The Dallas Mavericks host the Denver Nuggets at American Airlines Center on Wednesday at 9:30 p.m. ET.
The Nuggets come in at 27-13 (third in the West), while the Mavericks sit at 15-25 (12th in the West).
The Nuggets just beat the Pelicans 122-116, with Jamal Murray dropping 35 points and 9 assists in the win. The Mavericks last played the Nets and picked up a 113-105 win.
This matchup has already been spicy this season, because the Mavericks lead the season series 2-0. With both rotations beat up, it’s a real “who can survive the math” game: threes, free throws, and taking care of the ball.
On the star side, the Mavericks are riding rookie Cooper Flagg, who’s at 19.1 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game. For the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is still putting up MVP video game numbers at 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists, even though he’s still on the injury report.
Injury Report
Mavericks
Anthony Davis: Out (left finger sprain)
Dante Exum: Out (right knee surgery)
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Max Christie: Doubtful (illness)
P.J. Washington: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Brandon Williams: Questionable (illness)
Nuggets
Tamar Bates: Out (left foot surgery)
Christian Braun: Out (left ankle sprain)
Cameron Johnson: Out (right knee bone bruise)
Nikola Jokic: Out (left knee bone bruise)
Jonas Valanciunas: Out (right calf strain)
Bruce Brown: Questionable (right knee inflammation)
Jamal Murray: Questionable (left ankle sprain/illness)
Aaron Gordon: Probable (right hamstring strain)
Spencer Jones: Probable (left ankle inflammation/illness)
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
First thing, they’ve already shown they can solve this matchup. A 2-0 season series edge isn’t an accident, it usually means you’ve found the weak points and keep poking them.
They also defend better than people think. Even without Anthony Davis for the next several weeks, the Mavericks sit at a 113.5 defensive rating, which is top-10 territory, and that matters a lot against a Nuggets team that wants to turn every possession into a clean look.
Even with the offense looking clunky (109.8 offensive rating), the Mavericks can hang around if they keep games ugly and physical. And the sneaky swing stat here is turnovers: they’re at 15.5 per game, so if they clean that up even a little, it’s a huge upgrade against a Nuggets team that lives off efficient possessions.
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
The Nuggets basically walk into the building with an offense that travels. They’re putting up 122.7 points per game, shooting 50.2% from the field, and bombing 40.2% from three. That’s nuclear-level efficiency.
Even more important, they don’t beat themselves. The Nuggets are at just 13.1 turnovers per game, and that’s exactly how you survive a road game when bodies are missing.
And the biggest “yeah, this can still work” indicator is the playmaking. The Nuggets average 28.6 assists per game, which tells you the ball still pops, even when the rotation gets weird.
X-Factors
Max Christie has turned into a real piece for the Mavericks this season, averaging 12.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.1 assists. If he plays through the illness and hits shots early, it changes everything for their spacing, because the Nuggets won’t be able to load up on Flagg as aggressively.
Daniel Gafford is another swing guy. He’s at 7.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game, and his rim protection can keep the Mavericks from getting chipped to death at the basket. If he can win the “verticality without fouling” battle, the Mavericks can survive the minutes where their shot creation dries up.
For the Nuggets, Peyton Watson has to keep being the “wait, this dude is doing what?” guy. He’s at 13.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.0 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game, and he’s shooting 40.8% from three. If he’s confident, the Nuggets get a second wave of offense that the Mavericks’ scouting report can’t totally erase.
Bruce Brown matters because the Nuggets might need his glue more than his scoring. He’s at 7.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 2.2 assists, and if his knee holds up enough to defend and rebound, the Nuggets can keep their lineups functional when things get messy.
Prediction
This feels like a “math game” more than a “pretty basketball” game. The Nuggets’ shooting and low-turnover profile is just hard to bet against, and even with injuries, they’ve shown they can manufacture offense on the road.
Prediction: Nuggets 118, Mavericks 114
