This series looked close to finished a week ago. The Cavaliers took the first two games at Rocket Arena, had the better shot-making, and seemed to have the Raptors stuck without Immanuel Quickley. Now it is 2-2, and Game 5 feels much more dangerous than the seed line suggests. The No. 4 seed Cavaliers host the No. 5 seed Raptors on Wednesday, April 29, at 7:30 p.m. ET, with the winner taking control of the first round.
Donovan Mitchell is averaging 24.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.8 assists in the series, but the last two games have been harder. James Harden is at 21.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 6.5 assists, though his 24 turnovers through four games are now a major issue. For the Raptors, Scottie Barnes has been the best player in the matchup at 25.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 7.3 assists, while RJ Barrett is adding 24.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 3.5 assists.
Game 4 was a rock fight, and the Raptors liked it that way. They won 93-89 despite shooting 32.0% from the field and 4-of-30 from three. Barnes and Brandon Ingram scored 23 points each, Barrett added 18, and Collin Murray-Boyles had 15 points and 10 rebounds. The Cavaliers shot only 36.8%, went 10-of-40 from three, and got a combined 39 points from Mitchell and Harden on 12-of-38 shooting.
Injury Report
Cavaliers
No players listed.
Raptors
Immanuel Quickley: Out (right hamstring strain)
Why The Cavaliers Have The Advantage
The Cavaliers still have the cleaner high-end shot creation. Mitchell and Harden have not played well enough in the last two games, but they already showed in Games 1 and 2 that they can control this matchup when the pick-and-roll is working. Mitchell scored 32 in Game 1 and 30 in Game 2. Harden had 22 points and 10 assists in Game 1, then 28 points in Game 2. The Cavaliers won both because their guards got downhill and forced the Raptors into rotations.
The Game 5 adjustment is about getting back to Jarrett Allen as a real pressure point. The Raptors have used Barrett on Allen to switch more actions and cut off the Harden-Allen pick-and-roll. That worked in Game 4, when Allen had only three points on five shots despite grabbing 15 rebounds. The Cavaliers cannot let that mismatch sit there without punishment. They need post touches, seals, rolls, and early entries before the Raptors can load help.
Mitchell also has to attack the rim better. In Game 4, he took 24 shots but went just 2-of-10 in the paint and missed all four of his restricted-area attempts, according to Fear The Sword’s breakdown. That is exactly what the Raptors want. If Mitchell is living on pull-up threes and floaters, the Cavaliers’ offense becomes too volatile.
Why The Raptors Have The Advantage
The Raptors have flipped the series because their defensive adjustment is real. They moved Barnes onto Harden, used Ja’Kobe Walter on Mitchell, and put Barrett on Allen. That gives them more switchable coverage against the Cavaliers’ guard-big actions and makes it harder for Harden or Mitchell to create a clean advantage with one screen. SB Nation also noted that the Raptors’ gap help has clogged driving lanes and forced the Cavaliers into less comfortable perimeter shots.
The other edge is physicality. In Game 4, the Raptors won points in the paint 50-38 and second-chance points 19-7. They also grabbed 21 offensive rebounds. That is not normal for a game where they shot that poorly. It shows they can survive bad shooting if they keep winning the possession battle.
Barnes is also playing like the best two-way player in the series. He had 33 points and 11 assists in Game 3, then followed with 23 points, nine rebounds, six assists, three blocks, and 14 free-throw attempts in Game 4. If he keeps defending Harden and creating offense without forcing shots, the Raptors have a real chance to steal Game 5.
X-Factors
Evan Mobley has to be more involved. He is averaging 16.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.0 assists in the series, but Game 4 was too quiet: eight points on 4-of-11 shooting. The Cavaliers need Mobley as a connector and short-roll passer when the Raptors take away the first action. If he is passive, the offense becomes too guard-heavy.
Sam Merrill is the Cavaliers’ cleanest spacing X-factor. He had 14 points in Game 4 on 5-of-9 shooting and 3-of-7 from three, while several other Cavaliers shooters struggled. If the Raptors keep crowding Mitchell and Harden, Merrill has to punish the extra help.
Murray-Boyles has changed the series for the Raptors. He is averaging 17.0 points and 7.3 rebounds while shooting 29-of-44 from the field. In Game 4, he had 15 points, 10 rebounds, three assists, and five offensive rebounds. His energy has given the Raptors a frontcourt weapon the Cavaliers have not fully handled.
Ja’Kobe Walter is not giving the Raptors offense, but his defense matters. He shot 0-of-9 in Game 4, including 0-of-8 from three, yet he still played 27 minutes because of his length on Mitchell. The Raptors cannot survive another zero-point game from him easily, but if his defense holds and someone else hits shots, his minutes still make sense.
Prediction
The Raptors have made this series uncomfortable because their adjustment is smart and their physical edge is real. Still, Game 5 is where the Cavaliers should answer. They are back at Rocket Arena, they have no injury issues, and Mitchell and Harden are unlikely to be that inefficient again. The key is Allen. If the Cavaliers finally punish the Barrett matchup and get more rim pressure, they should regain control.
Prediction: Cavaliers 112, Raptors 104
