Golden 1 Center gets Kings vs. Clippers on Sunday night. The Kings are 21-57 and 14th in the West. The Clippers are 39-38 and ninth. The Kings are 14-25 at home, and the Clippers are 18-21 on the road.
The Kings come in off a 117-113 win over the Pelicans. The Clippers are coming off back-to-back losses, first 114-104 to the Trail Blazers and then 118-99 to the Spurs.
That matters because the Clippers are still fighting for play-in position, while the Kings are just trying to finish this stretch with some decent basketball.
The season series is 2-1 for the Clippers, but the Kings took the last one 118-109 on March 14. The first two games went to the Clippers, 131-90 and 114-111. So this is not a total mismatch, even if the standings say otherwise.
For the Kings, DeMar DeRozan is at 18.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 3.8 assists, while Maxime Raynaud has given them 12.1 points and 7.4 rebounds.
For the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard is at 28.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.6 assists, and Darius Garland is putting up 18.9 points and 6.8 assists.
The Kings are missing too much front-line talent, but the Clippers still have to prove they can take care of business on the road.
Injury Report
Kings
Domantas Sabonis: Out (left knee meniscus repair)
Zach LaVine: Out (right 5th finger tendon repair)
Keegan Murray: Out (left ankle sprain)
Russell Westbrook: Out (right toe injury management)
De’Andre Hunter: Out (left eye retinal repair)
Patrick Baldwin Jr.: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Drew Eubanks: Out (left thumb UCL repair)
Isaiah Stevens: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Clippers
Bradley Beal: Out (left hip fracture)
Isaiah Jackson: Out (right ankle sprain)
Yanic Konan Niederhauser: Out (right Lisfranc ligament tear)
Why The Kings Have The Advantage
The only real Kings case starts with pace and looseness. They are 18th in pace at 99.3, and they still move the ball better than people expect, with 25.6 assists per game. If they can keep this game open and avoid long half-court stretches, they at least give themselves a shot.
There is also some recent life here. The Kings are 7-7 since March 8, and they have won two straight at home. They just beat the Pelicans, and before that they won in Toronto behind big scoring from DeRozan. This is still a bad team, but it is not playing dead.
The matchup angle is simple. The Clippers are not a dominant defensive team. They have a 116.2 defensive rating and a +1.1 net rating, so this is not some elite group that shuts teams off for 48 minutes. If DeRozan gets to his spots and Raynaud can finish inside, the Kings can stay in range.
Why The Clippers Have The Advantage
The bigger edge is obvious. The Clippers are the better team on both ends. They are 11th in offensive rating at 117.3. The Kings are at 111.3 and own a brutal minus-10.0 net rating. The Kings also have a 121.3 defensive rating, which is one of the worst marks in the league. That is the cleanest summary of the game.
The Clippers also shoot the ball much better. They are at 48.5% from the field and 36.5% from three. The Kings are at 46.6% from the field and 34.0% from three. That gap matters even more with the Kings missing Sabonis, LaVine, Murray, and Westbrook. There is just less room for error when that much offense is out.
The Kings do rebound a little better on raw numbers, but the Clippers should still control the shape of the game because they defend the possession better and have the best scorer on the floor. Kawhi Leonard is playing at a star level, and Garland gives them a second real creator. The Kings have one dependable scorer left in DeRozan, but the Clippers have more ways to get to a decent shot.
There is also the standings context. The Clippers are ninth and still pushing for better play-in position. The Kings are 14th and short-handed. That does not guarantee effort, but it does tell you which team has more reason to be sharp.
X-Factors
Devin Carter is one of the few Kings guards who can change the pace of the game. He is at 8.1 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 2.3 assists. The Kings need his defense and energy because they do not have much creation left. If Carter can pressure the ball and give them anything extra in transition, the Kings can hang around longer than expected.
Nique Clifford is the other one. He is giving the Kings 8.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.3 assists. He is not there to carry offense. He is there to make open shots, defend his spot, and keep the game from falling apart when DeRozan sits.
John Collins is a real swing piece for the Clippers. He is at 13.6 points and 5.3 rebounds while shooting 56.0% from the field and 41.1% from three. Against a Kings team this thin in the frontcourt, Collins should get clean looks if the Clippers move the ball the right way.
Kris Dunn also matters because he keeps the game organized. He is at 7.5 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 3.6 assists, and he still gives the Clippers point-of-attack defense. If Dunn keeps the Kings out of easy offense and the Clippers avoid sloppy turnovers, the talent gap should show.
Prediction
This should be a Clippers win. The Kings have too many key players out, their defense has been awful all season, and the Clippers still have the best scorer and the cleaner offense. The Kings can make it annoying for a while because they are home and the Clippers have not been fully reliable, but over 48 minutes the gap is too wide.
Prediction: Kings 108, Clippers 119
