The Grizzlies host the Cavaliers at FedExForum on Monday, April 6, at 8:00 PM ET. The Grizzlies are 25-53 and out of the top 10 in the West. The Cavaliers are 49-29 and fourth in the East. The Grizzlies are 13-26 at home, and the Cavaliers are 24-15 on the road.
The Grizzlies are coming off a 131-115 loss to the Bucks. The Cavaliers are coming off a 117-108 win over the Pacers. The Cavaliers also lead the season series 1-0 after a 108-100 win in the first meeting.
For the Grizzlies, Cedric Coward has given them 13.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 2.8 assists, while GG Jackson is at 12.5 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 1.4 assists.
For the Cavaliers, Evan Mobley is putting up 18.1 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 3.6 assists, while Jarrett Allen is at 15.4 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.8 assists.
The bigger story is the Cavaliers’ injury report. Donovan Mitchell and James Harden are both out, so this becomes a very different game than it looked 24 hours ago.
Injury Report
Grizzlies
Santi Aldama: Out (right knee surgery recovery)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: Out (right 5th finger surgery recovery)
Brandon Clarke: Out (right calf strain)
Zach Edey: Out (left ankle and elbow surgery recovery)
Ty Jerome: Out (left ankle sprain)
Jahmai Mashack: Out (concussion protocol)
Ja Morant: Out (left elbow UCL sprain)
Scotty Pippen Jr.: Out (right great toe surgery recovery)
Javon Small: Out (left thigh contusion)
Jaylen Wells: Out (right great toe surgery recovery)
Taj Gibson: Doubtful (right foot injury management)
Taylor Hendricks: Doubtful (right thumb sprain)
Cavaliers
James Harden: Out (personal reasons)
Donovan Mitchell: Out (left ankle sprain)
Thomas Bryant: Out (left calf strain)
Max Strus: Out (left foot injury management)
Jaylon Tyson: Out (left great toe bone bruise)
Dean Wade: Out (right ankle sprain)
Why The Grizzlies Have The Advantage
The Grizzlies have one obvious opening, and it starts with the Cavaliers’ missing firepower. Mitchell is out. Harden is out. Strus is out, too. That is a huge amount of shot creation and half-court control gone from one team. If the Grizzlies can force this into a messy game, the talent gap gets much smaller than the season numbers suggest.
Their style can help with that. The Grizzlies play at a 101.1 pace, which ranks seventh in the league. They are also top 10 in assists and eighth in steals at 8.9 per game. If they speed the game up, jump passing lanes, and turn this into a transition game, they can make the Cavaliers play outside their comfort zone.
There is also a real three-point volume case. The Grizzlies take 38.9 threes per game and make 13.7. The Cavaliers defend well enough in long stretches, but when they are short on perimeter creation, the easiest way to steal a game is to win the variance battle. If the Grizzlies get a good shooting night from Coward, Jackson, and the young guards, they can stay attached much longer than expected.
The last point is simple. The Grizzlies have no pressure in the standings, and the young group is getting real chances. Rupert just posted a 33-point triple-double against the Bucks, and Walter Clayton Jr. had 20 in the same game. The Cavaliers have more structure. The Grizzlies have more freedom right now. In a game where the road team is missing its two best guards, that matters.
Why The Cavaliers Have The Advantage
The full-season profile still favors the Cavaliers. They score 119.3 points per game, allow 115.1, shoot 48.0% from the field, and own a 119.0 offensive rating, which ranks sixth in the league. The Grizzlies are at 114.8 points per game, 119.7 allowed, and a 113.3 offensive rating. Even with the injury report, the cleaner team on paper is still the Cavaliers.
The Cavaliers also move the ball and finish possessions better. They average 28.3 assists per game, which ranks eighth, and they turn it over only 13.9 times per game, which is top 10 in the league. The Grizzlies are close in assists at 28.2, but they give it away 15.2 times per game. That gap matters more now because the Cavaliers do not have Mitchell and Harden. They cannot waste trips.
The other clear edge is inside. Mobley and Allen should control this matchup if they are both available. The Cavaliers average 44.3 rebounds per game, while the Grizzlies are at 42.3. The Grizzlies also give up one of the higher opponent rebounding numbers in the league. Against a roster this thin, second-chance points and paint scoring are the simplest way for the Cavaliers to get through a road game without their star guards.
There is also the recent form. The Cavaliers are 8-2 in their last 10. The Grizzlies are 1-9 in that stretch and have lost 17 of their last 19 overall. That is not noise anymore. Even with the Cavaliers missing major creators, the baseline on this matchup still points one way because the Grizzlies have not been able to hold up for four quarters.
X-Factors
Walter Clayton Jr. matters for the Grizzlies because he gives them guard play they can still trust. He is at 7.7 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists this season. In this matchup, the Grizzlies need someone who can keep the ball moving and make quick reads before the Cavaliers set the defense.
Olivier-Maxence Prosper is another real swing piece. He has produced 9.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.0 assists this season. The Grizzlies need his size, straight-line driving, and energy on the wing because they do not have much margin left in the rotation. If Prosper gives them solid minutes on both ends, the Grizzlies can at least make the Cavaliers work.
Dennis Schroder is a big one for the Cavaliers because the offense now needs a real organizer. Schroder has put up 10.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 4.8 assists this season. Without Mitchell and Harden, the Cavaliers need him to settle the game, get Mobley and Allen touches in the right spots, and keep the ball from sticking. If he does that, the Cavaliers should still get enough decent shots.
Keon Ellis is the other important Cavaliers piece. He has given them 8.3 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 1.4 assists in 26 games, and his role here is clear. He has to defend, hit open threes, and help take some of the backcourt workload off everyone else. If Ellis gives the Cavaliers clean two-way minutes, the floor looks a lot more stable.
Prediction
If Mitchell and Harden were playing, this would look simple. With both out, it is not that clean. Still, the Cavaliers have the better defense, the better frontcourt, the better turnover profile, and the better recent form. The Grizzlies can make this ugly because the pace is high and the roster is playing loose, but over 48 minutes, the Cavaliers should get enough from Mobley, Allen, and the supporting guards to finish the job.
Prediction: Grizzlies 104, Cavaliers 111
