The Los Angeles Lakers host the Houston Rockets at Crypto.com Arena on December 25, and it’s one of those Christmas games that can swing the vibe of a whole month. The Lakers come in at 19-9 and sitting fourth in the West, while the Rockets are 17-10 and sixth, so this isn’t a “fun holiday matchup.” This is a real standings game with real weight.
It’s also the start of the regular-season series between these two, which means there’s no “we already saw this movie” comfort blanket. Both teams can set the tone right away and leave a mark going into the new year.
The headliners are obvious. Luka Doncic is sitting at 34.1 points, 8.8 assists, and 8.6 rebounds this season, and Shams Charania reported he’s expected to return on Christmas after missing time with a lower leg issue. On the other side, Kevin Durant has been exactly what the Rockets wanted, putting up 25.2 points a night on 50.9% from the field.
Injury Report
Lakers
Gabe Vincent: Out (lumbar back strain)
Luka Doncic: Questionable (lower left leg contusion)
Jaxson Hayes: Questionable (left ankle soreness)
Rui Hachimura: Probable (right groin, injury management)
Rockets
Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee, ACL repair)
Dorian Finney-Smith: Questionable (left ankle surgery)
Alperen Sengun: Questionable (left calf tightness)
Jae’Sean Tate: Questionable (left wrist contusion)
Why The Lakers Have The Advantage
The Lakers’ biggest edge is simple: shot quality. They’re living near the top of the league in efficiency looks, sitting fourth in effective field goal percentage at 56.9, which tells you the offense isn’t surviving on prayer threes and tough middies. They’re generating clean chances, and that matters a lot against a team that wants to turn every possession into a wrestling match.
And if Doncic plays, the Lakers get that “one pass breaks your defense” threat that stops the Rockets from loading up on one star. The Rockets can switch, blitz, and rotate all they want, but once you add a second elite creator to the floor, you start seeing corners get opened and closeouts get sloppy. That’s when the Lakers’ shooters and cutters get paid.
The other underrated piece here is how Austin Reaves and LeBron James can punish the Rockets for overcommitting to physicality. The Rockets crash the glass and pressure the ball, but that aggression can also hand you free points when you stay poised. If the Lakers keep the turnovers reasonable and force the Rockets into half-court defense instead of runouts, that’s a game script that favors the home team.
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
The Rockets are basically built to ruin your comfort. They own the third-best offensive rating in the league at 121.0, and they’re also sitting top-10 in defensive rating at 113.1, which is the profile of a team that doesn’t need a perfect shooting night to win.
The backbreaking part of the matchup is the glass. The Rockets lead the NBA in offensive rebound percentage at 40.6. That’s not “they hustle.” That’s “they turn your stops into extra possessions until you break.” If the Lakers don’t finish possessions with rebounds, it won’t matter how well they defend the first action, the Rockets will just keep pounding the reset button.
And then there’s the spacing. The Rockets are shooting 40.0% from three, second-best in the league, which means you can’t cheat off shooters to build a wall in the paint. If the Lakers send extra help at Durant or overreact to Alperen Sengun’s touches, the Rockets have been good enough to make teams pay.
One more thing: this current Rockets stretch has been chippy and intense, and it shows in how they play. Even when they lose, they keep games in the mud and force opponents to win late. If this turns into a possession-by-possession grinder in the fourth, the Rockets will feel right at home.
Lakers vs. Rockets Prediction
If Doncic plays, I’m leaning Lakers in a close one because the offense gets too organized, and the shot creation gets too overwhelming in the biggest moments. The Rockets can absolutely steal it with second-chance points and a hot shooting stretch, but I trust the Lakers’ top-end creators a little more in a tight Christmas finish.
Prediction: Lakers 121, Rockets 116
