Predicting The Next 10 NBA Scoring Champions

For those who are turning 30 years old, you grew up watching Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Stephen Curry dominate the league in scoring. While Iverson and Bryant are no longer in the league, James, Durant, and Curry are in their mid-30s but have plenty to show as they enter the next phase of their career. Winning a scoring title may not be on their mind these days as all of them are trying to chase down a championship.

Some intriguing prospects could take over this decade as the top scorers in the league. We have already seen Curry and Joel Embiid win a scoring title in the 2020s. With some young talent heading towards their mid-20s while others are approaching their late 20s or early 30s, there are plenty of faces that could look to contend for the next scoring title. The question is going to be who?

For the next 10 seasons, these are our predictions for the next 10 scoring champions.

2022-23 Scoring Leader – Kevin Durant

The last two seasons of Durant with the Nets have been a whopping “what if?” Durant was forced to miss the 2019-2020 season due to an injury he sustained while playing in the 2019 NBA Finals. After he came back, he missed the following season due to injuries and was limited to 35 games. In those games, he averaged 26.9 points per game and then had the Nets within a game of making the Conference Finals the playoffs.

Last season, Durant played 55 games but was limited at times again. Durant looked like he was going to win the scoring title at the beginning of the season, but he ultimately finished the year with 29.9 points per game, which was his highest scoring average since he averaged 32.0 points per game in 2013-14. Ironically enough, that was the last time he won a scoring championship. If Durant plays next season, he should be considered the top candidate to win the fifth scoring title of his career next season. He will do it by averaging 32.0 points per game.

2023-24 Scoring Leader – Joel Embiid

For the first time in his career, Embiid averaged over 30 points per game for the course of a season. That allowed Embiid to win the first scoring title of his career last season. His 30.6 points per game was a new career-high, and he did it while shooting 49.9% from the field with a 37.1% clip from three-point range. By this season, Embiid will continue to be in his prime and will be 30 years old. There is no reason he won’t contend for this scoring title, as well as during the 2022-23 season.

What stands out about this season is the uncertainty of James Harden’s future. Harden’s contract is guaranteed with Philadelphia next season only. He has a player’s option for 2023-24. If Harden does not pick that up, it will leave Embiid to roam free again. Remember, he played half of the season without Ben Simmons, who was eventually traded for Harden. If we see Harden disappear and leave Embiid by himself, Embiid could look to chase down his second scoring title. Embiid will accomplish this by averaging 32.5 points per game.

2024-25 Scoring Leader – Giannis Antetokounmpo

Similar to Embiid, Antetokounmpo will be pressing 30 years old and could continue the trend of pounding the ball inside. During this season, he will be 30 years old and could be looking to average his first season of 30 points per game or more. Antetokounmpo came in second place during the scoring chase during the 2021-22 season and averaged 29.9 points per game.

Consistently, Antetokounmpo has put up solid numbers over the last five seasons. His last five averages are 26.9, 27.7, 29.5, 28.1, and 29.9 points per game. If he doesn’t average 30 points or more before this season, this would have to be the year he would do it. Antetokounmpo has a lot of awards such as MVP, Finals MVP, and All-Star, but he has yet to win a scoring title. To win, he will average 30.1 points per game in a lower-scoring year in the league.

2025-26 Scoring Leader – Luka Doncic

Four years from now, Doncic will be 27 years old and will be without a scoring title. At 23 years old, he has already averaged 28.8, 27.7, and 28.4 points per game in the last three seasons. He has never averaged less than 20.0 points per game in the four years of being in the NBA. With seven years of experience by this point, Doncic would be in a prime position to take his game to the next level.

There has to be something said about the idea of chasing the greatness of Dirk Nowitzki. Assuming Doncic is still playing with the Mavericks at this point, he will be looking to accomplish some recognition that hasn’t been done since Nowitzki. The last time a Maverick won a scoring title was Nowitzki. On top of that, the highest points per game average for a single season for the Mavericks was Mark Aguirre at 29.5 points per game. Doncic has been close and could continue to be close the following three years before he finally sets the new record at 30.3 points per game.

