The Oklahoma City Thunder host the San Antonio Spurs at Paycom Center on Tuesday, January 13 at 8:00 PM ET.
The Thunder come in at 33-7 (1st in the West), while the Spurs sit at 27-12 (2nd in the West).
The Spurs last played the Timberwolves and lost 104-103. The Thunder’s last game was a 124-112 win over the Heat.
And here’s the spicy part: the Spurs have had the Thunder in a headlock this season, going 3-0 in the series already, including that 117-102 Christmas win.
Victor Wembanyama is putting up 24.3 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game. De’Aaron Fox is at 20.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 5.8 assists.
On the other side, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is rolling with 31.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 6.4 assists on 54.7% from the field and 39.6% from three. Chet Holmgren adds 18.1 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks.
This one matters because the Thunder are elite at home (19-2), but the Spurs already handed them one of those rare home Ls.
Injury Report
Thunder
Isaiah Hartenstein: Out (right soleus strain)
Thomas Sorber: Out (right ACL surgical recovery)
Nikola Topic: Out (surgical recovery)
Spurs
Devin Vassell: Out (left adductor strain)
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
They defend like psychos. The Thunder own the best defensive rating in the league at 106.9, and they’re allowing just 108.4 points per game. That’s the foundation.
Offensively, they’re still a problem even when things get messy. They’re scoring 121.4 points per game on 48.9% from the field, and when they ramp up the pressure they basically turn games into chaos. They force a ton of mistakes, creating 18.27 opponent turnovers per game.
And yeah, the home thing is real. 19-2 at home is a ridiculous baseline, and the Spurs stealing games in this matchup doesn’t suddenly erase that reality.
If the Thunder win tonight, it’s because they finally clean up the live-ball giveaways and stop letting the Spurs dictate the physicality. This is the kind of “enough already” spot where contenders usually punch back.
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
The Spurs can match firepower, and that’s why this matchup keeps flipping. They’re scoring 118.1 points per game, shooting 47.3% from the field and 34.6% from three, with 46.8 rebounds and 25.6 assists per night. That’s not a cute little hot stretch, that’s a real profile.
But the biggest advantage is the one that doesn’t show up as one stat: Wembanyama warps everything. He’s at 24.3 points and 11.1 rebounds, and the 2.8 blocks are the loud part, but the real damage is what he removes. Layups disappear, floaters get rushed, and the Thunder’s paint rhythm gets weird fast.
Also, this season series isn’t a fluke anymore. Three wins is three wins, and one of them was a 15-point Christmas statement. The Spurs clearly found a formula that bothers this Thunder roster, especially with size and shot deterrence anchoring everything.
If the Spurs win again, it’s because they turn it into a half-court game late, keep the ball, and let Wembanyama be the cheat code at the rim while Fox/ Castle control tempo.
X-Factors
Stephon Castle is the swing piece for the Spurs. He’s at 17.2 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 6.8 assists, and when he plays downhill the Spurs feel bigger and faster at the same time. If he forces the Thunder to rotate early, the Spurs’ shooters get the exact looks they want.
Julian Champagnie has to hit the “boring” shots. He’s posting 11.2 points and 6.2 rebounds, and his role is simple: punish help, rebound his position, and make the Thunder pay for loading up on Wembanyama.
Harrison Barnes is another quiet one. He’s at 11.5 points on 37.3% from three, and if he hits early corner threes it changes what the Thunder can do with their help defenders.
For the Thunder, Cason Wallace is the tone-setter. He’s only at 7.3 points, but the 2.1 steals per game tell you why he matters. If he turns this into a deflections game, the Thunder’s transition machine shows up.
Isaiah Joe is the spacing grenade. He’s hitting 39.9% from three and scoring 9.7 points in under 20 minutes. If he gets loose for a couple quick threes, the Spurs’ whole “shrink the floor” plan gets stretched thin.
And keep an eye on Lu Dort. His scoring is down (8.2 points), but he’s still a physical, annoying matchup piece. If he can make Fox uncomfortable without sending him to the line, the Thunder finally tilt the possession battle their way.
Prediction
I’m taking the Thunder at home to finally snap the spell. The Spurs have earned the confidence, but 3-0 is exactly why I expect a full locked-in response, especially with the Thunder’s defense and home dominance screaming “bounce-back spot.”
Prediction: Thunder 120, Spurs 115
