are playing like a team that’s addicted to fourth-quarter drama right now, and Avdija is good enough to drag them through ugly stretches.
The difference for me is the Knicks’ efficiency. When you’ve got Brunson and Towns generating clean looks all night, you can survive a loud building and a hot streak on the other side.
Prediction: Knicks 121, Trail Blazers 116
