The Dallas Mavericks host the Denver Nuggets at American Airlines Center on December 23, 2025, and it’s a weirdly important one for both sides for totally different reasons. The Nuggets come in 21-7 and third in the Western Conference, while the Mavericks are 11-19 and 11th in the West.
These teams already played once this season, and the Mavericks stole it. They beat the Nuggets 131-121 on December 1, a game where Anthony Davis erupted for 32 points in the win.
The superstars are doing superstar things, too. Nikola Jokic is averaging 28.9 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 10.8 assists while shooting 60.7% from the field. Davis is putting up 21.0 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 2.9 assists on 51.7% from the field.
Injury Report
Mavericks
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Dante Exum: Out (right knee surgery)
Klay Thompson: Doubtful (left knee soreness)
Max Christie: Doubtful (illness)
P.J. Washington: Questionable (right midfoot soreness)
Miles Kelly: Questionable (G League, two-way)
Moussa Cisse: Questionable (G League, two-way)
Dwight Powell: Questionable (illness)
Brandon Williams: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Nuggets
Christian Braun: Out (left ankle sprain)
Aaron Gordon: Out (right hamstring strain)
Tamar Bates: Out (left foot surgery)
Jonas Valanciunas: Probable (illness)
Peyton Watson: Probable (right trunk contusion)
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
The cleanest argument for the Mavericks is the matchup math when the Nuggets show up short on wing defense again. With Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun out, and Peyton Watson not 100%, the Nuggets lose a lot of their best “hold the line” bodies, the guys who usually take the toughest perimeter assignments and still have the size to help at the rim. That matters because the Mavericks can play through Davis on the block, force extra help, then hunt kickouts or short-roll reads.
And the blueprint already exists. In that first win over the Nuggets, the Mavericks caught fire from deep, and the game turned into one of those nights where every defensive mistake becomes three points. Ryan Nembhard cooked in that one too, and that kind of secondary creation is basically the Mavericks’ lifeline when the roster is banged up.
They also have the “we can still win even if it gets ugly” card if Davis plays like he did last time out. He just dropped 35 points and 17 rebounds in the loss to the New Orleans Pelicans, and that was with the Mavericks throwing away a big lead late. If he brings that same force again, he can drag this into a one-possession game no matter how sloppy it gets.
The key is discipline. The Mavericks can’t turn this into a track meet where every miss becomes a Nuggets run, and they can’t let the Nuggets’ shooters walk into rhythm looks. If the Mavericks control tempo, keep the ball moving, and make it a half-court fight, they’ve got a real chance to steal another one.
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
The Nuggets’ case is louder, and it starts with the fact that their offense has been a machine this season. They’re putting up 125.1 points per game, they’re shooting 51.3% from the field, and they’re drilling 40.3% from three. That is ridiculous efficiency for a team with this much volume.
Even better, they aren’t just winning, they’re smashing teams in the math that usually decides games. The Nuggets are sitting at a 9.1 net rating, which is basically “contender behavior” for a team that still has another gear once the defense tightens up.
They also roll into this one with momentum that feels real, not fake. They just tied a franchise record by hitting 24 threes against the Utah Jazz, and they’ve won seven of their last eight. When a team is shooting like that and playing with that kind of confidence, close games start turning into separation fast.
And the biggest thing is the road swagger. The Nuggets are chasing their 12th straight road win. That’s not normal. That’s the type of trend that screams, “We travel well, we don’t panic, we execute late.”
If the Nuggets play a normal game, meaning they don’t hand away live-ball turnovers and they get a decent whistle at the rim, it’s hard to see the Mavericks having enough two-way stability for 48 minutes with so many rotation pieces questionable.
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Prediction
The Mavericks can absolutely make this uncomfortable, especially if Davis turns it into a paint war and the Mavericks hit early threes as they did in the first meeting.
But the Nuggets have the higher floor, the better spacing, and the cleaner shot quality night-to-night.
Prediction: Nuggets 123, Mavericks 115
