Los Angeles Lakers fans had high hopes entering the 2025 NBA Playoffs, but a concerning Game 1 performance against the Minnesota Timberwolves has reignited a growing unease surrounding LeBron James’ postseason track record in recent years, particularly following opening-game losses.
LeBron has played in 55 Game 1s throughout his legendary career, holding a solid 31–24 record. While those numbers might suggest he’s weathered Game 1 adversity before, the deeper statistics hint at a worrisome pattern, especially in this final stretch of his career.
In Saturday night’s loss to Minnesota, LeBron finished with just 19 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists. All were below his playoff Game 1 career averages of 25.9 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 7.0 assists.
At 40 years old and in his 18th postseason run, LeBron looked a step slower and visibly disengaged for large stretches of the game. His body language was flat, and while Luka Doncic attempted to shoulder the offensive burden with 37 points, LeBron was largely ineffective in rallying the troops.
The Lakers fell 117–95 in a game where they allowed the Timberwolves to shoot 21-of-42 from three—42 open looks, with zero attempts being contested tightly, per NBA tracking data.
That leads to the big concern: When LeBron James loses Game 1, his teams go on to win the series only 52% of the time (12–11).
Compare that to when he wins Game 1, his teams are a staggering 29–2 in those series, a 93.5% success rate. Game 1, for LeBron, has historically been the tone-setter. And the recent trend makes the numbers even more alarming.
In his last three playoff appearances, every time LeBron has lost Game 1, the Lakers have been eliminated.
That includes the 2021 first-round loss to the Phoenix Suns, the 2023 Western Conference Finals sweep by the Denver Nuggets, and the 2024 first-round loss at the hands of those same Nuggets. Suddenly, that 12–11 record after Game 1 losses feels a lot less encouraging when paired with how those recent exits unfolded.
The Timberwolves’ Game 1 win wasn’t just decisive, it was systematic. They exposed the Lakers’ defensive flaws, especially on the perimeter. Allowing 21 threes on 50% shooting is simply inexcusable in a playoff game.
Most of those shots were uncontested, a product of poor closeouts, lazy rotations, and a general lack of urgency. As Magic Johnson bluntly put it, the Lakers played like it was a regular season game. They can’t afford to treat Game 2 with the same approach.
Meanwhile, Luka Doncic’s playoff history shows that a Game 1 loss doesn’t derail him. He’s 4–3 in series where he’s dropped the opener, and he tends to come back with fire.
But that comeback effort can’t fall solely on his shoulders again. The Lakers need LeBron to set the tone, Austin Reaves to show up, and the role players to close out hard on shooters.
There’s still time. The series is far from over. But the margin for error is slim, and Lakers fans have every reason to be concerned, especially if Game 2 doesn’t bring a more focused and aggressive version of LeBron James.
