Game 7 is at Paycom Center on Saturday, May 30, at 8:00 p.m. ET. The Thunder and Spurs are tied 3-3. One game decides the Western Conference Finals. The winner gets the Knicks in the NBA Finals. The loser is done.
The Spurs forced Game 7 with a 118-91 win in Game 6. It was not close. They led wire-to-wire, won the third quarter 32-13, and held the Thunder to 35-of-94 shooting, which is 37.2% from the field. Victor Wembanyama had 28 points, 10 rebounds, three blocks, two steals, and four made threes. Stephon Castle added 17 points, five rebounds, and nine assists. Dylan Harper gave them 18 points in 22 minutes.
The Thunder were bad in Game 6. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had only 15 points on 6-of-18 shooting. Chet Holmgren had 10 points, 11 rebounds, and two blocks, but the Thunder had only one field goal in the final 8:23 of the third quarter. That was the game.
Injury Report
Thunder
Jalen Williams: Out (left hamstring injury)
Ajay Mitchell: Out (right soleus strain)
Thomas Sorber: Out For Season (right ACL surgical recovery)
Spurs
No injuries reported.
Jalen Williams is out after playing only 10 minutes in Game 6. He finished with one point, two turnovers, and a minus-18 rating. He had aggravated the left hamstring injury in Game 2 and missed three straight games before trying to return.
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
The Thunder still have home court and the best guard in the series. Gilgeous-Alexander was poor in Game 6, but he is not likely to shoot 6-of-18 again. He had 32 points in Game 5, went 16-of-17 at the line, and gave the Thunder a 3-2 lead before the Spurs responded. Game 7 has to start with more rim pressure from him and fewer slow possessions against Wembanyama.
The Thunder also have the deeper bench, even with Williams and Mitchell out. Alex Caruso has already had a 31-point game in this series. Jared McCain had 24 points in Game 3. Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, and Isaiah Hartenstein have all had useful stretches. The Spurs have the best individual player in Wembanyama, but the Thunder still have more playable perimeter depth.
The big correction is pace. Game 6 became too slow for the Thunder after the first quarter. They let the Spurs set their half-court defense, and that allowed Wembanyama to stay near the action. The Thunder need early offense, drag screens, and more quick touches for Holmgren before Wembanyama can load up.
Hartenstein also has to stay on the floor. When he gives the Thunder size, screening, and rebounding, Holmgren can play more in space. That helps against Wembanyama. If the Thunder play too small, Wembanyama can control the glass and force help every trip.
The Thunder have one more edge: Game 7 pressure at home. They have already won three games in this series, and two of them came after the Spurs looked like they had a real answer. Game 7 should be about force and shot quality. If Gilgeous-Alexander controls the middle and the role players hit enough threes, the Thunder can survive without Williams.
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
The Spurs have the best matchup weapon. Wembanyama has changed every game they won. Game 1 was 41 points and 24 rebounds. Game 6 was 28 points, 10 rebounds, three blocks, two steals, and four threes in only 28 minutes. When he scores early and protects the rim, the Thunder offense loses its normal rhythm.
The Game 7 plan is simple. Get Wembanyama touches early. Not only threes. Not only late-clock post-ups. The Spurs need elbow touches, seals, rolls, and transition looks. If the Thunder can force him into slow catches 25 feet from the rim, they are fine. If he catches near the nail or deep in the paint, the whole defense bends.
Castle is another major advantage. He has had eight games of at least 15 points, five rebounds, and five assists in this postseason. Only Magic Johnson and Larry Bird had more in one postseason among rookies or sophomores. That is strong company. He is not only producing numbers. He is defending, passing, and giving the Spurs a second main organizer.
Harper is the other swing. He was huge in Game 1 and looked closer to his best in Game 6. His 18 points in 22 minutes gave the Spurs the extra guard scoring they missed during parts of the series. If Harper gives them 14-18 points again, the Spurs don’t need Fox to carry every non-Wembanyama possession.
The Spurs also have the cleaner injury report. Fox, Harper, Castle, Vassell, Kornet, and Wembanyama are not listed. The Thunder are missing Williams and Mitchell. That reduces their creation and puts more weight on Gilgeous-Alexander, Caruso, McCain, and Wallace.
X-Factors
Chet Holmgren is the Thunder’s biggest X-factor. He had 10 points and 11 rebounds in Game 6, but that is not enough. The Thunder need 16-20 points from him, plus enough spacing to pull Wembanyama away from the rim. If Holmgren is passive, the Spurs can keep Wembanyama in the paint and shrink the floor.
Alex Caruso has to hit shots again. His 31-point game showed how much he can change the series when the Spurs leave him space. Without Williams and Mitchell, the Thunder need more offense from Caruso, not only defense. A 10-point game is useful. A 16-18 point game can swing Game 7.
Dylan Harper is a huge Spurs X-factor. He had 24 points, 11 rebounds, six assists, and seven steals in Game 1, then had injury issues later in the series. Game 6 was better: 18 points in 22 minutes. If Harper looks explosive, the Spurs have enough guard scoring to win on the road.
Devin Vassell also has to make shots. The Thunder will send extra attention to Wembanyama. Vassell has to punish weak-side help. The Spurs don’t need him to dominate, but they need 15-18 points and strong defense on Thunder guards.
Isaiah Hartenstein is another Thunder X-factor. His size helps against Wembanyama and gives the Thunder a better rebounding base. If Hartenstein gets in foul trouble, the Thunder have to play smaller, and that is dangerous against the Spurs’ frontcourt.
Prediction
The Spurs have the best player in the game and a healthier roster. Wembanyama can win Game 7 if he controls the paint and scores early. Castle and Harper also give them enough guard size to make this close.
Still, the Thunder are at home, and Gilgeous-Alexander should respond after a bad Game 6. The Williams injury hurts, but the Thunder have more bench shooting and more guards who can survive playoff minutes. Game 7 should be tight late, but I trust SGA’s shot creation and the Thunder’s home floor more.
Prediction: Thunder 112, Spurs 107
