Sunday night brings a real West game at Chase Center at 9:00 PM ET. The Warriors are 36-41 and 10th in the conference. The Rocketsare 48-29 and fifth. The Warriors are 21-17 at home, and the Rockets are 20-19 on the road.
The Warriors come in on a three-game skid after a 118-111 loss to the Cavaliers. The Rockets are moving the other way. They just handled the Jazz 140-106 for their fifth straight win. That difference in form is the first thing in the matchup.
The season series is tied 1-1. The Rockets won the first meeting 104-100. The Warriors took the second one 115-113 in overtime without Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler.
For the Warriors, Stephen Curry has put up 27.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists in 39 games, while Brandin Podziemski is at 13.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.8 assists.
For the Rockets, Kevin Durant is at 25.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.7 assists, while Alperen Sengun has produced 20.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 6.2 assists.
Curry is listed as questionable with right patellofemoral pain syndrome, but Steve Kerr said he is expected to play.
Injury Report
Warriors
Jimmy Butler III: Out (right ACL surgery)
Al Horford: Out (right soleus strain)
Moses Moody: Out (left patellar tendon surgery)
Quinten Post: Out (right foot injury management)
Stephen Curry: Questionable (right patellofemoral pain syndrome)
Seth Curry: Questionable (left adductor injury management)
Gui Santos: Probable (right pelvic contusion)
Rockets
Steven Adams: Out (left ankle surgery)
Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee ACL repair)
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
Everything on this side starts with Curry. The Warriors have a 119.3 offensive rating and a 4.5 net rating with him on the floor this season. Without him, their offense drops to 110.6. That is the whole game. If he is close to normal, the Warriors go from thin to dangerous right away.
The Warriors also still move the ball at a high level. They average 29.0 assists per game, and that mark is second in the West. That matters against a Rockets defense that is strong, but not unbeatable if you can shift it side to side and make Sengun defend multiple actions in one trip.
There is also some three-point pressure here. The Warriors make 15.9 threes per game and take 44.6 attempts. If Curry returns and the Warriors get normal spacing around him, the Rockets will have to defend much more ground than they did in the first two meetings. The Warriors do not need to dominate the paint if they can win the math game outside.
The other edge is simple. The Warriors have already beaten the Rockets once without Curry. That does not mean much by itself, but it does show the matchup is not too big for the rest of the roster. If Podziemski, Draymond Green, and the frontcourt hold up well enough, the Warriors have enough shot-making to keep this close late.
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
The Rockets have been better for almost the entire season, and the numbers are clear. They are 48-29, they have won five straight, they own a 118.2 offensive rating, and they sit at 113.2 on defense. That is a strong two-way profile. The Warriors are 36-41, have lost three straight, and own a 115.1 defensive rating.
The Rockets also own the glass. They average 48.0 rebounds per game and lead the league with 15.0 offensive rebounds. That is a major point in this matchup because the Warriors are already short in the frontcourt, with Horford and Post out. If the Rockets win second-chance points, they can survive a lot of missed jumpers.
The form is also real, not fake. The Rockets have won seven of nine, and during the current five-game streak Durant has averaged 23.2 points while shooting 52.6%. The offense has been cleaner too. Against the Jazz, the Rockets shot 55.4% from the field, hit 15 threes, and had six players in double figures.
The matchup logic is straight to the point. The Warriors turn it over 15.7 times per game. The Rockets are active, physical, and long. If they keep the Warriors off the foul line, punish the glass, and make the supporting cast create off the dribble, they have the cleaner path to control the game.
X-Factors
Kristaps Porzingis is a big swing piece for the Warriors. His full-season line is 17.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 2.6 assists, and he has been the main scoring release valve during Curry’s absence. The Warriors need his size and shooting in this game because the Rockets will sit on Curry if he plays and load up on the ball. If Porzingis scores efficiently, the Warriors can keep the floor open. If he does not, the offense gets tight fast.
Draymond Green is the other one. He is at 8.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.4 assists, but this matchup is not about his scoring. It is about whether he can keep the Warriors organized, help on Sengun without giving up easy cuts, and move the ball quickly enough to make the Rockets defend. If Green controls those details, the Warriors stay alive.
Reed Sheppard is the clear Rockets X-factor. He has given them 13.6 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 3.5 assists, and he just had 12 points and seven assists against the Jazz after a 27-point game against the Bucks earlier in the week. If Sheppard gives the Rockets a steady second guard next to their main creators, the Warriors cannot just load up on Durant.
Tari Eason also matters. He is at 10.5 points and 6.3 rebounds, and his value is simple in this matchup. He gives the Rockets extra rebounding, extra defense, and extra activity on broken plays. Against a Warriors team that is already thin, that kind of pressure can flip a close quarter fast.
Prediction
The Curry return gives the Warriors a real shot, and that changes the tone of the game. But the Rockets are still the better bet. They are deeper right now, they are much stronger on the glass, and they come in with the better form and the better season profile. The Warriors can score enough to make this tight, especially if Curry looks sharp early, but the Rockets should wear them down over 48 minutes.
Prediction: Warriors 112, Rockets 117