2026-27 Scoring Leader – Trae Young

The year could be wrong, but make no mistake that Young will win a scoring title at some point in his career. The last three seasons have seen Young display a similar talent to Doncic, who was drafted in the same class as him. Young has averaged 29.6, 25.3, and 28.4 points per game in the last three seasons. At some point, he is going to score over 30 per game. In some of the years before this season, it may not be enough.

Both Doncic and Young are likely the two players that have the best chance to average the highest single-season total since James Harden averaged 36.1 points per game during the 2018-19 season. That year saw Harden win the league MVP Award. It could potentially be an MVP season for Young, which would be the team’s first MVP winner since Bob Pettit won in 1959. He will defeat Pettit’s best average of his career with 31.2 points per game.

2027-28 Scoring Leader – Jayson Tatum

Sometimes, we forget that Jayson Tatum is only 24 years old. By this season, Tatum will be 30 years old and hypothetically will have played 11 seasons with the Celtics. If Tatum hasn’t won a scoring title by now, this will be the year after he pushes past the likes of Doncic and Young. Tatum has a skill set that reminds us of Kevin Durant at times. However, we have not seen the consistency of that level right now.

By this time, Tatum will have been in the mix for many scoring titles but had fallen short of winning each time. Tatum will have leaped similarly to Bradley Beal. In Beal’s ninth season, he averaged 31.3 points per game and nearly won the scoring title. In this case, Tatum will go further and average what Durant averaged in 2013-14, which was 32.0 points per game, to clinch his first scoring title.

2028-29 Scoring Leader – Ja Morant

While many will call this reaching, don’t forget that Russell Westbrook won a scoring title once. It was Westbrook’s ninth season in the league. It was the first time that a player averaged a triple-double for a season since Oscar Robertson. Westbrook led the league in scoring with 31.6 points per game, along with 10.7 rebounds and 10.4 assists.

This is not a plea saying Morant will average a triple-double; although he owns similar stats to the early stretch of his career as Westbrook. What it means is that Morant has the athletic ability like Westbrook that could see him play a similar game. He is not a great three-point shooter, but he can get downhill and finish around the rim. By this season, Morant will be 29 years old heading into his 10th season in the league, where he will average 30.8 points per game.

2029-30 Scoring Leader – Devin Booker

Eight years from now, Devin Booker will be 32 years old and likely still playing at a superstar level. At this time, there will be critics saying that we should have never compared Booker to Kobe Bryant. After being a long-tenured veteran of the league, that motivation will be enough for Booker to outplay everyone this season. Bryant won scoring titles at 27 and 28 years old. Booker will want to prove the naysayers wrong and will be a little late to the party, but will have the best season of his career.

Booker has averaged at least 26.0 points per game in three of the four following seasons. He will be 26 years old for the 2022-23 season. We could see him take the jump earlier. As noted, there is a deep range of dominant scorers, who will break out before him. Booker will win a title as a “late-bloomer” as we watch in awe at how far his shooting has come as his 31.9 points per game win the title.

2030-31 Scoring Leader – Luka Doncic

Between Booker, Tatum, Doncic, Morant, and all of the other prospects taking over the league, Doncic will be a true face of the NBA. He will be an older veteran that young defenders rise to face. By now, Doncic will have already set a new single-season scoring record for the Mavericks. It will be a matter of how far he can pad his lead.

By now, Doncic will probably be trailing Nowitzki’s all-time points record by 5,000 points. He will not break the record this season, but he will get himself closer. It will be the fifth time in six seasons that Doncic scored at least 2,000 points in a season. This will feature an amazing season where Doncic averages 35.8 points per game.

2031-32 Scoring Leader – Ja Morant

Morant will battle off the likes of Jayson Tatum, Devin Booker, and Luka Doncic to win his second title. Ten years from now, Morant will have molded his game to have more of an outside shooting presence. His body will not be able to handle the wear and tear of driving to the basket and falling on the floor. With that said, he will remain one of the most lethal players driving to the basket. He will have a three-point shot to go with it.

Morant will confirm that he should have been taken with the No. 1 overall pick. Zion Williamson will have zero scoring titles to his credit, while Morant continues to take over the league as a fan favorite by winning the title with 31.5 points per game. He will continue his Hall of Fame resume and confirm he is the greatest Grizzlies player in team history.

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