Last season: 41-41 (lost in the first round of the 2023 playoffs)
Starters: Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, De’Andre Hunter, Saddiq Bey, Clint Capela
Bench: Patty Mills, Bogdan Bogdanovic, AJ Griffin, Wesley Matthews, Jalen Johnson, Mouhamed Gueye, Onyeka Okongwu, Bruno Fernando
The Atlanta Hawks were the definition of mediocre last season. They went 41-41 in the regular season and faced the Miami Heat in the 8-9 play-in game.
The Hawks pulled off an upset versus the Heat in South Beach and were the seventh seed in the 2023 Eastern Conference playoffs. Atlanta put up a good fight versus the Boston Celtics, but the Celtics beat the Hawks in six games.
Trae Young and Co. have now lost in the first round of the playoffs two years in a row after reaching the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021.
With the 2023-24 season right around the corner, let’s take a look at what to expect from the Hawks next season and predict how many games they’ll win.
Expectations For The 2023-24 Atlanta Hawks
Since the Hawks have lost in the first round of the postseason two years in a row after coming two wins away from making the NBA Finals in 2021, they should be expected to get out of the first round of the playoffs in 2024.
A team with Trae Young and Dejounte Murray leading the way should win more than 41 games. With John Collins gone — the forward was traded to the Utah Jazz — there will be more shots for Murray and Young to take.
Young averaged 26.2 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 10.2 assists last season while shooting 42.9% from the field, 33.5% from beyond the arc, and 88.6% from the free-throw line. The two-time All-Star recorded 40 double-doubles and was ninth in the NBA in total points, 10th in points per game, first in total assists, and second in assists per game.
Meanwhile, Murray averaged 20.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 6.1 assists while shooting 46.4% from the field, 34.4% from 3, and 83.2% from the foul line in his first year with the Hawks. Atlanta rewarded the 26-year-old with a four-year, $120 million extension this offseason.
An anonymous member of the Hawks told Keith Smith of Spotrac that the organization is “incredibly excited” Murray signed an extension. Several teams called Atlanta about potentially trading for Murray this offseason, but the Hawks were never seriously interested in parting ways with Young’s backcourt mate.
“We’re incredibly excited Dejounte Murray signed his extension,” the anonymous member of the Hawks told Smith. “Was the fit perfect last season with Trae Young? No. But you saw what it could be by the end of the year. Those guys will make it work, because they are both too good to not make it work.”
The Hawks were only 35-32 when Young and Murray were in the lineup together last season. Murray didn’t play in Game 5 versus the Celtics in the first round of the 2023 playoffs since he was suspended for making inappropriate contact with and verbally abusing a game official during Game 4. The former San Antonio Spurs star will have to keep his cool next season for Atlanta to make more noise in the Eastern Conference.
Atlanta isn’t a title contender, but the team should expect to get to the second round of the playoffs. Just making the postseason and losing in the first round can’t be considered a successful season with two All-Stars (Young, Murray) as the headliners of the roster.
Win-Loss Prediction For The 2023-24 Atlanta Hawks
Prediction: Hawks go 45-37, lose in the second round of the 2024 playoffs
Trae Young and Dejounte Murray’s chemistry on the court should be better in Year 2 after having a full season to get a sounder understanding of each other’s games. Both stars will also get to work with Hawks head coach Quin Snyder for a full season.
We have the Hawks going 45-37 next season. Atlanta was plus-1.6 points per 100 possessions when Young and Murray were on the floor together last season. That number will have to be higher next season if the Hawks want to win more than 41 games and reach our prediction of 45 wins. Under Snyder, we expect Murray and Young to be one of the best duos in the NBA in 2023-24.
The departure of John Collins may actually help the Hawks since the team’s net rating was worse with the power forward on the court last season. The usage rates of Young, Murray, De’Andre Hunter, Saddiq Bey, and Bogdan Bogdanovic will increase with Collins gone and that could lead to the Hawks’ offense becoming more explosive and efficient.
Atlanta’s defense, though, has to take a huge step forward next season for the franchise to reach the second round of the playoffs. The Hawks averaged 118.4 points last season, which was good for third in the NBA. However, Atlanta gave up 118.1 points, which was 26th in the league. The Hawks’ defense was very poor last season, so much so that the team’s high-powered offense couldn’t save games.
Defense wins championships. While the Hawks are not going to compete for a title next season, their defense has to be better for the club to get past the first round of the playoffs next season.
We believe Atlanta will take its defense to the next level since Snyder will be the man in charge for a full season. The former Utah Jazz head coach is going to demand defensive excellence starting in training camp. If his players don’t defend, they won’t play, including Young, who is sometimes a defensive liability.
The Hawks shocked many people in the 2021 playoffs when they reached the Eastern Conference Finals. While we don’t have Atlanta getting to the Eastern Conference Finals next season, winning a postseason series and making the conference semifinals is going to be a big stepping stone in the Young-Murray era.
If Young and Murray can’t co-exist in 2023-24, don’t be surprised if one of the stars is traded.
