The Trail Blazers host the Kings at Moda Center on Sunday at 8:30 p.m. ET in the final game of the regular season.
The Trail Blazers are 41-40 and still have something real to chase. A win secures the No. 8 spot in the West. The Kings are 22-59 and come in with nothing left in the standings. The Trail Blazers are 23-17 at home, while the Kings are 7-33 on the road.
The Trail Blazers are coming off a 116-97 win over the Clippers. The Kings beat the Warriors 124-118 on Friday. The season series is 3-0 for the Blazers, so this is the fourth and last meeting.
There is also a clear difference in context. The Blazers can close the season at .500 and lock in eighth with one more win. The Kings are already a team playing out the schedule with a very short rotation and a heavy injury list. That does not mean the game will be easy. It does mean the pressure, urgency, and lineup quality all lean toward the home side.
Deni Avdija is the main name in this matchup. He is averaging 24.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 6.6 assists, and he has already had a 30-point game in this season series. Donovan Clingan gives the Blazers 12.1 points and 11.6 rebounds and has also been strong against the Kings.
For the Kings, Maxime Raynaud has averaged 12.3 points and 7.5 rebounds on the season, but his numbers against the Blazers are better at 17.3 points and 10.3 rebounds in three games. Devin Carter is at 8.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.5 assists and is coming off a 29-point game against the Warriors.
Injury Report
Trail Blazers
Jerami Grant: Out (right calf strain)
Damian Lillard: Out (left Achilles tendon injury management)
Vit Krejci: Questionable (left calf contusion)
Matisse Thybulle: Probable (right ankle sprain)
Kings
DeMar DeRozan: Out (right hamstring strain)
Drew Eubanks: Out (left thumb UCL repair)
De’Andre Hunter: Out (left eye retinal repair)
Zach LaVine: Out (right 5th finger tendon repair)
Malik Monk: Out (personal reasons)
Keegan Murray: Out (left ankle sprain)
Domantas Sabonis: Out (left knee meniscus repair)
Isaiah Stevens: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Russell Westbrook: Out (right toe injury management)
Why The Trail Blazers Have The Advantage
The first edge is the obvious one. The Blazers are playing for something tangible. This is not a tune-up game. This is a game that can move them into eighth. That means their best players should get a normal workload, and the energy in the building should look different from a typical last-day game. The Kings do not have that same reason to push.
The second edge is the series itself. The Blazers are 3-0 against the Kings this season. They won the first meeting 134-133 in overtime, the second 98-93, and the third 117-110. None of those games was a blowout, but the pattern is still clear. The Blazers have had the better late-game answers, and Avdija has been the biggest reason. He scored 35 in one meeting and 30 in another. Clingan has controlled the glass in this matchup, too.
The team numbers also support the home side. The Blazers average 115.4 points per game, compared with 111.0 for the Kings. They rebound better at 46.0 per game versus 42.2. They also protect the rim better, with 5.49 blocks per game compared with 4.49 for the Kings.
Neither team is strong from three, but the Blazers have been better on the glass and more stable inside, which becomes even more important against a Kings team missing DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Malik Monk, and Domantas Sabonis.
Why The Kings Have The Advantage
The Kings do have one clear path. They take care of the ball better. The Blazers average 17.3 turnovers per game. The Kings are at 14.3. That is a big gap. If the Kings can keep this game in the half-court and force the Blazers into mistakes, they can create enough extra possessions to stay close. That is the cleanest way for them to offset the talent gap in the available lineups.
There is also some recent confidence on the Kings’ side. They just beat the Warriors 124-118, and that win came from real production by young players, not one random hot quarter. Carter scored 29. Raynaud had 23 points and nine rebounds. Nique Clifford added 20 points, six rebounds, and six assists. For a team this short-handed, that kind of output matters. It gives the Kings at least a workable offensive model for one more game.
Raynaud is the most important matchup piece for the Kings. His season numbers are solid, but his three games against the Trail Blazers have been better than that. He has consistently scored inside and held his own on the glass. If he gives the Kings another efficient 18 to 20 points and stays competitive against Clingan, the game can stay tight well into the second half.
X-Factors
Toumani Camara is a big x-factor for the Trail Blazers. He is averaging 13.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 2.5 assists, and his recent form has been strong. He also gives the Blazers their best wing defense, which matters against a Kings team that now depends on young guards and wings to create a lot of its offense. If Camara turns this into a physical game and wins his defensive assignments, the Trail Blazers should control the tempo.
Jrue Holiday is the other one for the Blazers. He is averaging 16.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 6.1 assists. This game may not require a huge scoring night from him. It may require calm offense, good decisions, and clean late-clock possessions. Holiday gives the Trail Blazers that. In a game with real seeding value, that kind of guard play is a major edge.
For the Kings, Devin Carter is the first swing piece. His full-season numbers are modest, but the 29-point game against the Warriors showed what happens when he gets more usage and sees the floor clearly. The Kings need him to attack early, get into the paint, and force the Trail Blazers to defend him as a scorer instead of just a secondary guard.
Maxime Raynaud is the second one. He has been the most reliable interior scorer available for the Kings late in the season, and his work in this season series is hard to ignore. If he finishes plays around the rim and keeps the Kings alive on the glass, the game can stay competitive. If he gets pushed off his spots, the Kings will have a hard time generating enough half-court offense.
Prediction
The Trail Blazers are in the better spot, with the better available players, at home, in a game that still has clear value for them. They have already beaten the Kings three times this season, and the matchup still points the same way. The Kings can make this annoying if Carter and Raynaud play well and if the Trail Blazers get careless with the ball. But the cleaner read is the home team with the better structure and the bigger reason to win.
Prediction: Trail Blazers 117, Kings 108
