The Nuggets host the 76ers at Ball Arena on Tuesday, March 17, at 10:00 p.m. ET.
The Nuggets enter at 41-27, fifth in the West, and 18-13 at home, while the 76ers are 37-31, ninth in the East, and 17-15 on the road.
The Nuggets are coming off a 127-125 overtime loss to the Lakers, while the 76ers just beat the Blazers 109-103 after also taking down the Nets.
The season series is 1-0 for the Nuggets after a 125-124 overtime win in the first meeting on Jan. 5, so this is a chance for them to complete the sweep and for the 76ers to prove their recent patchwork run is not a fluke.
Nikola Jokic is still the center of everything for the Nuggets, averaging 28.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 10.5 assists on 57.3% from the field and 38.8% from three. Jamal Murray has been the co-star they need, putting up 25.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 7.1 assists while shooting 47.9% from the field and 42.4% from three.
For the 76ers, Quentin Grimes has become a real emergency scorer in this injury-heavy stretch, averaging 13.5 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 3.4 assists on the season, while VJ Edgecombe is at 15.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 3.9 assists.
That is the tension here: the Nuggets have the best player and the better offense, but the 76ers are playing with nothing to lose, and they have gotten real production from young guards who were not supposed to carry this much.
Injury Report
Nuggets
Peyton Watson: Out (right hamstring strain)
DaRon Holmes II: Out (G League – On Assignment)
Curtis Jones: Out (G League – Two-Way)
KJ Simpson: Out (G League – Two-Way)
76ers
Joel Embiid: Out (right oblique strain)
Paul George: Out (league suspension)
Tyrese Maxey: Out (right finger tendon strain)
Kelly Oubre Jr.: Out (left elbow sprain)
Johni Broome: Out (right knee surgery recovery)
Jabari Walker: Out (illness)
Dalen Terry: Questionable (left shoulder impingement)
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
The cleanest edge is offensive quality. The Nuggets own the best offensive rating in the league at 121.5, score 120.7 points per game, shoot 49.2% from the field, and lead the NBA in three-point percentage at 39.1%. They also average 28.2 assists per game, so this is not just Jokic making miracles out of nothing. The Nuggets create efficient shots at scale, and the 76ers are walking into that with a 115.6 defensive rating that sits in the lower half of the league.
The matchup gets even tougher for the 76ers when you zoom in on what they are missing. Joel Embiid is out. Tyrese Maxey is out. Paul George is out. Kelly Oubre is out. And without Embiid, the 76ers have posted a -4.6 net rating this season, with their offensive rating dropping to 112.3 and their defensive rating rising to 116.8. That is a brutal setup against a team that already has the league’s most efficient offense and the best offensive hub in basketball.
The Nuggets also have the continuity edge in the half-court. Jokic and Murray give the Nuggets a two-man game that can solve almost any coverage, and Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, and Tim Hardaway Jr. all fit naturally around that core. The 76ers have actually competed harder than expected lately, but a lot of that has come from random hot stretches and survival minutes. That works against thin opponents. It is much harder to sustain against a playoff-caliber offense in Ball Arena.
There is also direct matchup evidence here. The Nuggets already beat the 76ers 125-124 in overtime in the first meeting, and now they get the rematch at home. The 76ers deserve credit for winning back-to-back games against the Nets and the Blazers, but those were both against beatable teams. The Nuggets are a different kind of test, especially when Jokic is healthy, and the supporting cast is mostly intact. I think that matters more than the 76ers’ recent feel-good stretch.
Why The 76ers Have The Advantage
The best case for the 76ers starts with looseness and rhythm. They have won two straight and three of their last four, and this version of the team is playing freer because the hierarchy is simple now. Grimes gets shots. Edgecombe gets on-ball reps. Justin Edwards attacks gaps. Adem Bona runs and protects the rim. It is not a sustainable formula over a long stretch, but in one game it can be annoying because there is less overthinking and more straight-line aggression.
There is also a style angle that gives them some hope. The 76ers are averaging 9.4 steals and 5.7 blocks per game, and when they are active enough defensively, they can turn games into a chaos contest instead of a clean half-court execution battle. That matters because the Nuggets’ one offensive weak spot is not shooting or passing. It is that they can get a little loose with the ball at times, averaging 13.0 turnovers per game. If the 76ers create enough broken possessions, they can flatten the talent gap for a while.
The first meeting also showed that the Nuggets are not guaranteed to cruise just because the names on paper look bigger. The 76ers lost by one in overtime in that game, and they got there by competing on the glass, moving the ball, and making enough perimeter shots to stay attached. This roster is thinner now, but the basic lesson still holds. The Nuggets can be pushed into a close game if the opponent keeps pressure on the offense and makes the supporting cast execute late.
And then there is the simple pressure dynamic. The Nuggets are the team that should win, so the burden sits on them. The 76ers are playing with house money right now. If Grimes stays hot, if Edgecombe keeps giving them creation, and if table-setting from secondary guards is not available on the other side because Murray has an off shooting night, the game can get weird. The 76ers are not the better team. But it is live enough to be irritating for three quarters if the Nuggets do not take control early.
X-Factors
Christian Braun is a real swing piece for the Nuggets because he is the connector who keeps everything from becoming too Jokic-dependent. He is averaging 10.9 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.9 assists, and against a thin 76ers wing group, his cutting and transition finishing can matter a lot. If Braun turns defensive stops into easy points and punishes the attention Jokic draws, the offense gets even harder to manage.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is the volatility shooter in this matchup. He is posting 13.8 points and shooting 41.0% from three for the Nuggets, and he just had 20 against the Lakers. The 76ers are likely to collapse extra bodies toward Jokic whenever possible, so Hardaway is the kind of player who can make that help look stupid very quickly. If he hits early threes, the 76ers will have to choose between dying slowly inside or dying fast on the perimeter.
Justin Edwards matters for the 76ers because they need one more live scorer who can do something with a tilted floor. He is only putting up 5.5 points on the season, but his recent opportunity has been much bigger, with 19 against the Nets and 21 against the Blazers. If Edwards gives the Sixers real wing scoring again, the 76ers have a much better chance to keep their offense functional when the defense loads up on Grimes and Edgecombe.
Adem Bona is the other 76ers x-factor because the interior battle is the whole game. Bona is averaging 4.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks in limited minutes, and the raw line undersells the energy he brings. The 76ers do not need him to outplay Jokic. They need him to survive those minutes, contest at the rim, and keep the glass from turning into a practice drill. If Bona holds up, the 76ers can at least keep the structure of the game intact.
Prediction
The 76ers deserve credit for hanging around and stealing games lately, but this is a bad spot for the Cinderella act. The Nuggets have the best offense in the league, the best player in the matchup by a mile, and a huge continuity edge against a 76ers rotation missing Embiid, Maxey, George, and Oubre. The Sixers can make this annoying for stretches because Grimes and Edgecombe have real juice right now, but over 48 minutes, the Nuggets should create too many good shots and put too much pressure on a patched-together defense. I think the 76ers compete, then Jokic and Murray close it.
Prediction: Nuggets 123, 76ers 111
