The San Antonio Spurs host the Minnesota Timberwolves at Frost Bank Center on Saturday, January 17 at 8:00 PM ET.
The Timberwolves come in at 27-15 as the 4-seed, while the Spurs sit at 28-13 as the 2-seed in the West.
The Spurs just smoked the Bucks 119-101 in their last one, while the Timberwolves dropped a tough one to the Rockets, 110-105.
This is the third and final meeting of the season, and the Timberwolves have taken the first two, 125-112 and 104-103.
For the Timberwolves, it starts with Anthony Edwards (28.7 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.7 assists) and Julius Randle (22.6 points, 7.0 rebounds, 5.6 assists).
For the Spurs, it’s Victor Wembanyama (23.9 points, 10.9 rebounds) and De’Aaron Fox (20.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, 5.8 assists).
This one matters because it’s basically a “prove it” night for the Spurs, losing twice to the same team stings, and the Timberwolves know a sweep would be a loud statement.
Injury Report
Spurs
Devin Vassell: Out (left adductor strain)
Stephon Castle: Questionable (illness)
Timberwolves
Joe Ingles: Out (personal reasons)
Terrence Shannon Jr.: Out (left foot abductor hallucis strain)
Rudy Gobert: Questionable (left hip contusion)
Anthony Edwards: Available (right foot injury maintenance)
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
The Spurs are built to win the “math” parts of games. They rebound better (46.8 to 44.8), they block more shots, and they’ve been the steadier defense on the season, allowing 112.5 points per game compared to 114.5 for the Timberwolves.
And the big one: The Timberwolves might not have Rudy Gobert at full strength. If he’s limited or out, that changes everything about how the Timberwolves defend the rim and finish possessions, which is exactly where Wembanyama lives.
I also like the Spurs’ ability to keep their offense organized. They’re at 25.6 assists per game with just 14.0 turnovers, so they can actually get to their spots without donating points.
Why The Timberwolves Have The Advantage
Their offense has been nasty all year. They’re scoring 120.0 points per game on 48.6% from the field, and when they’re rolling, they can bury teams in quick runs because the shot quality is consistent.
They also shoot it better than the Spurs from deep, and that’s a real swing in a matchup where both sides want to control the paint. If the Timberwolves hit early threes, it forces the Spurs to stretch out, and that’s when Edwards and Randle start bullying the gaps.
Plus, they’ve already proven they can win this matchup in two different ways, a comfortable win (125-112) and a grind-it-out one-possession win (104-103).
X-Factors
Stephon Castle is the temperature check for the Spurs. He’s putting up 17.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 6.9 assists, and if he’s available and aggressive, the Spurs get a second downhill creator next to Fox instead of leaning on Wembanyama bailouts.
Dylan Harper is the wildcard. He’s at 10.5 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists, and his value is simple in this one: don’t let the Spurs’ bench minutes turn into chaos. If he keeps it clean and hits a couple shots, the Spurs can survive non-Fox stretches.
Julian Champagnie matters more than people admit. He’s giving them 11.3 points and 6.3 rebounds, and against a team that plays big and physical, his rebounding and spot-up shooting can swing two or three possessions that decide the game.
For the Timberwolves, Jaden McDaniels is the guy who can wreck the night without “star” numbers. He’s at 14.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.7 assists, and if he makes Edwards’ life easier by defending, cutting, and hitting corner threes, the offense feels way less predictable.
Rudy Gobert is obvious but still the pivot point. He’s at 11.0 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 1.8 assists, and if he plays, their whole identity shows up, finish possessions, own the glass, and erase mistakes at the rim. If he doesn’t, the Timberwolves have to win a different kind of game.
Bones Hyland is the sneaky one. He’s only at 6.7 points, 1.4 rebounds, and 2.6 assists, but if he gives a quick 8-10 off the bench, it changes how the Spurs can load up on Edwards and Randle late.
Prediction
I’m taking the Spurs at home. Minnesota has owned the season series, but the Spurs’ defensive profile and rebounding edge plays in this matchup, and the Gobert situation is a massive lever.
Prediction: Spurs 118, Timberwolves 112
