The Rockets host the Pelicans at Toyota Center on Sunday, January 18 at 6:00 PM ET.
The Rockets enter at 24-15 (5th in the West), while the Pelicans come in at 10-34 (15th in the West).
The Rockets are coming off a 110-105 win over the Timberwolves on Friday, powered by Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun. The Pelicans dropped their last one 127-119 to the Pacers, and the defense is still bleeding points.
These teams already saw each other on December 18, when the Pelicans took a 133-128 win.
Durant has been ridiculous this season at 26.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 5.6 assists a night, while Sengun sits at 18.9 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists. For the Pelicans, Zion Williamson is putting up 22.6 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 5.1 assists, and Trey Murphy III has been a flamethrower at 22.2 points with strong shooting splits.
Injury Report
Rockets
Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee ACL repair)
Tari Eason: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Pelicans
Dejounte Murray: Out (right Achilles rupture)
Herbert Jones: Out (right ankle sprain)
Jose Alvarado: Out (left oblique strain)
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
This one starts with the Rockets’ baseline: they actually defend. They’re allowing 110.7 points per game, and they pair that with 117.1 points per game on the other end. The Pelicans are giving up a brutal 122.3 points per game, which is basically asking to get run out of the gym every night.
The shooting gap matters too. The Rockets are at 47.8% from the field and 37.0% from three, so if the Pelicans help even a step late, it turns into threes and layups. The Pelicans sit at 46.5% from the field and 34.3% from three, which is fine, but not “keep up in a track meet” fine.
And if the Pelicans can’t get stops, they have to win on the glass or by taking care of the ball. The problem is the Rockets rebound at a high level (49.2 per game) and can play big without losing speed.
Why The Pelicans Have The Advantage
The Pelicans’ best path is simple: Zion downhill, over and over, until the Rockets prove they can keep him out of the paint without loading up three bodies. Zion’s 22.6/7.1/5.1 line tells you everything, he’s a pressure test for any defense because he collapses the floor by himself.
There’s also one sneaky team stat that helps: the Pelicans turn it over 14.6 times per game, while the Rockets are at 15.6. If this turns into a sloppy game, that’s how you steal road wins without being the “better” team.
And they already proved they can hit them with enough offense in this matchup, winning 133-128 in the first meeting. If Trey Murphy stays hot and they get real production outside of Zion, the Pelicans can make this uncomfortable.
X-Factors
Amen Thompson is the chaos lever for the Rockets. He’s at 18.5 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 5.1 assists this season, and when he’s playing downhill, the Rockets don’t even need “pretty” offense. If he wins the transition battle and turns defense into quick points, the Pelicans’ weak defense gets exposed fast.
Reed Sheppard is a real swing piece too. He’s averaging 10.6 points and hitting 38.5% from three this season, and the Rockets need that clean spacing, especially with Fred VanVleet out. If Sheppard hits early threes, the Pelicans can’t overload on Durant and Sengun without paying for it.
Steven Adams is the blunt instrument. He’s only at 6.7 points and 8.6 rebounds, but his impact is about second chances and punishment. If the Rockets dominate the offensive glass, it breaks the Pelicans’ spirit quick because they already struggle to string stops together.
For the Pelicans, Derik Queen matters because somebody has to survive the interior minutes. He’s at 10.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.7 assists in his rookie season, and if he can rebound without fouling, it keeps the Pelicans from getting buried in the non-Zion stretches.
Saddiq Bey is another big one. He’s giving them 15.2 points and 5.7 rebounds, but the key is whether his jumper shows up, because the Rockets will live with contested Bey shots if it means keeping Zion boxed in. If Bey hits, the Rockets’ help defense gets punished.
And yeah, Herbert Jones being out is gigantic. He’s only scoring 9.5 points, but he brings 1.7 steals and usually takes the hardest perimeter assignment. Without him, the Pelicans have fewer ways to make Durant work for his touches.
Prediction
I’m taking the Rockets. The Pelicans’ defense has been too shaky all year, and the injury list guts the exact guys who help you survive on the road. If the Rockets play with any discipline, this turns into a “third quarter breakaway” type of night.
Prediction: Rockets 121, Pelicans 112
