The Denver Nuggets host the Minnesota Timberwolves at Ball Arena on Christmas Day, with the late window set for 10:30 PM ET on ABC/ESPN.
The Nuggets come in at 21-8 and sit third in the Western Conference. The Timberwolves are 20-10 and sit fifth, so yeah, this is basically a Western power check on national TV.
These two have already seen each other twice, and the Nuggets have owned it so far. The Nuggets lead the season series 2-0 after wins on October 27 (127-114) and November 15 (123-112).
Star power is obvious. Nikola Jokic is putting up 28.9 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 10.9 assists on 60.4% from the field. Anthony Edwards is right there as a pure problem at 28.7 points on 49.0% shooting.
Injury Report
Nuggets
Christian Braun: Out (left ankle sprain)
Aaron Gordon: Out (right hamstring strain)
Cameron Johnson: Out (right knee injury management)
Tamar Bates: Out (left foot surgery)
Timberwolves
Jaden McDaniels: Questionable (left oblique contusion)
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
This game screams “execution,” and that’s where the Nuggets feel like the safer bet. Even with injuries stacking up, they still play a cleaner brand of basketball than almost anyone because Jokic turns every possession into a decision tree the defense has to guess on. And when teams start guessing, the Nuggets start getting layups, corner threes, and those back-breaking cuts that make you call timeout just to breathe.
The biggest edge is that the Nuggets can win ugly without panicking. They’re scoring 125.2 points a game, and that’s not just “hot shooting,” that’s an identity. They get organized fast, they punish switches, and they rarely waste a possession with late-clock nonsense.
Home floor matters here too. The Nuggets have been solid at Ball Arena (9-5 at home), and Christmas games tend to swing on stretches where one team gets tight and the other team stays composed.
The other sneaky angle: motivation and urgency. The Nuggets just took a tough road loss to the Mavericks, and they’ve looked like a team that hates letting losses linger. That kind of bounce-back mindset is real when your entire offense is built on discipline.
Why The Timberwolves Have The Advantage
The Timberwolves have the defensive profile to make this game miserable, and honestly, that’s the blueprint if you want any chance of slowing a Jokic offense. They allow 113.5 points a night, and they’ve been rolling lately with 10 wins in their last 12 games.
They also bring more ways to win possessions that don’t show up as “highlight plays.” Rudy Gobert is averaging 11.1 rebounds and shooting 73.1% from the field, which basically means the Wolves can steal extra possessions with boards and still get efficient looks at the rim.
And if the Nuggets are down multiple wings, the Timberwolves can hunt matchups. Julius Randle has been a steady secondary engine at 22.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 5.5 assists, which matters because it keeps the offense from turning into an Edwards-only show.
One thing to watch: if Jaden McDaniels can go, that’s a huge swing defender to throw into the Edwards-Randle-Gobert ecosystem. If he can’t, the Timberwolves still have enough size and physicality to make this a grind, but it gets harder to survive the Nuggets’ cutting and spacing for 48 minutes.
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Prediction
I’m taking the Nuggets at home, even with the injury stuff. The Timberwolves’ form is real and the defense travels, but the Nuggets have already won twice in this matchup, and Jokic-led teams usually solve the puzzle by the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Nuggets 126, Timberwolves 118
