The Nuggets host the Clippers at Ball Arena on Friday, January 30, with tip-off set for 9:00 PM ET.
The Nuggets come in at 32-16 and are sitting No. 3 in the West, while the Clippers are 22-24 and are currently No. 10.
The Nuggets just beat the Nets 107-103 on Thursday, while the Clippers took down the Jazz 115-103 on Tuesday.
These teams have already seen each other once this season, and the Nuggets took that first meeting 130-116, so the Clippers are playing catch-up in the season series.
Even with injuries wrecking rotations, the star power is loud. Nikola Jokic is putting up 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists this season, and Jamal Murray is at 25.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 7.3 assists.
For the Clippers, James Harden is at 25.4 points and 8.1 assists, and Kawhi Leonard is at 27.9 points with 49.0% from the field.
This one matters because it’s a stress test. The Nuggets are trying to keep a contender pace with half the frontcourt limping, and the Clippers are fighting for air in the play-in traffic.
Injury Report
Nuggets
Aaron Gordon: Out (right hamstring strain)
Christian Braun: Out (left ankle sprain)
Cameron Johnson: Out (right knee bone bruise)
Tamar Bates: Out (left foot surgery)
Nikola Jokic: Questionable (left knee bone bruise)
Clippers
Bradley Beal: Out (left hip fracture)
Bogdan Bogdanovic: Out (injury management, left hamstring)
Derrick Jones Jr.: Out (right knee sprain)
Kawhi Leonard: Questionable (left knee contusion)
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
This is the cleanest logic: even short-handed, the Nuggets can simply outscore you. They’re at 120.1 points per game with 49.5% from the field, and they’re bombing teams with 39.5% from three. That shooting profile travels, and it’s exactly the kind of thing that punishes a Clippers team that already turns it over a lot.
The other sneaky edge is ball security. The Nuggets only cough it up 12.5 times per game. That matters because the Clippers are built to be disruptive, they average 8.8 steals, and Kawhi plus Dunn can get into your handle. If the Nuggets keep the giveaways down, the Clippers lose the easiest way to generate offense.
And with Jokic planning to return tonight, the Nuggets now have structure. Murray is having a monster season (25.9 points, 7.3 assists), and that two-man game becomes a three-man game fast with shooters and rim runners spacing correctly.
Why The Clippers Have The Advantage
The Clippers’ best argument is defense-driven chaos, even if the raw numbers don’t scream “elite.” They’re allowing 112.8 points per game, and they play a style that can force ugly possessions when they’re locked in. The Nuggets’ defense has been more leaky than you’d expect from a top seed, and if the Clippers can keep this in the mud, that’s their lane.
Offensively, Harden is still the engine. He’s at 25.4 points and 8.1 assists, and when he gets downhill into the paint, it’s either layups, free throws, or kick-out threes. If Kawhi plays, it gets even simpler: give him the ball, let him hunt matchups, and live with the midrange diet because it stabilizes your offense when the game gets tight.
The Clippers also have one huge matchup lever: size and finishing at the rim through Ivica Zubac. He’s at 14.6 points and 10.9 rebounds on 60.6% shooting. With the Nuggets missing key bodies, Zubac can turn this into a foul-and-rebound game.
X-Factors
Peyton Watson is the Nuggets’ swing piece. He’s averaging 14.5 points and 5.0 rebounds, and he’s hitting 41.6% from three. If he’s making shots, the Clippers can’t overload Murray, and their help defense starts arriving a step late.
Jonas Valanciunas is another big one because he changes the shape of the Nuggets’ offense without Jokic. He’s at 9.0 points and 5.2 rebounds in a limited role, but he’s efficient (57.5% from the field), and he can punish switches with pure size. If he wins the non-Murray minutes with simple post seals and offensive boards, that’s how the Nuggets survive the injury avalanche.
For the Clippers, Kris Dunn is the pest factor. He’s only at 7.9 points, but he adds 3.1 assists and 1.6 steals, and his whole job is to make Murray work for every catch. If Dunn turns Murray’s night into a grind, the Clippers can hang around long enough for Harden to steal it late.
And keep an eye on John Collins as the “quiet points” guy. He’s at 13.3 points on 55.4% shooting and 42.6% from three, which is a brutal combo if the Nuggets are rotating late. One or two early corner threes from Collins changes how the Nuggets help at the rim, and suddenly Harden’s driving lanes open up.
Prediction
With Jokic expecting to return, and Kawhi truly questionable, I’m leaning Nuggets anyway. Their offense is just more reliable; they protect the ball, and the Clippers still have too many nights where the shot quality looks fine, but the points don’t match it.
Prediction: Nuggets 118, Clippers 111
