Game 3 starts on Thursday at 8:00 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena. The Cavaliers lead the series 2-0 after wins of 126-113 and 115-105, so this is already close to a must-win game for the Raptors.
The first two games were not identical, but the pattern was clear in both. The Cavaliers got the better guard play, the better late shot-making, and more control of the game once the half-court possessions started to stack up.
Game 2 put the pressure on the Raptors’ main creators even more. Donovan Mitchell scored 30, James Harden had 27, and Evan Mobley added 25 on 11-for-13 shooting. Those three combined for 82 points. On the other side, Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett combined for 48 points and 10 assists, but the larger result still went the Cavs’ way because they kept getting cleaner offense from their stars.
The problem for the Raptors is simple. Brandon Ingram has not been close to his normal level. Across the second half of Game 1 and the first half of Game 2, he went 0-for-7 and scored only four points. In the last six quarters of the series, he is 3-for-16 with 11 total points. That is one of the biggest reasons the Raptors are down 0-2.
Injury Report
Raptors
Immanuel Quickley: Questionable (right hamstring strain)
Ja’Kobe Walter: Questionable (illness)
Cavaliers
Thomas Bryant: Questionable (left calf strain)
Why The Raptors Have The Advantage
The first advantage is location and urgency. The Raptors are back home, down 0-2, and they already know the series cannot stay in the same shape. That usually brings a stronger first quarter, more pace, and more aggressive shot volume from the home team. They do not need to be better in every area. They need to change the script early enough that the Cavaliers are not playing from comfort again.
The second numbers angle is that the Raptors have gotten enough from some of the offense to make this more competitive. Barnes and Barrett gave them 48 points and 10 assists in Game 2, and their small lineups did push the pace better when Jakob Poeltl sat. The Raptors jumped to the 93rd percentile in fast-break frequency with those smaller groups. That is useful for Game 3 because the Raptors do not want this series turning into a slow Harden-Mitchell pick-and-roll game every night.
From a matchup standpoint, the Raptors need to get Ingram into the game much earlier and in simpler spots. Not just late-clock isolations. He needs elbow catches, mid-post touches, and chances to attack before the defense is fully loaded. The Cavaliers have been too comfortable making him catch with a crowd and then forcing him into hard decisions. If the Raptors do not fix that, the whole offense will stay too easy to map out.
The other adjustment is lineup shape. They already started searching in Game 2 by cutting Poeltl’s minutes and going smaller. The defense got worse in some of those stretches, but the pace and spacing improved. Game 3 is probably the point where the Raptors have to fully commit to the version that gives them the best chance to stress the Cavaliers, even if it costs them some size. If they play too conventionally, the Cavaliers’ stars are too comfortable.
Why The Cavaliers Have The Advantage
The first stat is the simplest one. Through two games, Mitchell and Harden have controlled the series. In Game 2 alone, they scored 57 points on 22-for-35 shooting, with 12 rebounds and 9 assists combined. That is star production with efficiency. The Raptors have not had an answer for both of them in the same game, and that is what has pushed the series out to 2-0.
The second edge is that the Cavaliers are not relying on only those two. Mobley gave them 25 in Game 2 on 11-for-13 shooting, and in Game 1 Max Strus came off the bench and scored 24. That matters because the Raptors cannot just load everything toward Mitchell and Harden and assume the rest of the offense will dry up. The Cavaliers have already shown three different paths to scoring in the first two games.
From a basketball standpoint, the Cavaliers should keep leaning into the same actions. Harden has done a good job putting Raptors bigs in space, getting to the middle, and feeding Mobley and Allen in simple spots. The smaller groups helped the transition game a bit, but they got hit hard defensively. In Game 2, the Raptors had a 128.1 defensive rating without Poeltl on the floor. That is a huge problem if they stay small again in Game 3.
The other reason the Cavaliers are in control is that they have made the Raptors play against set defense too often. Immanuel Quickley missing the first two games has mattered here. Without him, Jamal Shead had to play 38 minutes in Game 2 after averaging 22 in the regular season, and Toronto lost a lot of pull-up shooting and early offense at the point. If Quickley sits again, the Raptors are still going to have trouble getting into actions cleanly.
X-Factors
Dean Wade is a big one for the Cavaliers because his work on Ingram has changed the tone of the series. Ingram’s last six quarters have been a mess statistically, and Wade has been a big part of that by making catches hard and taking away rhythm. Wade does not need points to matter. If he keeps Ingram inefficient, the Cavaliers can keep the Raptors in a very narrow offensive lane.
Jarrett Allen is another important piece even without big scoring totals. He gave the Cavaliers much value through screens and paint presence, even while scoring only four points. In a game where the Raptors may go smaller again, Allen’s screening, finishing, and rebounding can decide a lot of possessions.
Immanuel Quickley is the biggest Raptors swing player if he plays. He missed the first two games with the hamstring issue, and the Raptors clearly missed another real ballhandler and shooter. Even if he is not fully himself, he changes the setup because he can push pace, run pick-and-roll, and keep the defense honest off the catch.
Jakob Poeltl is the other one because this team has not found the right balance with him yet. His minutes got cut hard in Game 2, and the smaller lineups opened the floor a bit, but also hurt the defense. Game 3 probably depends on whether Poeltl can give the Raptors enough rebounding and paint defense without killing the pace and spacing. If he can, they have a more stable path. If not, the game gets harder very quickly.
Prediction
Game 3 should be better from the Raptors because the urgency is obvious and the list of needed changes is short. They need more from Ingram, they need cleaner point guard play, and they need to pick a lineup style and fully commit to it. At home, that should make the game more competitive.
The bigger problem is still the same, though. The Cavaliers have had the two best guards in the series, and now Mobley is giving them a third scorer at a high level. Unless the Raptors change the quality of their offense, not just the pace of it, they are going to keep playing from behind. The safer read is a much tighter game, but still one where the Cavaliers have more answers late.
Prediction: Raptors 108, Cavaliers 112
