The Mavericks host the Warriors at American Airlines Center on Thursday, January 22, at 7:30 PM ET.
The Warriors come in at 25-20 as the No. 8 seed, while the Mavericks sit at 18-26 as the No. 12 seed.
The Mavericks just smoked the Knicks 114-97 behind Max Christie’s career-high 26 points and Cooper Flagg’s 18-point return. The Warriors, meanwhile, just dropped one to the Raptors 145-127, and now they’re trying to stabilize without Jimmy Butler.
This is already the second meeting of the season. The Warriors took the Christmas game 126-116, even with Flagg going off for 27. So yeah, the Mavericks remember.
On the season, Flagg is putting up 18.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.1 assists. Christie adds 12.9 points with a real shooting bump, and he’s been on one lately.
For the Warriors, it’s still Stephen Curry driving the whole thing at 27.1 points, 5.1 assists, and with Butler done for the year, the volume and gravity crank up even more.
Injury Report
Mavericks
Anthony Davis: Out (left finger sprain)
Dante Exum: Out (right knee surgery)
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Moussa Cisse: Questionable (illness)
Daniel Gafford: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Miles Kelly: Questionable (G League – Two-Way)
Ryan Nembhard: Probable (G League – Two-Way)
Warriors
Jimmy Butler III: Out (right knee, ACL tear)
Seth Curry: Out (left sciatic nerve irritation)
Li Cryer: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Malevy Leons: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Gary Payton II: Questionable (right foot soreness)
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
First thing, the Mavericks have been way more comfortable at home. They’re 13-11 in their building, and that matters because the Warriors have been a different team away from home at 8-13.
Second, the Mavericks can push the tempo and make this a stamina game. They’re playing fast, with a 101.6 pace, and they’ve leaned into it because their half-court shot creation takes hits when key guys sit. If they can get this into a track meet, Curry has to defend more possessions, and that’s where legs start to go in the fourth.
Third, the Warriors are walking into this one shorthanded in the exact areas that normally win them road games. Butler’s out for the season, and Payton is questionable, so that’s a ton of point-of-attack defense and “calm the game down” offense gone or compromised. That creates a lane for the Mavericks’ wings to attack, spray it out, and let the crowd feed the run.
And the vibe piece is real, too. The Mavericks are on a three-game win streak, and they’ve been stacking good stretches with Flagg back in rhythm. You can see them hunting momentum, not just surviving possessions.
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
The Warriors still bring the cleaner “night-to-night” profile. They score 116.9 points per game and give up 114.0, which is the difference between looking like a playoff team and looking like a lottery team that occasionally gets hot. The Mavericks are basically the opposite, 114.2 scored and 116.6 allowed, so they’re living on offense swings.
The shooting gap also leans Warriors. They’re at 36.2% from three as a team, while the Mavericks sit at 34.4%. In a matchup where both defenses can give up runs, the team that hits the extra four threes usually wins.
And obviously, Curry is still the loudest thing on the floor. The Mavericks can play well for 42 minutes and still lose because Curry gets two flurries that erase everything. With Butler out, Curry’s usage and shot diet get even crazier, but the upside is also simpler, the entire offense becomes “solve this problem or die.”
Plus, they already did it once. Christmas wasn’t a fluke, the Warriors won by 10 and proved they can win this matchup when it turns into a three-point math game.
X-Factors
P.J. Washington feels like the swing guy the Warriors don’t want to deal with right now. He’s at 14.6 points and 7.4 rebounds, and he can punish small lineups on the glass while also hitting enough jumpers to keep the floor spaced. If he turns extra possessions into second-chance points, the Warriors’ margin for error disappears fast.
Naji Marshall is the other one. He’s quietly giving the Mavericks 14.2 points on 54.0% from the field, and he’s exactly the kind of downhill wing who benefits when a defense loses one or two perimeter stoppers. If Payton sits or looks limited, Marshall attacking those gaps can be the difference between “good offense” and “this is a problem.”
Klay Thompson makes this one personal whether he says it or not. He’s at 12.0 points this season, and his shooting has been volatile, but this is the exact kind of game where he can hit four threes in six minutes and flip the entire night. The Mavericks don’t need vintage Klay, they just need one heater.
On the Warriors side, Jonathan Kuminga has the biggest spotlight for weird reasons. He’s at 12.2 points and 6.1 rebounds, and with the trade noise plus Butler out, the Warriors basically need him to be aggressive, not floating. If he plays like he’s trying to prove a point, the Warriors get the secondary scoring they’re missing.
Moses Moody is another sneaky one. He’s at 10.7 points, and if he’s hitting spot-ups, it lets the Warriors survive the non-Curry minutes without hemorrhaging. In a game like this, two made threes from Moody can be worth more than a “solid” 8-point night from someone else.
And Draymond Green is the ultimate temperature setter. He’s at 8.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and if his ankle lets him actually move, he’s the one guy who can slow the Mavericks’ pace by controlling the possession quality. If he can’t, this turns into a track meet, and that’s playing with fire.
Prediction
I’m leaning Mavericks here, mostly because the matchup is begging for a chaotic, high-possession game, and the Warriors are missing too many stabilizers. Curry will go nuclear at least once, but the Mavericks’ home edge and their current momentum should let them survive the storm.
Prediction: Mavericks 120, Warriors 116
