The Charlotte Hornets host the Miami Heat at the Spectrum Center on Tuesday, April 14, at 7:30 p.m. ET in the East’s 9-10 Play-In Tournament game.
The Hornets ended the season 44-38 and ninth in the East with a 21-20 home record, while the Heat finished the regular season with a 43-39 record, going 17-24 away from home. The regular season series stands 3-1 in Miami’s favor.
The Hornets will hope LaMelo Ball can keep their Playoff dream alive after averaging 20.1 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 7.1 assists in the regular season. Brandon Miller will have to step up and be a key two-way presence after averaging 20.2 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 3.3 assists this season.
The Heat will be led by center Bam Adebayo, who is no stranger to leading the Heat through the Play-In Tournament. He averaged 20.1 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 3.2 assists in a historic season where he became the second-highest scorer in an NBA game. Tyler Herro has had an injury-riddled campaign, but he will need to perform in this do-or-die game. He’s averaging 20.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.1 assists this season.
This is a win-or-go-home matchup between two motivated franchises. The winner will go on to face the loser of the Philadelphia 76ers vs. Orlando Magic game in the 7-8 matchup, while the loser’s season will end.
Injury Report
Heat
Pelle Larsson: Questionable (leg)
Dru Smith: Out (foot)
Nikola Jovic: Out (ankle)
Hornets
N/A
Why The Hornets Have The Advantage
The Hornets were unfortunate to miss out on the 7-8 matchup after going 33-16 from January 1 onwards. As a result, they enter this matchup looking like a significantly better team than the Heat. They have a 121.9 offensive rating and a 111.1 defensive rating through this stretch, showing all the signs of an elite team.
With a fully healthy roster, the Hornets will double down on their strengths to ensure the Heat can’t keep up with them. Their biggest weapon all season has been their outside shooting, as the Hornets attempt the second-most three-pointers in the NBA (43.3) and convert them at the third-best percentage (37.8 3P%) in the NBA. The Heat defend threes at a 35.9% this season (16th in the NBA), so they’ll have their hands full trying to slow the Hornets down.
Another key advantage for the Hornets in this clash will be their effectiveness on the glass. The Hornets rank fifth in total rebounds this season (46.1 RPG), grabbing 12.8 offensive rebounds (No. 5 in the NBA). This leads to them being the second-best team when it comes to second-chance points (17.8 PPG), so the Heat will have a serious interior threat to contain as well.
The Hornets play an ultra-efficient form of basketball, which allows them to offensively punish almost every single team in the NBA. They’ve struggled against the Heat in head-to-head matchups this season, but they have the tools necessary to punish them in this clash. The Heat have the worst road record out of all 20 teams in the postseason, so Charlotte needs to rely on their well-earned home-court advantage in this clash to knock them out.
Why The Heat Have The Advantage
The Heat’s biggest advantage in this matchup might just be experience. They are the all-time leaders in Play-In wins with four. Their 2023 run through the Play-In led to them making the NBA Finals, while they also made their way from the 9-10 Play-In to the No. 8 seed last season. If there’s any team that can be considered battle-tested in the Play-in, it’s the Heat. Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro have led the team through all their Play-In success under coach Erik Spoelstra, so they’ll hope to keep that magic alive.
The Heat were the better team in their three matchups against the Hornets this season. While two wins came at the start of the season when the Hornets didn’t look close to the team we’ve seen in the last three months, the Heat also have a valuable 128-120 win from March 6, 2026, which shows they have what it takes to beat them in a do-or-die matchup. That game was the perfect reflection of Miami’s offensive status this season, as they are second in the NBA in points scored this season (120.8).
The Heat don’t have an elite defense, but they have proven defensive contributors within an established defensive system run by coach Spoelstra. The team has had a 113.6 defensive rating this season (13th best in the NBA), and will hope the best elements of their defense show up tonight. This might make contributions from defense-first players like Davion Mitchell more important, as the Heat need elite POA options to try to slow the Hornets’ fast-moving offense.
Miami has a slight rebounding edge on the Hornets as the fourth-best team in the league this season with 46.3 RPG.
The Heat might have had a bad road record this season, but the Hornets have had a barely-positive home record this season. If there’s any team they had a shot against on the road, it’s the Hornets, so they will be looking to use their experience to outwit a young Charlotte team looking to end a 10-year Playoff drought.
X-Factors
Kon Knueppel doesn’t have to worry about boosting his resume for the Rookie of the Year anymore, with the lynchpin that accelerated the Hornets’ rebuild averaging 18.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.4 assists this season. He’s looking like a winning contributor in the NBA and hopes he can make an impact in his first taste of the NBA postseason. He needs to shake off a cold spell, as Knueppel has averaged 13.3 points in the last nine games.
Keeping offense alive off the bench will be a key focus point for the Hornets, which is why Coby White might be one of their biggest x-factors. The Hornets acquired him in the winter with the sole purpose of making him their unquestioned sixth man, and he’s averaged 5.6 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists with the Hornets. He will look to disrupt the Heat’s defenses and ensure the Hornets have 48 minutes of productive guard play to win this clash.
Andrew Wiggins won a championship after stepping up and looking like one of the best role-playing wings in the NBA with the Warriors. He’ll hope to channel that version of himself for the Heat in this game. The rosters need his defensive prowess on the wing to contain options like Miller and Miles Bridges. In addition, he’s been a key scorer for the franchise as well, averaging 15.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.7 assists this season.
Davion Mitchell is averaging 9.3 points and 6.5 assists this season. The 27-year-old guard is a defensive specialist who will need to earn every penny of his NBA contract to try to stop the Hornets from scoring. His ability as a POA defender and improved scoring ability might make him the key swing player who can decide this clash.
Prediction
The Heat have shown they know how to stop the Hornets, but we think Charlotte will finally prove the doubters wrong and win one of the most important games the franchise has played in years. The Hornets have been an objectively better team than the Heat for the majority of the season, are playing at home, and have momentum on their side. While the Heat’s Play-in experience makes it impossible to count them out, we think the Hornets might have enough firepower to secure this win and move on to the next game.
Prediction: Hornets 121, Heat 116
