Stephen A. Smith is known for his fiery takes, bold predictions, and over-the-top declarations—but his latest guarantee might be the strangest one yet. On First Take, the ESPN personality didn’t predict who would win the NBA title or which team would miss the playoffs.
Instead, he confidently guaranteed an injury, and not just any injury—he predicted that Kawhi Leonard would not be healthy by Week 1 of the NBA playoffs.
“First of all, what’s the date the playoffs start? What’s the date the playoffs start? Because the date that the playoffs start, Kawhi Leonard—you can pencil in by week one of the playoffs—he’s going to be out. Alright, that’s the problem.”
“That’s why I’m not picking the Clippers. It’s not because of their coaching, because Ty Lue is great. Jeff Van Gundy is great. James Harden deserves our props and our love for the way that brother has played. Norman Powell—oh my God—he was an All-Star for me. I love that brother.”
“Listen, they deserve a lot of credit. But as long as a reliant commodity is Kawhi Leonard? Scratch it. You can book it. What’s today’s date right here? I’m just looking for the date right here—March 25th. I’m just looking at a couple weeks. Alright, couple weeks before the playoffs—we got about three weeks.”
“Okay, call me in three weeks. Let’s see where Kawhi at. That’s it. Let’s see. Trust me—there’s no way in hell I’m depending on Kawhi Leonard. Not at all. I don’t believe it. I’m sorry… I know if he’s healthy, what the brother can do. The brother—he’s a sensational player. I know what he could do.”
“I’m saying to you, I don’t trust him. And by the way—don’t go by him dropping 30 and walking off the court healthy. Because you know what? When he walks into the locker room, he gets hurt. When he goes to shower, he gets hurt.”
“When he goes to his car, he gets hurt. When he goes to lounge afterward, he gets hurt. Anything is possible with him when it comes to missing games. I’m telling you right now—don’t depend on Kawhi Leonard.”
“If you’re going to talk about the Clippers with Kawhi Leonard, just scratch it. It ain’t gonna work. It ain’t gonna work. You can book it.”
That’s not a bet on a result. That’s not an opinion about coaching, matchups, or home court. That is literally predicting a man’s body will fail at a specific point in time, and Stephen A. Smith sounded certain.
It’s as savage as it is hilarious, and in classic Smith fashion, it’s all delivered with a theatrical flourish. This isn’t the first time he’s gone after Kawhi Leonard. He’s previously dubbed him the “worst superstar in the history of sports” and accused him of inventing “new ways to get hurt.” But this specific claim—guaranteeing Leonard will be injured by a specific date—is unprecedented, even by Stephen A. standards.
To be fair, the skepticism isn’t completely unwarranted. Kawhi’s injury history is well-documented. Since joining the Los Angeles Clippers, Kawhi Leonard has missed 44.3% of regular-season games and 33.3% of playoff games.
Let’s break it down. In 2019-20, his debut year with the Clippers, Kawhi played 57 of 72 regular-season games and all 13 playoff games. Not bad.
But in 2020-21, he played only 52 games and suffered a major injury in the second round, missing the final six playoff games. That injury was so significant, it forced him to miss the entire 2021-22 season—82 games plus the play-in.
In 2022-23, he played 52 regular-season games but appeared in only two of the Clippers’ five playoff games before going down again.
The following season, 2023-24, was Kawhi’s healthiest stretch with 68 games played, but once again, he only managed to play in two of six postseason games before succumbing to injury.
This year, it’s been another familiar story. Kawhi has only appeared in 28 of 71 games as of March 25.
The Clippers are hanging on to the 7th seed with a 40-31 record, and while they have the talent to make a deep playoff run—especially with James Harden playing at an elite level—they simply can’t get anywhere if their best player can’t suit up.
That might sound exaggerated, but again: Kawhi has missed 44.3% of regular-season games and a third of all playoff games as a Clipper. For a superstar player making max money, those are troubling numbers.
With less than three weeks left until the playoffs begin, all eyes will be on whether Stephen A.’s “guarantee” holds up. But if history tells us anything—it probably will.
In a league full of wild predictions, Smith’s latest might just be the most bizarre—and if Kawhi proves him wrong, you can bet it’ll be headline news.
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